869
FXUS64 KOHX 111112
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- 50-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday, with light accumulations and no severe anticipated.
- More showers and thunderstorms possible Friday into Saturday,
  with the potential for severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and
  breezy winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

For the short term, we`re largely going to be on the calmer side.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the "calm before the storm" so to
speak, with clear skies and high temperatures in the 70s. Wednesday
night, a shortwave similar to the one we just had will move through
the area. The larger accumulations of QPF look to be to our south
and east, with less than 0.25" expected across middle Tennessee.
Moisture returns are not great in guidance with this system, but
locally higher amounts would be possible in thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Multiple chances for active weather are upcoming this week into the
weekend.

First chance is on Friday night as rapid cyclogenesis occurs on the
lee side of the Rocky mountains, and the trough takes on a negative
tilt approaching the mid south. Showers and thunderstorms are likely
to occur, with the potential for severe being a little uncertain.
Started to see the guidance come into agreement a bit more, but many
factors still remain a mystery. Moisture doesn`t appear to be as big
of an issue like with previous systems, as southerly winds off the
Gulf will be able to advect enough instability and moisture into the
area, but some of the timing discrepancies in guidance has me
concerned. If the faster solution pans out, there likely won`t be
enough moisture in the area for severe thunderstorms. On the flip
side, the slower solution would increase my confidence in them
occurring. Confidence is lower right now, but hopefully some of the
details will get ironed out in the days to come and we will have a
clearer picture. As it stands now, all severe modes appear to be
possible.

The second system will immediately follow the first, and the main
concern with this one if heavy rain in middle Tennessee on Saturday
and Sunday. Guidance has this disturbance interacting with a stalled
front, which raises red flags for possible flooding concerns.
Especially if rain totals from the first system increase. Current
probabilities for over an inch of accumulation are 30 - 50% across
middle Tennessee currently. There is also a concern with this system
for severe weather, but too much remains uncertain to say anything
right now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Southwest winds
this afternoon will occasionally be gusty at around 15 to 20
knots. Winds will become light again after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  50  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    76  50  77  54 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     69  45  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       76  48  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     71  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      70  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   74  47  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   75  46  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        75  49  75  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements