709
FXUS64 KOHX 200356
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- High chance for rain (70-90 percent) with scattered
  thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather
  threat is very low.

- Warm next week with daily rounds of scattered showers and
  thunderstorms. Severe weather threat remains very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Mesoanalysis this evening shows a cold front stalled to our north
over central Missouri and Illinois. Taking a look further out
shows an area of high pressure off the SE US coast while a low
pressure system takes shape over the southern Rockies. Overall, a
quiet night is in store for Middle TN. Winds this evening are
calm across the area, and cloud cover will keep lows relatively
warm in the mid-60s. A very similar day to Saturday is in store
for Easter Sunday as the front remains stalled, and the high
pressure off the eastern coast helps keep our own weather dry and
warm. Clouds will stick around through the day, but highs should
warm into the low and mid-80s.

By Sunday night and into Monday, the aforementioned low over the
Rockies will eject towards the northeast, finally pushing a cold
front through Middle TN. This will bring a high chance (70-90%)
for rain and thunderstorms across the area through Monday. Great
news is that the risk for severe weather still looks to be very
low. CAPE values through the day on Monday will rise to around
300-750 J/kg, particularly across the east ahead of the front.
Bulk shear values rise to 30-40 knots which could help support a
stronger storm or two, however, forecast soundings are still
unimpressive with long, skinny CAPE profiles and weak lapse rates.
Won`t rule out a pulse storm that manages to briefly produce
small hail or gusty winds, but the overall risk for severe storms
remains very low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The front stalls again just to our southeast on Tuesday.
Temperatures cool down into the 70s behind the front, and the
front`s proximity to our southeast puts a low to medium chance of
lingering showers in this area for Tuesday. Temperatures will be
quick to rebound back into the 80s by Wednesday, and through the
remainder of the week, we enter a more summer-like pattern. A
series of shortwaves track through the area, bringing daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be more
diurnally driven, meaning chances will be highest each afternoon
and evening. Good news is that the threat for severe weather
remains low over the next week with little forcing and wind shear
not supportive for severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR. Clouds look to continue to linger over the mid state,
becoming more broken during the day Sunday. But cigs expected to
remain VFR. South southwesterly winds around 5 knots overnight
will become strong by late morning to around 10 knots gusting to
20 knots at KBNA/KMQY/KCKV and continuing through the afternoon.
Rain should stay to the NW of terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  87  66  77 /   0   0  70  90
Clarksville    64  85  65  77 /  10   0  80  70
Crossville     60  82  63  77 /   0  10  20  70
Columbia       64  85  65  76 /   0   0  60  90
Cookeville     63  82  65  77 /   0  10  30  80
Jamestown      61  82  64  77 /   0  10  30  80
Lawrenceburg   64  85  66  77 /   0   0  40  90
Murfreesboro   64  87  66  78 /   0   0  50  90
Waverly        65  85  64  74 /   0   0  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Barnwell