809
FXUS64 KOHX 281726
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Unsettled weather through early next week with afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms. Severe weather risk remains very low.

- Temperatures near or slightly above-normal through the forecast
  period. Humidity levels decrease on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

We`re finally getting a break from the worst of the heat as the
upper-level high that had been dominating our weather pattern all
week has shifted out of our area. But with plenty of moisture and
instability still in play, scattered thunderstorms will be the
main talking point over the next several days. A few storms have
already started to develop across Middle TN late this morning, and
do expect for coverage to increase through the afternoon hours.
CAMs highlight areas near and west of I-65 as having the greatest
coverage for storms this afternoon which makes since given this is
where the greatest instability and moisture parameters are. With
little to no shear, the threat for severe weather remains very
low. But the typical summertime thunderstorm hazards of frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain are all possible with any
stronger thunderstorm. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish after
sunset. There`s a low chance for patchy fog overnight with plenty
of low-level moisture and calm winds.

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with another round of
scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather threat remains very low.
Otherwise, while there is this relative break in the heat with
high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90, it`ll still be very
humid thanks to dewpoints in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

An unsettled weather pattern persists through at least Tuesday
thanks to plentiful instability and moisture combined with a
trough tracking through the Midwest. High rain chances are in the
forecast Monday, but these high rain chances get more focused
across southern and eastern Middle TN Tuesday as a weak front
progresses through the area. Behind this front and system, ridging
develops over the central US again. We won`t be completely rain-
free Wednesday onward, but coverage should be more isolated. And
these relatively cooler temperatures will warm up again late week
and into next weekend with highs returning to the mid-90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Radar trends show showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
CKV, BNA, and MQY this afternoon, then taper off later this
evening after 02Z. Will have to watch trends at CSV and SRB, and
amend as needed. After sunset, winds will be light and variable
and some fog development could be possible should winds go calm as
expected at CSV and SRB, with borderline LIFR VIS restriction
between 9Z and 13Z. More convection is anticipated tomorrow with
best timing occurring around 18Z and later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  73  90  74 /  50  30  70  20
Clarksville    90  73  87  73 /  50  30  70  20
Crossville     85  66  85  67 /  50  20  70  20
Columbia       89  70  88  71 /  50  20  70  20
Cookeville     85  68  87  70 /  50  20  70  20
Jamestown      86  67  86  68 /  50  20  70  20
Lawrenceburg   89  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
Murfreesboro   90  70  89  72 /  50  20  70  20
Waverly        90  70  86  71 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....05