777
FXUS61 KOKX 221150
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
750 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Friday and moves
offshore Friday night through Saturday. A frontal system
approaches Sunday and moves through the area Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure then gradually builds in for the middle to
end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hurricane Erin continues to track northeast into the open
Atlantic today as high pressure builds in from the west. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for further information
on Erin. The high will build overhead tonight, then moves
offshore. Dry weather is expected through tonight. Winds
continue to diminish today, and then a light return flow sets up
tonight. Temperatures return to normal levels with clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather continues as offshore high pressure continues to
drift east, and as a frontal system approaches to the west.
Temperatures remain near normal Saturday, and slightly above
normal Saturday night as a southerly flow continues, and dew
points increase. Also clouds will increase in advance of an
approaching frontal system

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Shower/thunderstorm chances late Sunday into Monday. Mainly
  dry conditions thereafter.

* Generally normal temperatures into Monday night, then slightly
  below for the remainder of the week.

The global models are in decent agreement on the upcoming
synoptic pattern. Upper ridge axis shifts east of the area
Sunday. A deep closed low over eastern Canada with an h5 trough
over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS then follows for much of the
rest of the extended timeframe. This will keep the local area in
predominately west/southwest flow aloft.

At the sfc, a cold front approaches on Sunday into early Monday with
precipitation chances increasing from west to east Sunday afternoon.
PWATs do increase to 1-1.5" ahead of the front, which suggests the
possibility of heavier rainfall with any deeper convection. However,
depending on the timing of the frontal passage, which looks to be
late on Sunday into very early Monday, instability will be limited
per BUFKIT soundings, so not expecting much in the way of widespread
thunder. North and west of NYC would see the best chance of thunder,
late Sunday afternoon/evening. The front passes through the area on
Monday and is offshore by early Tuesday. High pressure then builds
back in from the Central Plains, for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hurricane Erin passes well east of the area this morning as high
pressure gradually builds from the west, then southwest later today.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for further
information on Hurricane Erin.

VFR through the period. NE winds have diminished at most terminals
for the time being, but then increase to N 10-15g20kt for the latter
portion of the morning push. Winds and any gusts should then end
towards 18-20z this afternoon. Weak late day S seabreezes develop
for most terminals, otherwise a Light/variable S/SSW flow for the
evening push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts will vary among the city terminals, with JFK having prevailing
gusts to 20kt into midday. Gusts end as early as 18-19z in the
afternoon, and possibly earlier. Winds will likely be veered a bit
more NE for KLGA. Late day S seabreeze likely for JFK/KLGA, and SE
for KEWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday and Monday: Scattered showers Sun PM through Mon PM, isolated
tstm possible in the aft/eve. MVFR conds possible Sun AM, and Sun
night into Mon AM.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Hurricane Erin continues to track northeast into the open
Atlantic today as high pressure builds in from the west. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for further information
on Erin.

Winds and gusts have diminished more quickly than expected, and
Small Craft Advisories remain on the ocean waters west of
Moriches Inlet through midday Saturday, and east of Moriches
Inlet through the day Saturday, when ocean seas will have fallen
below 5 feet, as swells subside. Conditions then remain below
advisory levels into mid next week.

For the non ocean waters conditions remain below advisory
levels into mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic Ocean
Beaches through today as residual swell from Tropical cyclone Erin
continues a life threatening surf and rip current threat. A High Rip
Current Risk goes through early Saturday evening, and may be needed
into Sunday morning for the Atlantic Ocean beaches as swells
continue to slowly subside. Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center for further information on Erin.

Surf has already peaked, and is expected to subside to 5 to 9 ft
across western beaches and 6 to 10 ft across eastern through the
morning, and then gradually fall further to 3 to 6 ft for western
beaches and 4 to 7 ft for eastern beaches towards the late day and
evening.

Areas of dune erosion and beach flooding are still expected for this
morning`s high tide, but the potential for localized overwashes is
low as water levels will be lower than previous cycle last evening.
The threat for dune erosion will therefore not be as widespread and
more scattered for this evening`s high tide, with beach erosion and
escarpment the primary threat with a west to east sweeping surf.

The threat for widespread moderate coastal flooding has come to and
end, with generally minor to localized moderate flooding threat for
the today and this evening`s cycles with coastal flood advisories
and also a coastal flood statement in place. Therefore additional
rounds of minor flooding are likely, particularly for the
southern bays of LI and NYC, and along the oceanfront.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...