971
FXUS64 KOHX 240525
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will gradually return to the forecast later this
  week as high pressure at the surface and aloft starts to break
  down. There are better rain chances this weekend and early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to back-build
toward Middle Tennessee from the east. Despite the instability of
the current air mass, broad subsidence has kept a lid on
convective activity today, and this is expected to hold at least
through Wednesday. In addition, the circulation around the high is
keeping deeper moisture far to the northwest of Middle Tennessee,
so look for the heat to continue to build throughout the local
area, hence the decision to extend the Heat Advisory out through
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Rain and storm chances will gradually return to the forecast
beginning on Thursday as the high pressure begins to break down.
Temperatures will start to back off slightly by this weekend as
rain chances simultaneously increase. Once a Bermuda High pattern
becomes re-established, we can expect the return of convective
activity during peak heating hours each day through the weekend
and into early next week. We may experience a shortwave passage
next Tuesday or Wednesday, by which time our PoPs will diminish
and temperatures will slide back to more seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period, with
SKC or some occasional FEW/SCT decks. Could see some patchy fog
into the 12z hour, but uncertain which TAF sites outside of SRB it
would affect, so left it alone for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    95  75  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     92  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     93  72  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      93  71  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   95  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        94  74  95  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley