461
FXUS64 KOHX 171128
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

- Severe weather continues into the overnight hours tonight, with
  damaging winds the most likely hazard.

- Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend, with lower
  severe chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Severe storms will continue to push east through middle Tennessee
into the early morning hours on Saturday. Though the threat for
large hail and tornadoes has waned, they are still possible.
Damaging winds are the main threat overnight with this line. The
line of storms should exit around 2 - 3 in the morning, leaving us
with a break through Sunday morning. Not much of a temperature
cooldown with this system, as highs will remain in the 80s through
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather on Sunday
associated with a warm front moving through the area. The associated
low pressure system will slowly move east just to the north of us,
causing a period of nearly daily thunderstorm chances across the
area with the possibility of some marginally severe storms as well.
Out of all these chances for thunderstorms, accumulated rain looks
to be in the 1 - 2" range, with the higher amounts closer to
Kentucky. Cooler temperatures, well...relatively, will come on
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs dropping into the 70s mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will increase this
afternoon and gust up to 20 knots, then go variable again this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  66  84  67 /   0  10  40  40
Clarksville    83  62  81  66 /   0  20  30  50
Crossville     80  59  79  60 /   0  10  30  30
Columbia       87  64  83  67 /   0  20  60  40
Cookeville     81  61  79  63 /   0  10  30  30
Jamestown      81  58  79  59 /   0   0  30  20
Lawrenceburg   85  64  82  66 /   0  20  60  40
Murfreesboro   87  64  84  65 /   0  10  40  40
Waverly        84  63  82  65 /   0  20  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Holley