957
FXUS61 KOKX 212109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
509 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tornado Watch continues until 9pm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One to two more bands of heavy downpours and thunderstorms
into this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorm and flash
flood threat expected to pass through the region through this
evening.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches
today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Approaching mid-level shortwave and pre-frontal trough will be
trigger and focus for a couple of rounds of thunderstorms moving
through the region through this evening.

Moderate unstable environment combined with moderate
directional and low-level shear and low-level helicity will
continue to support potential for multi-cell clusters, bowing
line segments and isolated supercells through about 9pm across
the watch area. Damaging wind gusts will be main threat, but
isolated tornado threat remains. In addition, isolated instances
of flash flooding possible with as these scattered storms move
over areas of northeastern NJ, southern portions of Lower Hudson
Valley, and SW CT that saw as much 3 to 4 1/2" of rain earlier
this afternoon.

Improving conditions expected after 8-10pm from w to e as pre-
frontal trough moves east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*High Impact Aviation Weather Day Today*

A frontal system impacts the region today, bringing several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Conditions have decline to MVFR with SHRA/TSRA scattered across
the area. A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms
impact the terminals later this afternoon and evening, which may
persist into the first part of tonight. The primary concern
with any thunderstorms will be the strong gusty winds, which
could see gusts up to 50kt or greater. IFR or lower conditions
will be possible this afternoon through the tonight especially
for terminals east of NYC. After SHRA/TSRA clears by 3Z-6Z,
still anticipating MVFR/IFR conditions. We`ll improve to VFR by
15Z tomorrow.

Southerly flow continues 10-15kt G20-25kt. S/SE after sunrise
with speeds 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Wind gusts diminish
tonight, but speeds remain around 10kt or so with winds becoming
SW. Tomorrow, winds W/WSW 10-15kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA/TSRA today could be off by a couple of hours.

IFR or lower possible at times in SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly gusts 25-30kt expected across ocean waters, LIS, and
southern and eastern bays of LI until Wednesday morning.

SCA seas will likely continue thru Wed night, mainly in
southerly swells of 5-7ft.


Rip Currents:
A high rip current risk is expected through Wednesday with no
headline changes. Some areas could come close to high surf
criteria, mainly tonight into Wednesday. A high surf advisory
could eventually be needed, however by the time the swell height
and period increase, the swell direction becomes less
orthogonal to the coastline, limiting the threat high surf
conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005-006-009.
NY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...NV