835
FXUS64 KOHX 011744
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- A much needed break from the heat with afternoon highs in the
  80s continues through the middle of next week.

- Most of Middle TN will see drier weather through Saturday with
  low rain chances remaining for areas along the Plateau. Higher
  rain chances (50-70%) return Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorm threat is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Today will seem cooler than the past few weeks with highs in the
mid-80s. The cold front that passed through yesterday is giving us a
wonderful break from the recent oppressive heat. Behind this
front, most of the area will remain dry today. However, a PWAT of
1.92" from this morning`s 12Z sounding will still give a low
20-30% chance for a few showers and storms south of I-40 through
sunset. The severe threat is very low, but if a storm develops, it
is possible for a storm to produce heavy rain due to the high
PWATs. Heading into tonight, the ~10 degree dewpoint depression
will make areas harder to fog tonight along with lows in the mid
to upper 60s and a calm northeasterly wind. Cooler temperatures
persist into Saturday. Most of the area still remains dry with
just low rain and storm chances mainly across the Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

An upper level trough situated across the northeast will help keep
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s through the middle of
next week. A shortwave associated with the current upper level
trough will bring in storm chances east of I-65 this weekend with
Sunday having the highest confidence of storms (60-80%). Starting
the work week, another upper level trough moves through Tennessee
influencing the higher storm chances (40-60%). Model soundings
show lapse rates nearing 6 C/km, which isn`t too impressive, but
could result in a few storms producing strong wind gusts. PWs will
decrease nearing close to climatologically normal which will
lessen the heavy rain threat. As this upper level trough leaves,
the cooler temperatures will leave with it. Nearing the end of the
week, high pressure builds back over the central US so highs will
ramp back up into the 90s, but low to medium daily rain chances
will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

There is substantially more cloud cover over the midstate than
days prior, resulting in mixed VFR/MVFR conditions from lower CIGs.
As the afternoon progresses, there is a low chance of a rainshower
or two in the Cumberland Plateau vicinity, but not high enough to
include in the TAF. Later on, clouds should rise and begin to
break up, leading to VFR conditions overnight. There is also a
small chance of patchy fog developing near KSRB & KCSV in the
early morning, but any that develops should clear out right after
the sun rises.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  87  69  84 /  10  10  30  60
Clarksville    64  85  65  84 /   0   0  10  40
Crossville     63  80  64  75 /  10  40  80  80
Columbia       67  86  68  82 /  10  10  30  60
Cookeville     65  83  66  79 /  10  20  70  80
Jamestown      63  79  64  76 /  10  20  70  80
Lawrenceburg   66  85  67  81 /  10  20  40  70
Murfreesboro   67  86  68  82 /  10  10  40  70
Waverly        63  85  64  84 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Roberts/13