093
FXUS61 KOKX 121721
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from Canadian Maritimes into
tonight. On Sunday, the high shifts farther away with a warm
front slowly moving through the local area. An associated cold
front moves in Monday into Monday night. The frontal boundary
remains in the vicinity Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A
cold front may approach the area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low level winds stay from east to southeast today, higher along
the coast and less inland. This will be occurring as high
pressure builds southwest from Nova Scotia. The setup here will
allow for relatively more low level convergence across the
interior areas.

FLow clouds were slowly dissipating and replaced with a cumulus
field with daytime heating. Periods of sun and clouds are
expected through the afternoon, with a seasonably warm day.
Utilized the NBM along with the MAV MOS to give warmer
temperatures than including the MET MOS guidance. Warmest
locations are within northeast NJ and Lower Hudson Valley and
thereby where the most low level instability will be. CAMs are
not depicting much convection within the local region and seem
to be much less than the NBM POPs would suggest. Did manually
lower from NBM POPs regarding the convection. The interior
locations are where the chances for showers and thunderstorms
are, highest between 2PM and 8PM EDT. Coastal areas not expected
to see showers or thunderstorms.

Max temperature forecast mainly within the 80s with relatively
cooler values along much of the immediate shoreline. Within the
area of Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, interior SW CT as well as
NYC, highs today are within the upper 80s. These same locations
will see max heat index values of several degrees higher than
the actual temperature with the very humid airmass. These max
heat indices are mostly in the lower 90s, below heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For tonight into Sunday, the flow regime across the area does
not change much at all. Still looking at overall east to
southeast winds. The pressure tendency does turn more negative
Sunday afternoon into Monday.

For tonight, with the lack of upper level forcing, the decrease of
diurnal instability should allow for any convection to diminish in
coverage. Expecting mainly dry conditions tonight.

Minimum temperatures also from MAV and NBM, limited with their
downward potential due to anticipated increase in cloud coverage. In
addition, patches of fog could develop once again for parts of the
region outside of NYC.

Once again, expecting the clouds to decrease as the day progresses
Sunday with any residual patchy fog burning off in the morning.
Forecast has another chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this
time farther away from the coast and not starting until after 2PM.

Weather overall looks to become more unsettled thereafter going into
Sunday night and Monday. Forecast has a higher chance for showers
(becoming likely) on Monday and Monday night. Thunderstorm potential
limited to chance.

The increased probability of showers comes as a result of an overall
trend from ridging to more troughing aloft. Likewise, models
indicate the presence of more instability, a sign also of cooling
aloft to help generate that extra CAPE. At the surface, a warm
front moves across Sunday into Sunday night and then a cold
front approaches Monday.

Airmass itself does not significantly change during the short
term but dewpoints trend a little higher Monday so more lower
90s for the max heat index forecast in the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be unstable for much of the week with a hot airmass in
place. Despite a frontal boundary in the vicinity Tuesday, some
ridging ahead of the next system could limit convection into
Wednesday morning. The approach of an upper level trough could
along with the weak forcing from the frontal boundary could
allow for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A
cold front approaching from the NW could help trigger more
extensive coverage Thu into the first half of next weekend.

Temps are expected to be above normal Tue-Fri, with highs in
many spots int the lower to middle 90s away from the coast. Thu
is modeled to be the hottest at this time with apparent temps
around 100 for NE NJ and the interior.

The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place offshore through tonight.

MVFR to IFR cigs continue late this morning, with gradual
improvement expected into early afternoon for most. MVFR likely
persists at KGON thru the day, and could linger later than
advertised at a few other terminals. The lower cigs return this
evening, with IFR conditions tonight and into Sunday AM. Fog
possible as well. A late afternoon or early evening shower or
thunderstorm remains possible at KSWF, with everyone else
remaining dry.

Winds generally SE under 10 kt today, becoming light and
variable for outlying areas tonight, and possibly for all
terminals. Similar SE flow and speed is expected on Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing improvement to VFR into early
this afternoon.

Lower confidence in how low conditions get overnight, sub IFR
possible at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR, improving to VFR Sunday afternoon.

Monday: MVFR or lower in the afternoon and early evening with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The absence of a steep pressure gradient will keep conditions on
all waters within the region below small craft advisory
criteria through Monday night.

With a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves are expected to
remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns tonight through Sunday. Possible minor
flooding on Monday and Monday night with more heavy rain
potential. Marginal risk for flash flooding for much of the
but thinking this will be quite localized. PWATs are reaching a
little over 2 inches Monday, with higher dewpoints and more
humid airmass. This will allow for greater potential of heavy
rainfall.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
tstms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for the development of rip currents has been elevated
to high at all the ocean beaches through this evening with
report of strong rip currents. For the ocean seas for Sunday the
risk remains at moderate, with onshore flow near 10 kt and a
3-4 ft swell from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec, and an added
long period onshore swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$