607
FXUS61 KOKX 111121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to shift offshore as another area of
high pressure builds into eastern Canada. A coastal storm will
impact the area Sunday through Monday before gradually moving
offshore through the middle of next week. High pressure then builds
in from the Great Lakes for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A northern stream upper level low can be seen quite well on
water vapor satellite imagery as it dives down over the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, southern stream energy is helping to spin up a
surface low off the southeast coast.

Over our area, high pressure continues to shift offshore and bring
us a SE/E return flow. This flow continues to increase moisture
and expansive stratus stretching from the Mid-Atlantic Coast up
through southern New England is showing this.

These clouds likely stick around today, with temperatures
reaching normal highs for early October (mid to upper 60s).
Most guidance, especially the CAMs, are showing light QPF moving
onshore by the afternoon. Still thinking this is overdone as
forecast soundings show a relatively shallow moist layer with a
dry sub-cloud layer below it. There is some lift so kept PoPs,
but went lower than the NBM. This may also end up being more
drizzle instead of light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

*Coastal flood watches and warnings are in effect for the entire
 coastline on Sunday and Monday. Widespread erosion is also
 possible along the ocean beachfront. See the coastal flooding
 section below for more details.

*Damaging wind gusts of 50-55 mph are possible across Long
 Island, Brooklyn, and Queens Sunday night through Monday. A
 few gusts to 60 mph remain possible across the Twin Forks and
 immediate coastline of Long Island. A High Wind Watch remains
 in effect.

*Strong winds are possible across the rest of the region, with
 gusts 30-40 mph possible.

*Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are expected from Saturday night
 through Monday night, with the highest amounts expected
 closest to the coast. Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is
 possible in typically flood-prone areas.

There has been no significant changes to the forecast with this
update. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty across the
guidance with the phasing of the aforementioned northern stream
and southern stream and how the coastal low will react. The lack
of agreement seems to be coming from messier set up of the
southern stream low as it is much broader and has several
perturbations rotating through and moving up the east coast. In
turn the guidance could be struggling on surface low pressure
center and if it should develop other areas of low pressure or
not. The GFS has overall trended weaker, but the latest ECMWF
has trended more aggressive again. Opposite of what the two were
showing 24 hours ago. This gave enough uncertainty to stick
with Watch headlines for now. As for timing, there has been
overall agreement in a later timing. This would mean some
impacts lasting longer into Monday and have extended the watch
timing to cover this.

While the strength and location of low pressure will have an
impact on exactly how strong winds can get, windy and wet
conditions are possible for several days regardless. Rain
becomes likely Sunday morning and then will continue through
Monday night. Rain could be moderate at times but as mentioned
the long duration and dry antecedent conditions help lower the
overall flood threat.

As low pressure pulls away at the end of the short term period,
the pressure gradient remains tight over the area as high
pressure starts to build in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coastal storm continues to move away from the coast on Tuesday.
High pressure starts to build towards the area during the middle of
the week before reaching the eastern seaboard at the end of the
week. A few showers are possible Tuesday morning near the coast.
While the steadiest precipitation and most active of the weather
exits Tuesday, rain chances persist at times through the period
across the east end through Thursday.

Winds may remain breezy with a tightened pressure gradient between
the exiting low and building high Tuesday and Wednesday, before this
should begin to slacken by Thursday. PWATs fall toward or under half
an inch by Wed night or early Thursday with the cool, dry flow. With
the drier air, a cooler air mass comes with it, and temperatures
fall from the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday, down into the upper 50s
and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain to the north through tonight. Low pressure
develops along the southeast coast and tracks northward towards the
area late tonight into Sunday.

Mainly VFR conditions this morning with brief MVFR ceilings
around 3 kft possible. Sprinkles are also possible this morning.
Pockets of -RA and MVFR ceilings are possible this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR prevails through sunset. MVFR ceilings begin
developing near the coast this evening, overspreading the area
through Sunday morning along with -RA.

Light NE flow to start will become E through the morning along
with wind speeds increasing. A few coastal terminals could have
winds briefly become SE this afternoon. Wind speeds around 8 to
12 kt expected this afternoon with potential of gusts 15-20 kt
near the coast this evening. NE flow continues to strengthen
tonight with gusts 20-25 kt, then 25-30 kt, strongest near the
coast late tonight into Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Pockets of MVFR and a few sprinkles possible this morning.
Additional amendments possible for potential MVFR ceilings this
afternoon into tonight.

Timing of gusts may be off by a few hours and may be delayed
several hours from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday and Monday: Rain. MVFR or lower conditions possible. n
bands of heavier rain, mainly at the coastal terminals. NE winds
20-30kt, G35-45kt at KISP, 15-25kt, G30-40kt at the NYC
metro/CT terminals, and G20-30kt at KSWF. Strongest winds late
Sunday into the first half of Monday. LLWS possible with about
50 kt at 2,000 feet for all terminals except KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming likely
in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will bring strong winds and large waves to the
waters Sunday through Monday. A Storm Warning is now in effect
for the ocean waters, with a Gale Warning in effect for the NY
Harbor. Given the uncertainty at the other waters, a Gale Watch
was kept for now. Highest confidence in 50 kt winds is over the
ocean waters. These strong winds will increase seas over the
ocean zones to just under 20 ft and 7 to 9 ft on the LI Sound.

Winds and seas continue diminishing Tuesday into Wednesday as low
pressure exits the region, and sub advisory conditions are expected
to return to all waters by Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected Saturday night
through Monday night. While minor nuisance/poor drainage
flooding is possible, no significant impacts are expected with
this being a long duration rainfall and the recent dry
conditions.

No additional hydrological concerns are expected mid to late next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding for this aft high tides for
the Nassau County south shore bays and S Fairfield. Impacts
should be minimal.

There is a high likelihood for widespread moderate coastal
flooding, with potential for localized major flooding, for the
Sunday aft and moreso Sunday Night high tide cycles along the
western Great South Bay as ENE-NE winds ramp up to marginal
storm force Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. Confidence is
also high in areas of moderate coastal flooding along N and E
facing coastlines along Western LI Sound with combination of
water levels reaching marginal moderate flood levels, along with
3-6ft breaking wave action. Watches have been upgraded to
warnings for these areas.

Elsewhere for NY/NJ harbor, tidally affected rivers including
Hudson and Hackensack river, and along E LI coastal CT, a
widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flood threat
exists, which will continue to be refined today. Coastal flood
watches remain for this area.

Similar coastal flood threat may continue into the Monday
aft/eve high tidal cycle, but there remains uncertainty on how
quickly wind backs from NE to N, and also how quickly winds
subside based on ultimate track and intensity of low pressure. A
blend of 75th percentile Stevens, and deterministic STOFS and
ETSS was used for this forecast, which does indicate a similar
threat to the Sunday night high tide cycle.

Along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
Sunday thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the
twin forks of LI will also likely see minor to moderate dune
erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NYZ072-074-075-079-081-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ080-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...