383
FXUS61 KOKX 210841
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
441 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin passes well offshore today into tonight. High
pressure builds in thereafter for the end of the week into at
least the start of the weekend. A frontal system moves through
at the beginning of next week. High pressure gradually builds in
thereafter. Please refer to NHC forecasts for further
information on Hurricane Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points

* As Hurricane Erin passes well offshore, it will bring indirect,
  but significant impacts to the shoreline. See TIDES/COASTAL
  FLOODING section below.

An upper level trough is currently moving through as Hurricane Erin
moves up the east coast. Shower coverage and intensity gradually
decreases this morning with dry conditions expected by the afternoon
the latest with increasing subsidence. Winds continue to increase
today and likely peak late morning into the evening. Some isolated
gusts along the Long Island coast could reach 40 mph, otherwise
gusts will top out around 25 to 30 mph for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points

* Shoreline impacts continue in the short term. See TIDES/COASTAL
  FLOODING section below.

The pressure gradient weakens quickly on Friday as Hurricane Erin
moves farther east and high pressure builds in. Aloft, the flow
becomes mostly zonal, with heights starting to lower a tad
Saturday night as an upper level low moves through eastern
Canada. Dry and sunny conditions are expected Friday and
Saturday with highs back in the 80s. An approaching frontal
system may bring showers to extreme western portions of the area
as early as late Saturday night. Followed the NBM during this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An approaching upr trop brings swly flow aloft on Sun, then the trof
slows over the region thru the beginning of next week. This should
keep temps on the cooler side of normal, and produce chances for
shwrs and perhaps isold tstms at times. The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal system moves east of the region early this morning.
High pressure builds to the northwest today into tonight as
Hurricane Erin passes well to the southeast of the area. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for further information
on Hurricane Erin.

Ceilings remain borderline between MVFR and IFR into early
morning with scattered light showers, possibly drizzle.
Widespread MVFR develops early this morning and continues into
early afternoon, then becoming VFR.

NE flow near 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt increases early this
morning to around 20 kt with gusts around 25 kt, with winds
slowly backing to NNE. Gusts up to 30 kt possible late morning
into the afternoon, highest at the coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improving flight categories may be off by a couple of
hours.

Gusts during the day may briefly be 30 to 34 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday Night: VFR. N gusts around 20 kt, ending toward Friday
morning, except across the far eastern terminals.

Friday: VFR. For KGON NE-N winds 15G20-25kt early in the morning.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marine hazards remain unchanged from the previous forecast. A Gale
Warning remains in effect across the ocean waters, with a Small
Craft Advisory in effect elsewhere.

Winds and swell continue to increase today. Winds peak late this
morning through the evening with 35 to 40 kt gusts on the ocean
waters and 25 to 30 kt gusts expected elsewhere. Seas peak this
evening into early Friday with a significant wave height of 14 to 18
feet and occasional waves 20+ feet. This will be a combination
of a long period southerly swell up to 17s and an easterly wind
wave with a period of around 8s. Additionally, 5 to 9 ft waves
could make it into the far eastern Long Island Sound and 5 to 6
ft waves could make it near the immediate entrance to the NY
Harbor.

Winds decrease pretty quick on Friday, but the ocean will likely
need a Small Craft Advisory through Saturday or Saturday night for
lingering 5ft seas. Conditions then remain below Small Craft
Advisory thereafter into mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Shoreline hazards remain unchanged from the previous forecast. A
High Surf Advisory and High Risk for Rip Currents are in effect for all
Atlantic Ocean Beaches through Friday as swell from Hurricane Erin
in bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents.

With large and long period waves from Hurricane Erin approaching the
beach nearly head on, surf heights during the day today will likely
reach 9 to 13 feet for Brooklyn and southern Queens and 12 to 16 for
southern Nassau and southern Suffolk. Surf heights likely peak
overnight tonight and could be a foot or two higher than earlier in
the day. Surf remains elevated Friday morning but by the afternoon
should drop to 5-9 for western beaches and 8-12 for eastern beaches.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides
through tonight. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely with
localized overwashes during this evening and Friday morning high
tides. This high surf will be combined with elevated water levels as
we approach a new moon.

Widespread moderate coastal flooding is expected for southern
Queens, southern Nassau, and southwestern suffolk counties. For
eastern Long Island, moderate flooding will likely be more
localized, with north facing exposed shoreline areas along the
southern and eastern bays being the most susceptible due to to
enhanced wave action. This includes Orient Point.

Elsewhere, minor coastal flooding is expected with this evening`s
high tide cycle for southern Brooklyn, the NY Harbor, and much of
the CT & NY coastlines along the Long Island Sound. Coastal Flood
Advisories have been issued in these areas.

Additional rounds of minor flooding are expected with Friday morning
and Friday evening`s high tide cycles. Advisories are in place for
the areas at highest risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for CTZ009>011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for NYZ079-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ080-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...