330
FXUS64 KOHX 100534
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week. Heat
  Advisories may be issued west of the Plateau, especially Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

- Low to medium (10 to 40 percent) chance of showers and storms
  each afternoon and early evening (highest chances along the
  Cumberland Plateau). Heavy downpours with local flash flooding
  will be the main concern. Gusty winds can`t be ruled out, but
  the threat of severe winds is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Sunday turned out to be our quietest day of weather in the last
week. A few spots saw some thunderstorms, but after the flooding we
saw Saturday in Williamson County, I`ll take the lack of activity
anytime. This also provided our soils an opportunity to recover
after the widespread storms on Saturday. Some patchy fog will be
possible after midnight, but shouldn`t be widespread at all.

We`ve been talking about this quite a bit the last few days and it
does look like we`re going to start seeing more upper level ridging
begin to influence our weather in Middle TN on Monday. The Bermuda
Ridge has started to retrograde to the west and while a couple of
storms can`t be ruled out, I think the bigger issue will start to
become the heat. Now, while tomorrow should be a couple of degrees
warmer than we saw today, I don`t think it`s going to be our warmest
and most humid day of the week. This looks like it`s going to be
Tuesday and maybe even again on Wednesday. A couple of spots may
reach Heat Index values of 105 tomorrow, but by far, feels-like
temps of 105 to 107 degrees will be much more widespread on
minimally on Tuesday, but even Wednesday. For this reason, I`ll hold
off on the heat headline for tomorrow and focus on the middle of the
week for Heat Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As we reach Thursday, there are still some inconsistencies between
models. However, it does seem as though stronger ridging may end up
winning out over the mid-state and the latest NBM is definitely
picking up on this. What was upper 80s to about 90 for the second
half of the week has now become mid 90s for areas west of the
Cumberland Plateau right into next weekend. NBM MaxT probs each
afternoon starting Thursday through next weekend of seeing 95+
degrees stands at 70-80% for many west of the Plateau. Only 48 hours
ago, it was only 30-40%. Big change. Dew points will be the big
challenge, but even at these environmental temps, we may only be in
advisory territory. Again, I don`t think we rule out a stray storm
for the second half of the week, but if temps are going to get
this warm because of a strengthening ridge, convection should be
at a minimum each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

MVFR fog is possible for CSV and SRB near sunrise this morning,
but all other TAF sites should remain VFR with light southwesterly
winds through the period. There`s a low to medium chance of
showers and storms along the Plateau this afternoon and evening,
but chances are lower than they have been over the past few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  76  95  77 /  10   0  20  10
Clarksville    95  75  95  77 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     87  70  88  70 /  10  10  30  10
Columbia       94  74  95  74 /  10   0  30  10
Cookeville     89  72  89  72 /  10   0  40  20
Jamestown      88  71  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
Lawrenceburg   91  73  92  73 /  20   0  40  10
Murfreesboro   94  74  95  74 /  20   0  40  10
Waverly        93  74  94  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cahill