133
FXUS61 KOKX 070533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front pushes offshore tonight. Meanwhile, a cut off
low over the eastern Great Lakes tracks northeast into northern
New England by Wednesday night. A cold front will approach from
the northwest on Thursday and stall nearby Thursday night as
low pressure develops along it over the Mid Atlantic region. Low
pressure will track over or just southeast of the region Friday
into Friday Night, before heading up the New England coast on
Saturday. A weak cold front will cross Saturday night, with high
pressure building in for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Minor adjustments made with this update, mainly to PoPs. Closed
upper low tracks northeast across western NY tonight, with a
spoke of vorticity approaching early Wed AM. At the surface, a
weak cold front/trough pivots NE through the region over the
next few hours. Patchy dense fog still possible over eastern
Long Island for the next few hours as 60F Tds move over 50
degree waters.

Potential for additional scattered shower activity to work in
western portions of the region towards daybreak with next
approaching shortwave and trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The surface trough continues to track east over eastern areas, so
lingering showers are expected for the Twin Forks of Long Island and
southeast CT Wednesday morning, ending by mid morning. Then, another
surface trough looks to move through western areas,weakening as it
moves east during the afternoon, so just a slight chance is expected
for much of Long Island and southeast CT for Wednesday, while
northeast NJ, NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley see a chance for
showers. With much of the dynamics north of the area, now thunder is
expected from late tonight through Wednesday.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday night as the stacked low
heads into the Canadian Maritimes.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm through the period,
with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s on Wednesday and lows
in the 50s for the entire forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Good general model agreement in a northern stream trough digging
from southern Ontario/Quebec Thu/Fri, with another closed low
developing at its based to the W/SW of the region Thu Night/Friday,
and then pivoting ne through the area on Saturday.

At the surface, after brief drying conds Wed Night into Thu AM, the
next cold front approaches the region Thu aft/eve. Scattered
shra/isolated tsra activity possible N&W of NYC Thu aft/eve in a
weakly unstable/sheared environment.

Main focus though is on sfc cyclogenesis over the Mid Atlantic
coastal plain along the cold front Thu Night into Friday AM as the
digging northern stream trough phases with southern jet and closes
off at its base across the Central Appalachians. The trend of the
last 24 hrs has been a bit earlier closed low developing and moreso
to the west versus SW of the region, which is resulting in low
pressure developing closer/over the coast. Trend has also been for a
more progressive closed low/surface low, with improving conditions
for Saturday.

Approaching closed upper low and resultant strengthening coastal low
pressure will bring increasing likelihood of overrunning rain Thu
Night into Fri AM from the Mid Atlantic up the NE US coast in
response to deep layered lift (strong PVA and divergence aloft, and
deep moisture convergence of Gulf/sub-tropical moisture feed over
the region) as low pressure tracks up the coast. Exact location of
cold front and track/intensification of low pressure will determine
location, axis and duration of heavy stratiform rainfall, but
ingredients are there for a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
late Thu Night through Friday. Orographic enhancement looks evident
across the interior based on low-level easterly flow as well.
GEFS/ECE ensemble indicating moderate potential (30-60% prob) for 1"
rainfall in 24 hrs, with slight potential (less than 20% prob) of 2"
in 24 hrs.

Improving conditions Fri night into Saturday AM in wake of low
pressure and closed low, with forecast trending to dry and
seasonably mild conditions.

Subsequent shortwave likely crosses the NE US Sat night with
associated weak cold frontal passage, with dry and seasonably mild
conditions to follow for early next week with Canadian high pressure
building into its wake and gradually rising heights.

Temps near to slightly above seasonable for Thu ahead of weak cold
front, falling to a few to several degrees below seasonable Fri with
low pressure affecting the area, then a gradual moderating process
from near seasonable for Sat to a few to several degrees above
seasonable into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will be in the vicinity of the area
terminals today.

Conditions will continue to improve to VFR with the exception
of KGON, where improvement holds off until around daybreak.
A low chance of a shower today, but not enough impact to
include in TAFs.

SW winds 10kt or less today. Late day afternoon sea breeze
shift to S for KJFK probable. Winds tonight eventually shift to
the W then NW late.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Vsby reductions to 3-5sm in BR possible at KJFK and KTEB
overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers, mainly at night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. A slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in slight chance
of showers.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean has been canceled as waves prevail below 5 ft
for the rest of the night. Dense Fog advisory remains posted
until 06z for the eastern waters.

Sub SCA conditions likely on Thu under a weak pressure gradient.

Next potential for SCA conditions is Friday into Friday Night,
particularly on the ocean waters, with coastal low pressure. The
potential for gales on the ocean has decreased over the last 24
hrs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is likelihood of a widespread moderate to heavy stratiform
rain event for late Thursday night and Friday time period. There
is moderate potential for a 1"+ rainfall, but at this point, flood
impacts look to be minor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...JP/NV
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV