382
FXUS64 KOHX 172340
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- Heat Advisory much of the area through Tuesday with highs in
  the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the triple digits west
  of the Cumberland Plateau. Cooler air will move in for late
  week.

- Low rain chances through Tuesday, then chances for scattered
  showers and storms increase Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The heat wave will continue with the peak of the dangerous
conditions this afternoon through Tuesday. We have been fortunate
to have enough mixing the past couple of days to lower dew points
slightly and keep heat index values from getting much above 105.
This pattern will continue the next couple of days, but with temps
potentially climbing around 100 in some areas and the risk of
heat illnesses building over time, we decided to go ahead and
issue a Heat Advisory generally along and west of I-65 through
Tuesday.

A possible "spoiler" for some areas this afternoon will be a small
potential for thunderstorms. We are looking north to storms along
the Ohio River that could move down here, or at least send an
outflow boundary later this afternoon. CAMs are all over the
place with this, but several ensemble members have been
consistently showing scattered cell development, especially for
our northeast counties. We do not expect much coverage, but any
storms that form could produce heavy downpours and a lot of
lightning, along with localized 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. We will
just have to watch radar trends and respond accordingly.

For Monday and Tuesday, the big upper ridge centered over the
plains will shift west to the Four Corners, but a strong ridge
axis will extend eastward all the way to the Mid Atlantic Coast.
This will keep us cooking with overall low chances for rain.
Record highs the next couple of days are 102 at BNA. We are not
forecasting records, but it is reasonably possible BNA could
touch 100 for the first time this summer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

By Wednesday, the big ridge center will be firmly established out
over the Four Corners and our ridge axis will be collapsing. Weak
north flow will allow a "cooler" front to come down from the
north with some relief from the heat along with chances for
scattered showers and storms. The frontal zone will be very
diffuse and will not be a strong focus for deep convection, so
pops Wednesday through Friday will be in the low to medium range
(20 to 40 percent). No organized severe wx is expected, but a few
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will not be
surprising.

The weekend ahead shows normal temperatures and tolerable,
downward trending humidity levels. There will be small chances for
afternoon thunderstorms. Some extended models suggest a
reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air pushing in next weekend. It
is too soon to bank on it, but at least we have hope for a brief flip
to cooler than normal air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR wind forecast for BNA, MQY, and CKV. Winds calm overnight with
clear skies, then favor NE to ENE tomorrow afternoon at 5-8 kts.
As usual, watching for patchy fog near SRB and CSV tonight which
could bring IFR vis, though should fade off by ~13z. Rain/storm
chances aren`t high enough for TAF inclusion tomorrow afternoon
(10% or less). It`ll be hot for sure, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    74  97  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
Crossville     68  89  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       73  97  72  99 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     70  91  69  93 /  10   0  10  10
Jamestown      68  89  67  92 /  10   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   72  96  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   72  97  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        74  97  73  99 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore