945
FXUS64 KOHX 200535
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

- Low to medium rain/storm chances on Wednesday, with best
  chances south and east during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may
  produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- More seasonal temperatures expected through this weekend with
  low rain chances.

- Temperatures below-normal forecast early to mid next week with
  a much drier air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Middle Tennessee is currently situated amidst a positively-tilted
upper-level trough that stretches generally from Texas through
the Great Lakes. A weak surface front is also approaching from the
north and is currently maintaining isolated to scattered showers
and t-storms across Kentucky and Tennessee despite decreased
instability. This activity will persist overnight into the early
morning hours. With afternoon heating, another band of showers and
t-storms should blossom near the front. Rain chances are best for
areas south/southeast today with northerly flow bringing drier
air in across the northern counties. Highs will still be somewhat
hot, but nowhere near the values achieved on Tuesday (we nearly
tied the record at BNA). With continued progression of the front,
more stable, cooler conditions are expected for Thursday with no
mentionable rain chances at this time. We`ll find lows in the
60s, to near 70, Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Fair weather is forecast to persist into this weekend with upper-
level ridging remaining in place across the Southwest and the
trough across the East. We`ll enjoy lower humidity values and
seasonal temperatures each day, and there`s little to no
rain/storm chances for areas west of the Plateau. Ensemble/NBM
guidance continues to paint low chances for the higher terrain,
but there`s low confidence this will pan out. Either way, eyes are
directing toward a more substantial upper-level disturbance
dipping down with the Polar jet on Sunday. This will be
accompanied by a cold front moving through the region by Monday
morning, though it`s not carrying much chance for rain due to
limited pre-frontal moisture. Thus, our first "taste of Fall" is
set to arrive early next week with temperatures well below normal
appearing likely. Lows in 50s are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A front is the area currently which is bringing a variety of cloud
cover and isolated showers/storms. Activity is too
disorganized/isolated to mention in TAFs, though I did include a
VCSH at CKV for a few hours. Mystery fog is also in the TAF for
SRB and CSV again tonight.

For the daytime hours, N winds are forecast to increase mid to
late morning behind the front. BNA, MQY, and CKV could see 8-10
kts with gusts to ~15 kts through the afternoon. I also penciled a
PROB30 for BNA and MQY to handle low TS chances 18-21z, but best
chances are for SRB and CSV through 18-00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  89  70 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    92  68  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     85  65  83  63 /  60  30  10   0
Columbia       93  69  89  67 /  40  20   0   0
Cookeville     88  66  84  65 /  50  20  10   0
Jamestown      85  66  82  63 /  50  30  10   0
Lawrenceburg   92  68  88  65 /  50  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   94  69  89  67 /  40  20   0   0
Waverly        92  67  88  65 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore