379
FXUS64 KOHX 230435
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1035 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Satellite imagery this evening shows low clouds expanding into
Middle TN from the north. These clouds will continue to creep into
the area tonight. While temperatures will be chilly again, the
cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing for most of
Middle TN. The exception may be across the southwest where cloud
cover will be less, helping temps fall just below 32. Model
guidance shows a relatively large forecast temperature spread in
this area, suggesting that models are struggling with how cloud
cover will impact temperatures tonight. Tonight`s update puts near
30 degree temperatures tonight in the southwest while keeping the
rest of the area above freezing, but the expanding cloud cover
will have to be watched closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Colder air in place this afternoon with northerly winds and partial
cloud cover. Temperatures are generally in the 40s. Quite a bit of
stratus still in place to our north and northwest. Models lean
toward bringing this coverage down across our area through at least
the first half of tonight. We could see some partial clearing west
of I-65 after midnight. Thus, Low temps tonight look like 30s for
the area but we could see some near 30F lows in some of our western
counties depending on any clearing. The surface high bringing in the
colder air currently resides in the eastern Dakotas. This feature
will drop quickly south and will be positioned over the mid and deep
south by Saturday morning. Sunshine will return during the day but
another cold night will follow. Wind flow will return to southerly
on Sunday with a zonal upper flow bringing some high level
cloudiness across the area.

For the near term temps, again, we will start out near normal which
feels rather cold! But then, a zonal pattern will be in play with
rising heights and we will again be a good 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday afternoon. Looks like mid 60s for BNA. Otherwise,
I just dont see a freeze yet for BNA. Looks like mid 30s for the
next 2 overnights and then the warmup begins.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

In the extended forecast, a weak frontal system is expected Monday
night with some shower activity. Maybe a quarter of an inch or so.
Following this, a zonal pattern will continue with a warm front
lifting northward on Wednesday. Some upper level energy will work
upon the front as it stalls. Frontogenesis will commence with strong
low level forcing setting up and rain beginning by Wednesday night.
The approaching shortwave in the post frontal sector will allow for
the shower activity to continue into Thanksgiving Day. Rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches looks possible. Maybe a rumble or two of
thunder for Wednesday night, although it looks like mostly
elevated instability.

Thanksgiving Day and night, we have some colder air wrapping in.
It may be cold enough along the Plateau for a flake or two of snow
on the back side as the precip exits.

For the extended temps, mild on Monday. Then turning cooler through
the period. Look for falling temps into the 40s on Thanksgiving Day.
Maybe...just maybe...the 1st freeze could occur at BNA on Friday
morning the 29th or Saturday morning the 30th. We are certainly
overdue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Low clouds continue to stream into the area, resulting in
widespread MVFR conditions that will persist until Saturday
morning. Cigs at KCSV are expected to low to IFR after 06Z.
Conditions will improve back to VFR after 16Z. Otherwise, west to
northwest winds will finally relax by early Saturday morning to
less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  56  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    34  54  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     34  51  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       32  56  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     35  51  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  50  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   32  56  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   33  55  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        34  54  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Clements