030
FXUS61 KOKX 301941
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure slowly moves east towards coastal New England
through tonight. Weak high pressure follows Friday into
Saturday. Less rain and more dry conditions with temperatures
eventually returning back to near normal.

2) Rain returns to the forecast Sunday into early next week as
low pressure approaches. This may linger into midweek. Heavy
rain possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers continue across parts of the region this afternoon.
With weak forcing and weak low level instability, there is a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures remain below normal
through tonight.

Drier conditions settle in tonight into Friday as the upper
level trough shifts east of the area and weak high pressure
gradually builds in. Vertical forcing will decrease with more
subsidence coming into place on Friday.

There could be some patchy fog late tonight into early Friday
morning for parts of the region with moisture laden grounds,
very weak winds and some radiational cooling, allowing
temperature and dewpoint differences to be minimal.

The trough will still have some embedded smaller amplitude
shortwaves moving across. Farther east across southeast
Connecticut where there will be relatively colder air aloft,
there could be a shower or thunderstorm Friday as a result.
Instability still generates but will be weak.

Temperatures return closer to normal values with an overall
greater amount of sunshine expected Friday. Wind flow eventually
returns to more southerly in the afternoon near the coast with
sea breeze influence.

The dry conditions continue into Saturday and Saturday night
with weak high pressure over the area. More synoptic southerly
flow Saturday into Saturday night will allow for a warm and
more humid airmass. Temperatures Saturday are around the same
values as the previous day but warmer for eastern portions of
the region. However, expect clouds to increase ahead of next
area of low pressure approaching from the west. Min temperatures
increase relatively from Friday night to Saturday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper level trough approaches the area late in the weekend
into early next week. The trough and shortwave activity may
linger into midweek as indicated by the GFS. At the surface,
a low pressure system approaches from the west. The associated
cold front moves across early next week but could linger nearby
with the GFS.

With the increasing synoptic southerly flow late weekend into
early next week, the PWATs increase back to around 2 inches.
Very humid airmass develops and there could be heavy downpours
with showers and thunderstorms. Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall early next week with potential of training cells with
multiple rounds of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to slowly move away from the terminals today.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday.

Gradual improvement to VFR will occur late this afternoon and
into this evening. Some showers remain possible through this
evening and will cover this threat with a TEMPO. Any showers
will be capable of producing some wind gusts to 20kt. There is a
chance for some patchy fog tonight, but confidence not high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

Winds will remain northerly through the evening around 10kt, then
speeds decrease to 5kt or less and may become variable at times.
Winds remain light for at least the first part of Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed for flight category changes.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm near
KGON.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Monday: Mainly VFR, chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient will keep conditions below SCA through
the weekend. Winds and seas increase more early next week with
potential SCA conditions across the ocean and possibly parts of
the non-ocean waters as well with the advance of the next low
pressure system.

Rip Currents:

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at all local ocean beaches
today. An offshore N wind, with SSE swells 3 to 4 ft at an 8 sec
period drive this risk.

The risk remains moderate for both Friday and Saturday. Winds turn
more onshore during the afternoon Friday, though speeds lighten and
swells begin to lower.

On Saturday, an initial light wind picks up out of the S into the
afternoon at around 10-15kt. This will enhance the S swell with surf
heights at around 3 feet. The risk for rip currents will be higher
later in the afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC/JT
MARINE...JM/MW