382
FXUS61 KOKX 111440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably warm today and Saturday.

3) Showers expected Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. A period of
heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms are possible, with a
a threat for localized flash flooding.

4) Dry and seasonable conditions early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A few degrees above normal and noticeable lower humidity today
with weak CAA and offshore flow in wake of early morning cold
frontal passage. Cloudy with a few sprinkles this morning,
becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Generally light northerly
flow giving way to late day sea breeze along the south coasts.

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight under moderated Canadian
high, with lows in the 40s across outlying areas. Potential for
some patchy fog radiational fog across outlying coastal areas
and river valleys.

Seasonably warm and dry on Saturday with increasing clouds and
gradually increasing humidity in strengthening onshore flow
regime as high pressure moves offshore and warm front approaches
from the SW.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Models in good general agreement with a weak southern shortwave
along the Gulf coast today, shearing northeast towards the
region Sat Night in response to a broad northern stream trough
sinking into the Great Lakes and NE US this weekend. At the
surface, high pressure slides offshore Sat, with a weak
southern frontal system lifting into the Ohio Valley/Mid
Atlantic on Saturday and then through the region Sat Night into
Sun Am.

Forcing is not overly strong, but deep SW flow aloft and
increasing lift ahead of approaching southern shortwave, aided
by RRQ of 60 kt ULJ along with developing 30 kt LLJ, advecting
in and lifting an increasingly tropical airmass (Gulf moisture
raising PWATs to 2 1/4", weakly unstable (tall skinny CAPE) and
deeply saturated environmental profile with 12-14k ft warm
layer) will be sufficient to develop widespread showers (perhaps
isolated thunderstorm) over the region Saturday Night into
Sunday morning ahead of an approaching warm front/trough and
frontal wave.

Primary forecast challenge is the location of the warm front
and associated frontal wave with respect to the local area
Saturday Night/Sunday AM. Fairly consistent signal in medium
range operational models for an axis of heavy rainfall amounts
along the track of the frontal wave/warm front in response to
the enhanced moisture convergence/lift of the tropical airmass.
Along with some brief training potential of heavy
downpours/embedded convection (MBE vectors less than 10kt
aligned with W-E aligned warm front ahead of surface wave).

Medium range operational models have expressed this thru
somewhat consistent signal of a 1-3" swath of rain in the
vicinity of this feature (and starting to showing in the last
few hours of 60 hr CAM window). A narrow swath of these higher
amounts seems reasonable as environment would be conducive to
2"/hr rainfall rates with any training of downpours/convection.
This environment and synoptic/mesoscale set-up presents at
least an isolated flash flood threat, with potential for it to
increase to a scattered flash threat if warm front/surface wave
eventually align over the region.

Outside of this narrow area of concern, a consistent signal for
an areawide averaged 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch of rainfall Sat night
into Sun AM. GFS and ECMWF AI ensembles have both trended higher
to a moderate prob for greater than 1" in 24 hr over the last
few runs, and now showing signs of a low prob (10-20%) for 2"/24
hrs. This is inline with the trends and probs of the NWS
National Blend of Models. So overall trend is increasing for a
widespread 1/2 to 1 1/2" of rain, and potential for a swath of
1-3" of rain (with low predictability on exact location).

Expect refinement in terms of rainfall amount, rates and
location details, and corresponding flash flood threat, over the
next 36 hrs as the event is fully resolved by CAMS and synoptic
features better initialized.

Drying, but seasonably warm and humid, conditions are likely
late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as the deep moisture
axis moves offshore in wake of shortwave and surface wave. A
cold front follows Sunday evening into Sunday night, with an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week with temps
running slightly below normal and low humidity level.

High pressure moves offshore for midweek with return flow
giving way to temps moderating slightly above normal and
increase humidity levels for mid to late week.

A cold front may press down on the area late in the week, but
overall limited chances for precip till late week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through tonight and shifts offshore on
Saturday.

VFR.

Mainly a N-NW flow today at 5 to 10 kt with some potential sea
breeze development for coastal terminals later today. Light and
variable winds overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance for winds at KLGA to become NE at times. Sea breeze at
KJFK might not occur, but if it does, a chance that southerly
winds last only a few hours before shifting back to NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday morning: MVFR to possibly IFR at
times in showers and potential thunderstorms. SE wind gusts
15-20 kt at times for NYC terminals along portions of the coast.

Sunday Afternoon: Improving conditions with an eventual return
to VFR.

Monday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts 15-20 kts.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions expected through Saturday as high pressure
builds in and slides across the waters.

S winds could increase to 15 to 20kt and seas to around 4 ft on
the ocean waters Sat Night into Sunday AM with a weak frontal
wave moving across the ocean waters.

Sub SCA conditions expected once again early next week as high
pressure build into the waters.

Surf Zone...A moderate rip current risk today with residual 3
ft southerly wind swells, and 1 ft se swell. The rip current
risk becomes low on Saturday with several 1 S/SE wind waves and
swells. Rip current risk likely increase to moderate on Sunday
with increasing onshore flow and building S/SE wind waves.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JC/JT
MARINE...NV