502
FXUS61 KOKX 180106
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
906 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area tonight. High pressure
builds in Friday then moves offshore during Saturday with a
warm front moving to the north. A cold front moves through the
area late Sunday. High pressure builds in for early next week. A
frontal boundary will be nearby for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cancelled the heat advisory as heat indices will continue
falling below 95 degrees. The cold front is also beginning to
enter the area and dew points will begin falling into the 60s in
the next few hours.

Winds will shift to the NW behind the front, allowing for a for
a drier airmass to advect into the area. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 60s to middle 70s with the warmest locations being
along the coast and for the NYC Metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday, the area will be behind the departing cold front to the
east. High pressure over the Great Lakes regions will gradually
build into the area during the day Friday and into Friday night.
This high pressure will keep the area dry with skies being mostly
clear to partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s.

Lower dew points into the low 60s to upper 50s will allow for
much more comfortable conditions. Lows Friday night will be able
to drop into the 60s for most with upper 50s possible for the
far interior NW portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near zonal upper flow Saturday gives way to a upper trough
passing to the north Sunday into early Monday. At the surface
high pressure will be moving offshore Saturday with a warm front
moving across the region. Weak surface low pressure passing
through the Great Lakes and into upstate New York and into New
England Saturday night into Sunday will bring a cold front
across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
later Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will see a return to warm and
humid conditions with heat indices 90 to 94 across much of the
region, and dew points in the lower 70s. And with high
precipitable water values any scattered thunderstorms could
produce briefly heavy rainfall. Timing of the cold front passage
remains consistent and looks to be Sunday late
afternoon/evening. Much drier air returns behind the cold front
with temperatures returning to more seasonal normals Monday
through Wednesday. The cold front that moved through
Sunday/Sunday night will remain south of the region, and
possibly return north as a warm front later Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing warm and humid conditions back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front passes across the terminals this evening. High
pressure then builds in from the west through Friday.

VFR.

SW winds to start will shift to the W and then NW behind the
cold front passage this evening. Wind speeds around 15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt this evening. Gusts should diminish by 06z, but
could linger around 20 kt at NYC terminals.

NW winds 10-15 kt Friday morning gradually weaken in the
afternoon, falling below 10 kt in the evening. A few gusts up to
20 kt possible in the morning and early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the W-NW may be off by 1-2 hours this
evening.

End time of gusts tonight may be off by 1-3 hours.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible Friday morning and early
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night-Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers possible with a chance of
thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Sunday Night-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA
conditions to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet late this
afternoon into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some
occasional near shore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High
pressure will build in on Friday, with conditions remaining
below SCA thresholds from then through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for rip current development remain moderate this
evening, and surf height will be 2-3 ft. The moderate risk will
continue Friday and Saturday, with winds from the NW-W and a
remaining S swell Friday, and S winds and a southerly swell
Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...