458
FXUS64 KOHX 290513
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Widespread rain showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
  total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".

- Low to medium chances of light snow across northwest portions of
  Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Lower clouds are streaming across the area from the west tonight,
but temperatures will still be cold overnight. Lows will be in the
20s and possibly as low as the upper teens in areas east of I-65.

A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend,
bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks
to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east
into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance continues to
drop, with most likely QPF amounts looking to be 0.3" or less across
Middle Tennessee. Highest amounts will be in the northwestern part
of our area. Temperatures will briefly be warmer overnight Saturday
night before turning freezing again into the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The overall pattern will remain on the active side. A shortwave to
the north and surface low along the gulf coast will interact with
each other and bring a large swath of precipitation from the
southeast to the eastern seaboard. Guidance continues to back off on
wintry precipitation in the mid-state, nevertheless, we continue to
monitor it. Right now, a dusting is about a medium chance (40 - 60%)
in the area west of I-65 and north of I-40, with probabilities of
over half an inch in 24 hours decreasing to low-medium (20-40%).
That being said, there is still a lot of variability, but I am
pleased to see the location of the wintry precipitation not changing
drastically in the past 24 hours of model runs. Wintry precipitation
aside, a good soaking rainfall across Middle Tennessee seems likely
with this system even if your area doesn`t see the flakes fly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Passing high clouds
overnight with increasing mid-level clouds tomorrow morning and
afternoon. Scattered rain showers move in from west to east after
21z. Southerly winds under 5 knots overnight. Winds start to pick
up towards 18z becoming 7-15 knots with gusts up to 24 knots.
MVFR/IFR cigs build in after the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      28  52  37  45 /   0  20  60  20
Clarksville    27  48  32  40 /   0  50  80  10
Crossville     21  45  35  43 /   0   0  50  40
Columbia       27  51  37  47 /   0  20  60  20
Cookeville     23  48  35  45 /   0  10  60  40
Jamestown      22  46  35  44 /   0   0  50  40
Lawrenceburg   27  51  38  47 /   0  10  60  20
Murfreesboro   25  51  37  48 /   0  10  50  30
Waverly        29  47  31  42 /   0  50  80  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller