962
FXUS61 KOKX 041436
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
936 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday. A quick
moving low then moves through Wednesday night. High pressure
builds in on Thursday and remains in place through early Friday.
Then, a Canadian low brings through a cold front Friday night
into Saturday morning. High pressure follows the cold front
until another low pressure system impacts the region Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure builds in at the surface today as strengthening
low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes heads farther north.
The strong pressure gradient over the region will slowly relax
today, allowing winds to diminish, mainly from mid to late
afternoon onward. WNW at 15 to around 20 mph sustained this
morning will diminish to around 10 to 15 mph by late this
afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph (highest across the Twin Forks
of Long Island) this morning will diminish to 20 to 25 mph by
late this afternoon. Highs will be near normal, in the upper 50s
to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure passes well south of the area
tonight. Clear skies are expected, but winds are not expected to
go completely calm, so outlying areas will not see optimal
radiational cooling conditions (unless winds decouple, then
temperatures will be cooler than what is currently forecast).
Despite this, it may get cold and calm enough inland for areas
of frost to develop. Since the growing season is over in those
areas, a Frost Advisory was not issued.

A clipper system approaches the area Wednesday and into
Wednesday night. The surface low passes to the north and the
better chances of precipitation will be across the northern
areas. Another period of gusty westerly winds develop late
Wednesday night in the wake of the low as the system continues
to deepen as the low moves off the New England coast by
Thursday morning, then heads northward into the Canadian
Maritime. Gusts are likely higher than last tonight`s but will
likely also remain below Wind Advisory criteria. For winds and
gusts used a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th.

Low pressure exits northeast as high pressure builds in on
Thursday into Thursday night. It will still remain breezy
Thursday as a strong pressure gradient remains over the region,
but this gradient will continue to relax into the afternoon and
evening, leading to winds ramping down through the day Thursday.

A bit of a warm up on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to
middle 60s, and cooler for Thursday, with highs in the lower to
middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in place through the day Friday. Dry
weather is anticipated through then.

A Canadian low will pass to our north, dragging through a cold
front Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring with
it rain and wind. Rain is mainly timed for overnight Friday
night while winds are expected to increase through the day
Friday, peaking Friday evening and early Friday night.

Following the cold front, we dry out again until another system
impacts us Sunday into Monday. Timing and magnitude still vary
among the guidance during this time frame, so for now only
carrying slight to chance POPs. Breezy conditions will again
return with this system.

Highs remain in the 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday. A
cooling trend is expected from Sunday through Tuesday as highs
near normal on Sunday are expected to not get out of the 40s for
much of the area on Monday. It will be a chilly Thursday night
as lows dip into the 20s in the interior and into the 30s to
around 40 elsewhere. SW flow and rainfall will lead to a
significantly warmer night Friday night with lows in the mid 40s
to low 50s. Thereafter cooler nights return to round out the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds into the region today.

VFR.

WNW winds gusting to around 30kt into midday and lasting through
most of the afternoon. Winds decrease slightly towards 21z, and then
diminish and gusts end this evening. Sustained winds eventually
falling below 10kt tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds expected to remain left/south of 310 magnetic through this
evening. End time of gusts late day/early evening may be off by an
hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers at night SW-S winds 15g25kt in the
afternoon, becoming W G20-30kt at night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds around 15g25kt possible.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds 10-15,g20-25kt possible. Rain with sub VFR
at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds over the non-ocean waters have to diminished to below 35
kt, widespread gale gusts have ended, thus have converted Gale
Warnings to SCAs. The gales on the ocean will continue until
early afternoon, then also be converted to SCAs. SCA gusts
continue through today and possibly into tonight, especially
for the eastern forecast waters. Winds fall below 25 kt for
non- ocean waters this evening, and by around midnight for the
ocean waters. Waves of 4 to 9 ft on the ocean and 3 to 6 ft on
the sound subside through the day today falling below 5 ft on
the sound by this evening and after midnight on the ocean
waters.

Then with the passage of a clipper system passing to the north
of the waters Wednesday night and deepening off the New England
coast, another period of gale force gusts are likely across all
the waters, and have continued to highlight this in the HWOOKX,
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Strong offshore winds along with astronomical low tides, with a
super full moon Wednesday morning, will lead to abnormally low
water levels for the low tides Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Water levels could fall to 2 ft below MLLW levels. This
can lead to hazardous navigating conditions near the coast.

Gales should end by midday Thursday as the pressure gradient
continually weakens into the day as high pressure builds in.
Waves on ocean waters should drop below SCA levels Thursday
night. Gales will again be possible on ocean waters with SCA-
level gusts on non ocean waters as our next cold front
approaches and passes late Friday into Saturday morning.
Conditions improve late Saturday and remain below SCA-levels
until our next system passes Sunday into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP/BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP