770
FXUS64 KOHX 222319
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
619 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

- Cooler and drier weather will persist through Friday.

- Rain and storm chances will return Saturday and into next week.
  The severe weather risk is low.

- Temperatures will stay at or below seasonal normals until late
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Middle Tennessee is enjoying abundant sunshine today as high
pressure builds in from the northern Great Plains. Mostly sunny
skies and mild temperatures will last through tomorrow before our
next rain chances arrive just in time for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Rain and storm chances will return to the forecast Friday night
and Saturday as a warm front develops to our south and a swath of
moisture rides down the northwest flow aloft. This will set in
motion a days-long stretch of active weather during which a series
of shortwaves will bring medium to high rain chances to Middle
Tennessee. At this time, the NBM suggests that Sunday and Monday
will be our two raniest days. (The 07Z solution gives a 44%
probability of measuring 1" or more of rain at BNA Sunday and
Sunday night, and a 51% probability Monday and Monday night.) It
appears that rain chances will drop off considerably after
Tuesday, with temperatures slowly warming up to seasonal normals
later in the week. At this time, the risk of severe storms through
day 8 is very low for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mid level clouds passing
through the region. Breezy northerly winds diminish to under 8
knots in the next hour or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  75  55  74 /   0   0  40  50
Clarksville    51  72  54  71 /   0   0  40  50
Crossville     47  67  47  69 /  10   0  20  40
Columbia       54  75  54  71 /  10   0  50  60
Cookeville     49  69  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Jamestown      46  67  45  70 /   0   0  20  30
Lawrenceburg   53  74  53  71 /  10   0  50  60
Murfreesboro   53  75  52  72 /   0   0  30  50
Waverly        51  73  54  69 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller