481
FXUS64 KOHX 221131
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
531 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Had a few reports of snow flurries earlier on the Upper Plateau.
Satellite is showing the final band of precipitation heading to
the northeast counties and it will be possible to squeeze out a
dusting before sunrise. These showers aren/t really showing up on
radar as they are below the beam. Will be interesting to see if
any COOP sites get to measure the first snow of the season across
Fentress...Pickett...or Overton Counties.

Once this precipitation leaves the area it will continue to be
cold and breeze today with a warmup in temperatures through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The long term starts out dry and actually quite nice for late
November. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower to
middle 60s for the most part with southerly winds. It will be a
great day to finish any outside chores one might have.

The remainder of the long term forecast is quite unsettled and
reminds me of an October pattern and not November. Rainy Monday
and Monday night with a break on Tuesday and the next front for
Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Heavy rainfall could be possible at
times. Right now storm total QPF looks a bit high at 2+ inches
from Wednesday through Friday...but even cutting this in half it
could be a very wet time period. WPC has been messaging heavy
rainfall so please stay tuned. There could even be some embedded
thunderstorms Wednesday night. Something else to keep watching
too.

For temperatures...Monday will be the warmest day with highs
approaching 70 west of the plateau and then abruptly back to
fall/winter and close to climatology for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A thick layer of clouds has consistently stayed right around 4kft
all night around CKV, BNA, and MQY. With that, keeping the taf VFR
as visible satellite currently shows some of that cloud shield
starting to break apart. Observations upstream do show cigs
bouncing between VFR and MVFR, so that is not out the question for
our terminals here in middle TN.


CSV and SRB cigs are MVFR. Improvement to VFR is possible later
this morning, but similar to above, cigs could bounce between VFR
and MVFR through the day. Winds will be gusty again today at all
terminals with gusts near 20kts out of the northwest. Winds will
relax after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  37  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     44  33  51  30 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       51  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     46  34  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      45  34  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   51  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   51  32  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....Baggett