133
FXUS64 KOHX 222337
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Near normal temperatures and medium rain chances (40-60%) for
  the weekend. No severe weather is expected.

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for the work week, with
  highs 10-20 degrees below normal expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have develop mainly over
the Plateau this evening. This activity will gradually trend down
as the sun sets. We will then be mainly dry overnight, there is
just a low chance for a few pop up showers as a vort max spins
over the CWA. We will see low clouds build in over the Plateau and
they could also see some patchy fog overnight. Low clouds and fog
will lift once the sun rises tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in
the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Clouds are starting to pop up out there this afternoon across the
mid-state as the atmosphere warms. Highs today look to be in the mid
80s to low 90s. Rain chances will creep up south of I-40 and east of
I-65 today. It`s a low chance (20-40%), and while there look to be
thunderstorms, we shouldn`t see any severe weather.

Rain chances increase on Saturday, as a stationary front and
inverted trough centered along the Gulf Coast produce rainfall to
the north instead of the south. As you move east on I-40 from
Waverly to Crossville, your chances of seeing raindrops increase
from a slight chance to likely. Some places on the plateau could see
up to half an inch of rain Saturday and Sunday, whereas metro
Nashville looks to be lucky to get a tenth of an inch. While severe
weather is not expected, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere
indicates that heavy rain could be a hazard from some showers and
thunderstorms that develop. Temperatures will be in the low 90s for
highs through the weekend, but after that the pattern will begin to
shift.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mother Nature decided that next work week was the right time to give
us the first taste of Fall. A cold front will pass through the area
Sunday, ahead of its parent cyclone. We could see some showers with
the cold front as it passes through, mainly in our eastern areas.
The low pressure system, while it will stay to our north, is so
strong it will advect in plentiful amounts of cold and drier air
behind that front. Looking at guidance, temperatures continue to be
10-20 degrees below normal into mid-week next week. Best of all,
less moisture in the incoming air mass means very low precipitation
chances next week and an overall drier feeling to the air outside.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms near KCSV will diminish by
02z. IFR/LIFR cigs will build in after 05z for KCSV and KSRB,
other terminals will remain in VFR. Low cigs will improve by 14z
with VFR conditions returning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop after 21z for areas south and east of Nashville. Light
northerly winds under 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  90  70  90 /  20  40  10  10
Clarksville    66  91  66  88 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     66  81  64  80 /  40  80  50  40
Columbia       70  89  68  89 /  20  40  20  10
Cookeville     68  84  66  83 /  30  70  40  20
Jamestown      67  81  65  82 /  30  70  40  30
Lawrenceburg   68  86  67  87 /  20  50  30  10
Murfreesboro   70  89  68  89 /  20  60  30  10
Waverly        67  90  66  88 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller