026
FXUS64 KOHX 181657
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1157 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- Calm weekend ahead with high temperatures in the 70s to 80s.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into Monday,
  but the threat for severe weather is very low.

- Warm next week with shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Upper level ridge is set up over Middle TN with surface high
pressure sitting well off to the east. A broad area of low
pressure is tracking into the Great Lakes and is causing a 5 mb
pressure gradient from Memphis to Knoxville. This is creating a
35-45 knot 850 mb jet and breezy winds that will continue into
the afternoon gusting up to 30 mph. The breezy southerly winds
will help to warm things up into the mid 80s this afternoon. Wind
gusts will come down in the evening but it will remain somewhat
breezy with 10-15 mph winds. Lows tonight will fall into the mid
60s.

The low tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front
south but the ridge of high pressure will remain in place keeping
the front north over the weekend. Things will remain dry and warm
with highs in the mid 80s. Things will be less windy Saturday.
Mid to high level clouds will linger across the area today and
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A short wave trough will lift out of the four corners region on
Sunday with a surface low deepening over the Plains. This will
push a cold front into the western part of the state late evening
Sunday and into the western part of our area late in the overnight
into Monday morning. The front will continue to work east through
the region throughout the day Monday. CAPE over the west will be
very limited as the front pushes in keeping the thunderstorm risk
minimal. As the day goes on Monday we will see 350-700 j/kg of
CAPE build into the southeast part of the area a head of the
front. Bulk shear will be 35-45 knots which is enough for some
organized storms but sounding don`t show very favorable profiles.
CAPE will be long and skinny which is not great for robust
updrafts. Given the long and skinny CAPE we could see some small
hail with any stronger cells and maybe a gust of wind or two but
overall the severe threat looks very low. Highs Monday will range
from the mid 70s to mid 80s depending on what side of the front
you are on.

The front will be slow to exit and showers may linger into Tuesday
over the far southwest. As we head into the middle and end of the
week we will see troughing over the West which will bring us
southwest flow. A few short waves will kick out from the trough
and bring shower and thunderstorm chances. It`ll be more of a
summer pattern with the best chances for thunderstorms during the
afternoons with the highest instability. Shear looks to be weak
and the severe threat looks low at this point. Highs will be in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR will continue through the TAF period. Breezy south winds
today will gust around 30KT at times. Surface wind gusts will
diminish this evening setting up LLWS up to 40KT overnight.
Patches of mid and high level clouds will continue to pass over
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    83  66  83  63 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     79  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       84  63  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     80  62  83  63 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      80  60  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   82  63  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   84  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        83  66  83  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....13