302
FXUS64 KOHX 140042
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
742 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 741 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Low to medium (20-40%) storm chances on Thursday. No severe
  weather is expected, but heavy rain could lead to localized
  flooding.

- Heat returns Friday into this weekend, with high temperatures in
  the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will get into the low triple
  digits west of the Cumberland Plateau, but are expected to stay
  below advisory criteria.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

We still have a few showers around at update time, mainly along
and west of I-65. These should continue to dwindle over the next
few hours, then the focus will become fog. Right now, there`s
quite a bit of cloud cover over Middle TN, so confidence on how
widespread any dense fog will be is low, but expectation is for at
least widespread reductions in visibility to begin before
midnight due to this afternoon`s rains.

Flood Watch has expired.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Well, this morning`s activity certainly helped with the flash
drought situation we have in middle Tennessee. Several places
reported multiple inches of rain, but nearly everyone got at least
some drops. More convection is beginning to pop up this afternoon on
radar. Today does look to be the rainiest day of the week, with a
very moist air mass above us. PWATs remain around 2 inches
currently, and based on what we saw the moisture can do this
morning, there is a flood watch in effect for portions of middle
Tennessee. The potential for localized flooding is a bit higher with
any convection we get into tonight with the amount of rain we saw
this morning. However, no severe weather is expected with any of the
activity today and tonight.

High pressure will begin to build into the region for the remainder
of the work week, leading to less rain chances and more heat into
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Into the weekend, a high pressure system will begin to take hold of
the area, driving up our temperatures into the start of the work
week next week. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s by
Monday, with heat indices in the low triple digits. At this time,
heat advisories are not expected with heat indices staying below 105
degrees. No matter if we have a product out or not, it will be hot
this weekend. If you have plans to spend time outdoors this weekend
make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks in the shade or
the AC frequently if working outdoors. We will continue to monitor
the situation and possible need for heat products as we get closer
to the weekend. Rain chances start to climb again into early next
week, with isolated chances for showers beginning on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions at issuance, however due to this afternoon`s rains,
high chance of IFR to LIFR cigs and vis, especially at CSV and
SRB after 05Z. IFR to MVFR at MQY and CKV after 05Z. VFR
conditions should return by mid-morning Thursday. TS probs
Thursday afternoon are too low to include attm, but may need to
add in future TAFs. Winds Will be light (less than 10 kts and
mainly southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  92  74  94 /  30  40  10  10
Clarksville    72  92  72  94 /  30  30  10  10
Crossville     68  84  67  87 /  30  50  10  20
Columbia       72  91  71  94 /  50  40  10  20
Cookeville     69  86  70  89 /  30  40  10  20
Jamestown      68  84  67  88 /  40  40  10  20
Lawrenceburg   70  89  70  92 /  50  50  10  20
Murfreesboro   72  91  72  94 /  40  40  10  20
Waverly        70  92  71  94 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger