269
FXUS61 KOKX 220554
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe and flash flood threat has ended this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash flood and severe weather threat has ended for the
night, but there could be a few thunderstorms overnight with
brief downpours and gusty winds.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches
through Thursday (see below marine section).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and
intensity across the area. Thus, both the tornado and flood
watched have ended. However, weak instability and continued
lift from the upper trough and jet will still produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Brief heavy
downpour and gusty winds are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes through this afternoon into early evening.

VFR-MVFR conditions are likely through the morning push. Can`t rule
out IFR east of the city terminals during this period. From late
morning onward, VFR, but a chance of TSTMS and MVFR this afternoon.

SW winds 10-15kt with gust around 20kt. Winds veer west late this
afternoon, then NW this evening as they diminish and lose gusts.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR could prevail through much of the morning push. Occasional
gusts 16-20kt possible during the morning push as well.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly gusts 25-30kt expected across ocean waters, LIS, and
southern and eastern bays of LI until Wednesday morning.

SCA seas will likely continue thru Wed night, mainly in
southerly swells of 5-7ft.


Rip Currents:
A high rip current risk is expected through Thursday. Some
areas could come close to high surf criteria, mainly tonight
into Wednesday. A high surf advisory could eventually be needed,
however by the time the swell height and period increase, the
swell direction becomes less orthogonal to the coastline,
limiting the threat high surf conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC