272
FXUS64 KOHX 231608
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected east of I-65
  through this evening. No severe weather expected.

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for next week with highs
  10-20 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A shortwave is moving over Middle TN today, and observations also
reveal a moisture gradient bisecting the area from northeast to
southwest. Dewpoints on the "drier" side of this gradient are in
the 60s with higher dewpoints in the 70s present across the east.
SPC mesoanalysis also shows a PWAT gradient with PWATs of 1.5" and
higher roughly from Nashville towards the Plateau with lower
PWATs towards the west. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will mainly favor areas east of I-65 through the remainder of the
day thanks to this better moisture. Severe weather is still not
expected, but with PWATs being above average for late August,
heavy rain will be the primary threat for any stronger storms.

Coverage will lessen after sunset and the loss of daytime heating,
but the lingering shortwave will keep a low chance for showers in
the forecast overnight across the Plateau. Otherwise, patchy fog
likely develops overnight, favoring areas that receive rain today.

Meanwhile, our highly anticipated cold front is currently making
its way across the Plains and Midwest today. Models have sped up
its arrival just a little with the front projected to be south of
Middle TN by early to mid-Sunday afternoon. While CAMs still show
very isolated showers tomorrow along the Plateau ahead of this
front, rain chances have decreased to less than 20% with this
forecast. Post-front, much drier and cooler air starts to filter
into the area. Highs tomorrow will reach into the mid and
upper-80s with the real cooldown starting Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

An absolutely beautiful start to the week is still on tap. With a
drier airmass in place, dewpoints will generally be in the
mid-40s to 50s through the week with high temperatures in the
upper-70s to low-80s. Morning lows will be cool as well with
temperatures in the 50s as you likely walk out the door.

As far as rain, those chances will be very low through much of the
week. On Tuesday, a disturbance tracks through the southeast US,
however, models are currently keeping this feature south of
Middle TN. But the pattern potentially becomes unsettled again
late week and into next weekend. For now, this is enough to
warrant low (10-20%) rain chances in the forecast Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

CKV is expected to be VFR for the taf period. There is a medium
chance of showers impacting BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB today and a low chance
of a storm impacting one of the terminals. MVFR cigs at BNA/MQY
will gradually rise this morning allowing for VFR conditions to
return. If a terminal is impacted by a shower or storm, vis could
drop to IFR/MVFR. There is a medium chance of fog developing at
CSV/SRB after 05z. Winds at BNA/MQY/CKV will be variable at times
but generally have a northerly component. Winds at CSV/SRB will
have southerly component today before turning westerly and calming
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  69  89  61 /  40  10   0   0
Clarksville    91  65  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  65  81  54 /  60  50  20   0
Columbia       89  66  90  58 /  40  20   0   0
Cookeville     83  66  84  55 /  50  40  10   0
Jamestown      81  65  82  54 /  60  40  10   0
Lawrenceburg   86  66  88  56 /  50  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  67  89  57 /  50  30   0   0
Waverly        90  65  89  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Reagan