766
FXUS64 KOHX 040345
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1045 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Overall quiet weather for Independence Day and the weekend, but
  becoming hotter each day with increasing humidity.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return on Monday and persist
  through the upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure remains in full control across the region with
another push of dry air aloft working into the Middle TN area per
water vapor imagery. Lows in the 60s to near 70 are forecast into
Friday morning with patchy fog in the valleys or near rivers &
lakes. Independence Day will be dry and hot with highs in the
upper 80s to the mid 90s as deep-layer ridging builds overhead.
Quiet weather will persist through the holiday weekend, though
humidity will be on a slow increase once weak southerly flow moves
back into the TN Valley. This could push afternoon heat indices
toward the lower 100s for some places, though remaining below
advisory criteria. An isolated shower or storm is possible on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

More substantial PW increases are expected on Monday as the ridge breaks
down and a shortwave disturbance enters the Ohio Valley. This
will drag a weak/diffuse front toward the area with a corridor of
higher moisture and instability. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms look to return to Middle TN as a result. Subsequent
shortwave disturbances are suggested by medium-range guidance
which will favor both continued and increasing rain chances
through next week. Thus, it appears, another period of somewhat
unsettled weather is possible with humid conditions. Thankfully
temperatures will be suppressed to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with just a few
cumulus from time to time. Winds will be NNE/NE around 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    69  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     63  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       67  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     66  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      64  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   66  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   67  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        69  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Reagan