113
FXUS64 KOHX 151106
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 503 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy and warm on Saturday with low to medium rain chances
  (10-40%) Saturday night, rain amounts remain very light.

- Active weather pattern next week with temperatures favoring
  above-normal.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few t-storms. No severe weather expected at this
  time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Much of the region remains in a broad northwesterly flow aloft,
but with low-level/surface ridging to our southeast. This is
supporting a southerly breeze across the Tennessee Valley and
relatively warm temperatures. Southerly to southwesterly winds
will increase tomorrow with the approach of a shortwave
disturbance and an associated cold front. With afternoon mixing
we`ll likely see winds gusting to 25-30 mph at times. This strong
southwesterly breeze will also support warm temperatures with
highs well into the 70s west of the Plateau. Clouds may limit
warming somewhat, so the latest forecast high for Nashville is
just under the record of 79. We`ll see.

As the cold front approaches overnight night clouds will continue
to build along with a scattering of light rain showers. Guidance
favors areas east of I-65 for rain showers and only the Plateau
is currently forecast to see very light amounts measured (less
than 0.1"). We`ll transition to cooler conditions on Sunday with
northwesterly winds and highs in the 60s as high pressure moves in
from the upper Mississippi Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Medium-range guidance suggests a brief period of less amplified
flow aloft during the Mon/Tue timeframe. However, we`ll contend
with another shortwave disturbance on Tuesday (remnant vorticity
from the upper-low currently off the California Baja). This upper
forcing looks to be sufficient to support a weak surface low
across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday which continues to provide low
to medium rain chances (<60%) across the area.

A more significant upper-level trough is depicted on medium-range
guidance/ensembles toward the end of the week which will also act
to amplify flow aloft. This will support the development of a
deep-layer ridge across the eastern CONUS with a warm front
passage and warm advection appearing likely on Thursday. With this
in mind, scattered to numerous rain showers remain forecast,
particularly near the warm front which is suggested to be north
of I-40 Thursday. Additional chances for rain and a few t-storms
will come once the upper-level disturbance approaches our area
Thursday night into Friday along with a strengthening low-level
jet. This timeframe carries our highest rain chances at the
moment (40-70%). Due to the forecast range and variability amongst
guidance on the evolution of this system, there`s ongoing
uncertainties about rain amounts and if we`ll see any
strong/severe t-storms. Right now there`s not enough confidence to
advertise any hazardous weather, but we`ll obviously watch
forecast trends over the coming days considering the overall
synoptics could present these opportunities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail with increasing mid-level clouds through
the afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds will strengthen
starting around 15Z-18Z with gusts of 20 to 25 knots through early
evening. Winds will then become northwesterly as a cold front
moves in from the west after 06Z. There is a low chance of light
showers along the Plateau also after 06Z. Included a PROB30 group
at CSV to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  55  66  36 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    76  51  63  33 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     69  52  60  30 /   0  30   0   0
Columbia       77  56  68  36 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     71  54  61  33 /   0  30   0   0
Jamestown      69  51  59  32 /   0  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   76  56  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   77  56  66  35 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        75  51  64  38 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements