877
FXUS61 KOKX 051128
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
728 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight slowly drifts east, but
remains in control through the weekend. A cold front approaches
from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across the area
Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into midweek. A more
robust frontal system may approach the area by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure remains near the region with an upper level
ridge axis approaches from the west today. It will be another
comfortable day with highs in the 80s and dew points remaining in
the 50s and lower 60s. The urban corridor of NE NJ will likely see
temperatures in the upper 80s. It will be partly to mostly sunny
day, with mainly just some high clouds. Stuck fairly close to the
previous forecast/NBM.

The dry weather continues tonight with lows falling into the upper
60s and 70s. Can not rule out some patchy fog in some spots
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm conditions continue into Sunday. Expect highs in the
low-mid 90s in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly upper
80s to around 90 away from the immediate coast. Also, dew points
will be a little higher on Sunday.  The combination of higher
temperatures and dew points will result in heat index values in the
low to mid 90s for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat index
values are expected to remain just below 95 degree mark. Will need
to continue to monitor Sundays heat indices to see if there is
any upward trend. An upward trend may result in the need for
heat advisories for the Sunday-Monday period.

Sunday night, the SW flow will continue across the area. This would
be at least the 2nd consecutive night of onshore flow. Both the new
00z GFS and NAM soundings are showing the potential for fog and/or
stratus across portions of the forecast area, especially along the
coast. NBM has not really caught onto this yet, so did bump up sky
cover and added at least patchy fog to the forecast. Lows Sunday
night only fall into the lower and middle 70s for lows.

Another warm and humid day is expected on Monday, with heat
indices reaching the middle and upper 90s for a good part of
the area. However, Monday is expected to be mostly cloudy, which
may result in temperatures being a few degrees cooler than
forecast. Either way, it should still be warm and muggy. A cold
front over the Great Lakes Monday morning slowly approaches the
region with a chance of showers and thunderstorms possible
Monday afternoon. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Monday night with the front still expected to
be west of NYC Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global models
were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was followed.

A cold front will eventually move through the area and stall in the
vicinity Tuesday. On Tuesday, heights aloft will lower but flow
should remain fairly zonal with a subtle trough to the west.
Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through much of the
middle of the week.

High pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a general S/SW
flow which likely brings subtropical moisture up the East Coast. The
combination of several mid-level disturbances moving through, a
stalled surface boundary in the vicinity, and a moist S/SW flow will
allow for much of the extended portion of the forecast to have a
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

By the end of the week, more robust energy in the flow approaches
from the west and allows the trough to dig into the Northeast. This
will provide for a better opportunity for showers and storms as well
as a slight decreases in temperatures.

Despite chances for showers each day, high temperatures should
remain in the low to middle 80s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the area pushes offshore tonight remaining in
control through tomorrow.

VFR.

S/SSW winds will develop this morning, increasing to around
10 kt with gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Winds decrease in
the evening, then go light and variable at outlying terminals in
the overnight. We repeat the pattern tomorrow with S/SSW winds
increasing in the morning to 5-10 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Light and variable winds continue for Sat AM push.

S 15 G20 kt winds possible for KJFK for aft/early eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts around 20 kt Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Night-Monday Morning: IFR possible in patchy fog and low
stratus.

Monday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR by midday Monday through Wednesday.
Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Monday
night. Seas to build to near advisory levels on the ocean with
seas climbing to around 4 ft Sunday late afternoon/evening and
continuing into Sunday night.

Generally weak flow will result in sub-SCA conditions on all waters
Tuesday through at least Thursday..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological concerns are expected through the
beginning of next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the
area Tuesday into Wednesday which may allow for an environment
with the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this
timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk for all beaches will be moderate today given the
southerly flow, 3ft surf heights and wind wave period of 7-8
seconds. Conditions are similar for Sunday, with a moderate risk
for all, with perhaps an increase in the southeast swell, but
less periodicity overall.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...