628
FXUS64 KOHX 051729
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather is in
  place through Thursday evening for the western half of Middle
  Tennessee. Main hazard is damaging straight-line winds.

- A slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather is in place
  for all of Middle Tennessee Friday and Saturday. Main hazards
  are damaging straight-line winds, hail, and heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week with daily
  thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A stationary boundary continues to hang around to the northwest of
Middle TN, and ahead of this boundary, showers and thunderstorms
have developed and are slowly advancing southeast. CAMs do show
this activity weakening as it crosses the TN River, but this will
have to be monitored carefully. But with abundant moisture owing
to dewpoints reaching into the upper-60s to low-70s, CAMs do show
isolated to widely scattered activity developing this afternoon
with coverage tapering off after sunset. While there`s abundant
instability and moisture, shear remains very weak and mid-level
lapse rates remain are poor. But low-level lapse rates are still
decent so the main hazard with any afternoon and evening storms
would be strong to damaging winds. The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook
does highlight roughly the western half of Middle TN in a marginal
risk for this low chance of severe winds.

By Friday, moisture continues to stream into the area, leading to
dewpoints rising into the low-70s which in turn pushes CAPE values
to near 2,000 J/kg. Also Friday morning, a MCS will be ongoing over
OK and will be advancing east through the day. The general model
consensus is to bring this MCS into Middle TN during the afternoon.
Shear values do improve on Friday with bulk shear around 25-35
knots, and mid-level lapse rates also steepen to around 6.5-7
C/km. Forecast soundings continue to suggest damaging straight-
line winds as the main threat, especially with the MCS. However,
with steeper lapse rates, there is a low hail threat, especially
with any discrete cells that are able to form ahead of the MCS.
Due to all of this, there remains an areawide slight risk in the
latest SPC Day 2 Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Unsettled is the word as we head into the weekend with low
confidence in timing. A few CAMs, namely the HRRR, are picking up on
the possibility of additional development behind the MCS Friday
night and into Saturday morning. So low confidence in storm coverage
Friday night and into Saturday morning. But by Saturday morning, yet
another MCS will be ongoing over OK with this feature pushing east
through the day. Saturday has the potential to be very similar to
Friday with abundant CAPE, bulk shear staying around 25-35 knots,
and mid-level lapse around 6-6.5 C/km. If the MCS can maintain its
strength as it moves into Middle TN during the afternoon and
evening, then damaging straight-line winds will once again be the
main threat with a low hail threat. Another areawide slight risk is
present for Saturday.

By Sunday, a shortwave passing through will push the stationary
front through Middle TN which pushes the bulk of thunderstorm
activity to our south and east. This unfortunately doesn`t mean
that we`re totally in the clear as far as rain goes, but it does
push our highest rain chances Sunday to areas south of I-40 and
across the Plateau. And then the unsettled weather pattern
continues into next week with a large upper-level trough over the
Great Lakes area helping to keep daily storm chances in the
forecast. Otherwise, look for high temperatures to reach into the
low and mid-80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for
CKV/BNA/MQY. Largely VFR CIGs are expected through the TAF period,
but some short periods of MVFR CIGs, mainly with any showers that
move through this afternoon. After 15z Friday, some scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  87  72  85 /  20  70  70  80
Clarksville    70  85  70  84 /  20  80  60  70
Crossville     65  82  65  79 /  10  70  80  80
Columbia       69  87  70  85 /  10  70  60  80
Cookeville     67  82  67  81 /  10  80  80  80
Jamestown      65  82  65  80 /  20  80  80  80
Lawrenceburg   69  87  69  84 /  10  70  60  80
Murfreesboro   69  87  70  85 /  10  70  70  80
Waverly        68  84  68  82 /  10  80  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Cravens