334
FXUS64 KOHX 100519
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- Widespread hard freeze Monday morning and again Monday night
  into Tuesday morning.

- Medium to high chance (40-80%) for light snow accumulation of a
  dusting to half inch across the Plateau Monday afternoon. Low
  probability for exceeding 1 inch at the highest elevations.

- Temperatures rebound to near normal values by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After a series of days in the 60s and 70s, Sunday brought a
dramatic change with daytime temps in the 40s and blustery
northwest winds. Post cold front moisture brought scattered light
rain, sleet, and snow showers late afternoon, and by the evening,
the precipitation had changed to all snow and focused over the
Cumberland Plateau. Numerous "light coating" reports had been
received. By the time accumulating snow tapers off overnight, some
Upper Cumberland spots may have around one half inch, and perhaps
1 inch at the highest elevations. We do not anticipate major
travel issues, but some slick spots on elevated surfaces will be
possible as late night temperatures plummet into the 20s.
Northwest winds will help dry up some of the road surfaces where
precipitation has occurred.

On Monday, the deep trough responsible for the cold blast across
the eastern states will bottom out over Tennessee. This pocket of
very cold air aloft will bring another round of clouds and
scattered precipitation across the area during the afternoon,
again focused mainly over the Plateau with just sprinkles and
flurries elsewhere. The Upper Cumberland has a good shot for a
fresh one half inch of snow with around 1 inch for the highest
elevations from Jamestown to Monterey. Models show a low chance
(about 30 percent) for snow totals building into the 1 to 2 inch
range at the highest elevations. By Monday afternoon, I would not
expect much of Sunday evening`s snow to remain thanks to
compacting and melting from the warm ground, so we would not
really be adding to previous totals. The snow showers could come
down pretty good at times, so driving may be tricky for the Upper
Cumberland Monday afternoon and early evening with some slick
spots and poor visibility.

Otherwise, Monday will be a cold and blustery day area-wide with
temps mostly in the 30s. Northwest winds will gust to 30 mph at
times.

The precipitation and winds will settle down Monday night as
surface high pressure moves directly across the area. Clear skies
and lighter winds will allow most areas to fall to the lower 20s
by daybreak Tuesday, and some areas will dip into the teens.

As quickly as this cold blast arrived, it will move out Tuesday
with temperatures recovering into the 40s and lower 50s. Tuesday
night will not be nearly as frigid with south winds limiting lows
to the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Our early taste of winter will be gone by midweek. Temperatures
will rebound into the 60s Wednesday. Dry northwest flow will keep
conditions dry and calm through at least Friday.

Looking to the weekend, upper level winds will turn southwesterly,
causing temps to warm into the 70s and setting the stage for a
round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday as the next significant
low pressure and frontal system impacts the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

It appears that the first batch of light snow and flurries has
exited Middle Tennessee, although a gusty NW wind will persist
overnight and throughout the day Monday. TAFs are VFR tonight with
the exception of low ceilings at KCSV. Tomorrow, look for
additional light snow to develop during the afternoon mainly along
and near the Cumberland Plateau as an upper low dives
southeastward across northeast Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      26  40  25  52 /  20  10  10   0
Clarksville    26  41  23  52 /  10  10  10   0
Crossville     20  30  18  43 /  60  50  30   0
Columbia       25  39  21  52 /  10  10  10   0
Cookeville     22  33  19  45 /  70  50  20   0
Jamestown      21  31  18  43 /  70  60  30   0
Lawrenceburg   24  38  21  50 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   26  39  21  50 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        24  39  22  50 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for TNZ010-
011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose