395
FXUS64 KOHX 061720
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Low risk for severe storms Friday afternoon into the early
  evening hours. Main concerns are damaging wind gusts and heavy
  rain potentially leading to localized flooding.

- Low risk for severe storms Saturday, however confidence is low
  in exact coverage and timing.

- While Sunday could be dry for most of Middle TN, unsettled
  weather continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A shortwave is tracking east through Missouri & Arkansas this
morning, and with it is a MCS moving along with it. It`s this
feature we`ll be watching closely throughout the day. Ahead of it,
showers and a few thunderstorms have already begun to popup across
Middle TN. This activity so far has generally be short-lived with
weak updrafts, however, we are still expecting a more favorable
environment for strong to severe storms by the afternoon hours.
Rich moisture is present across Middle TN with current dewpoint
readings in the 70s and a PWAT on the 12Z sounding of 1.62 inches.
This reading is just below the 90th percentile for the date, but
PWATs will be on the rise to 1.75 to 2 inches by this evening.
This abundant moisture combined with strong daytime heating will
result in a very unstable atmosphere with CAPE values of 1500-2500
J/kg. Bulk shear will also be improving as the day progresses to
30-40 knots which will better support updrafts.

CAMs do show the MCS off to our west weakening and potentially even
diminishing as it nears the Mississippi River. However, as the
shortwave continues to track into the Midwest, our very unstable
environment should be supportive of redeveloping these storms
through the evening. Confidence remains low regarding timing of
storms through the remainder of the day with models all over the
place. The general trend has been shifting the main timing of storms
to later with main line of storms perhaps not impacting the
Nashville area until the 6-7pm hour. Regardless, folks out and about
today should stay weather-aware through the evening. An areawide
slight risk remains in effect with the main hazards with any
strong to severe thunderstorm being damaging straight-line winds
and heavy rain. Forecast soundings do show okay mid-level lapse
rates at around 6.5 C/km so there remains a low chance for hail,
especially with any more discrete cells. The tornado threat is
very low with little helicity.

Storm coverage should wane by midnight, but the unsettled weather
continues into Saturday. Another MCS will be ongoing over the
Oklahoma area Saturday morning, and this will be another feature to
watch closely as it advances east. However, CAMs have been
consistently showing over the past few runs this one taking a more
southeasterly track which would either steer the stronger storms
into southern Middle TN or even bypass Middle TN all together. We
wouldn`t be completely out of the woods though for Saturday as still
plenty of instability and moisture would result in additional
thunderstorms during peak heating. Another areawide slight risk is
still in effect for Saturday, however, confidence in any severe
potential is low and will be dependent on the trajectory of the next
MCS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

By Sunday, a front finally pushes through Middle TN with storm
coverage tapering off. We do maintain low to medium rain chances
mainly across southern and eastern Middle TN ahead of the front. But
depending on how quickly the front makes it through the area, Sunday
has the potential to be a nicer day, especially for any outdoor
events in and near the metro area. But the unsettled pattern
continues into next week. By Monday, a large trough takes shape over
the Great Lakes area, helping to keep rain and thunderstorm chances
going into Tuesday. Models suggest we should get a break Wednesday
as the trough exits the area. Confidence is low in the overall
pattern late week, but for now, it looks to be unsettled enough to
warrant low rain chances through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across Middle
TN this afternoon. Coverage is expected to become more widespread
through the afternoon. A more organized line of storms is
forecasted to push through the area late this afternoon and
evening. Tried to provide best timing for thunderstorms in latest
TAFs. After 05z, most storm activity will have exited the area.
Behind the system, models are suggesting some mid-level CIGs
moving in after 06z, leading to widespread MVFR conditions through
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  85  71  86 /  60  70  80  30
Clarksville    70  83  69  84 /  60  70  90  10
Crossville     65  80  64  78 /  70  80  90  60
Columbia       70  84  69  83 /  60  70  80  30
Cookeville     67  80  67  79 /  70  80 100  40
Jamestown      65  81  64  78 /  70  80  90  50
Lawrenceburg   69  83  68  83 /  50  80  90  40
Murfreesboro   70  85  69  84 /  60  70 100  40
Waverly        68  81  67  82 /  60  80  90  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Cravens