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FXUS64 KOHX 170526
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- Intensifying heat wave will peak Monday and Tuesday with highs
  in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the triple digits
  west of the Cumberland Plateau. Cooler air will move in for
  late week.

- Little if any rain through Tuesday, then chances for scattered
  showers and storms increase Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Showers and storms came to an end a couple hours ago and have left
clear skies and LOTS of humidity in their wake. It`s still in the
mid-80s west of the Plateau. As we get past midnight and cool a
little, look for some patchy fog to develop, especially for those
who saw rain this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today as an upper level ridge axis
sits just off to our west. One or two storms can`t be ruled out, but
the biggest story will continue to be the heat. We got to 98 at BNA
this afternoon and I have no doubt we`ll at least match that. The
question is the Heat Advisory. With a similar environment of dew
points mixing into the upper 60s during the afternoon, Heat Index
values should only reach the low triple digits. Doesn`t mean it
won`t be stinkin` hot and humid still. Take the necessary
precautions if you`ll be outside tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Monday and Tuesday will be the hottest days of this "heat wave".
We`ll see the greatest influences from the upper ridge as it slips
closer to the mid-state. Right now, NBM probs are holding at 60-70%
chance of reaching triple digits on the mercury one of those two
days and these both bring the highest likelihood of needing a Heat
Advisory this week. Rain chances are almost zero.

On Wednesday, we start to lose the influences of the upper ridge and
we might even see the passage of a VERY weak front through Middle
TN. This would give us medium storm chances on Wednesday, if it
comes to fruition. However, if it does happen and we get a focus for
convection, we`ll need to watch storms closely.

Thursday, Friday and into the weekend are the days everyone is
waiting for. Behind this "frontal passage", temperatures should
relax back toward normal values. Diurnal rain chances will be
higher, especially Thursday and Friday, but at least you can go
outside and not cook an egg on the sidewalk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

No big changes to TAFs this cycle. VFR wind forecast for BNA, MQY,
and CKV. Watching IFR conditions overnight at CSV and SRB which
should improve by ~13z. Winds are NE at 4-7 kts during the
afternoon with only ~10% rain/thunder chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  76  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    98  75  98  73 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     89  69  90  66 /  10  10   0   0
Columbia       98  74  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     92  71  92  68 /  10  10   0   0
Jamestown      91  70  90  66 /  10  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   96  72  96  71 /  10  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   98  73  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        98  74  99  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Sizemore