238
FXUS64 KOHX 042339
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Overall quiet weather for Independence Day and the weekend, but
  becoming hotter each day with increasing humidity.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return on Monday and persist
  through the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The only activity on radar right now is across our southern-most
counties. Widely scattered storms have blossomed up over the last
few hours along a weak boundary, resulting in storms producing
heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Activity is diminishing
fast, though, and the majority of Middle TN will remain dry for
all of the holiday festivities tonight. It will be pleasant out
with temperatures in the low 70s, mostly clear skies and calm
winds. Have a safe and happy 4th!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Satellite showing clear skies across the mid-state, which will
continue into the evening this Independence Day. Expect clear skies
for the festivities, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today.

As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with
southerly flow into the mid-south. This will lead to triple digit
heat indices into next week, though we are expecting them to remain
below advisory criteria. The increase in PWATs to around 1.75" also
means that an isolated shower cannot be ruled out on the weekend,
but that chance is very low (<10%).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mid-level troughing will drop south into the week, allowing
disturbances to have more of an effect on middle Tennessee through
the mid week. A ridge in the desert SW will then flatten, allowing
the trough to dip further south at the end of the work week. With
further moisture advection into the area and these disturbances
traversing across the Ohio Valley then across the state, showers and
thunderstorms become increasingly likely through the remainder of
the period. With the usual caveat of precipitation amounts being
higher in thunderstorms, daily accumulations look pretty light right
now each day in the work week. Total accumulations through Thursday
continue to be less than one inch in the guidance, with a 20 - 40%
chance of accumulations greater than 1". As for temperatures, they
will return to near normal, which is still in the upper 80s and 90s
so the warmth continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. There is a very
low chance (less than 10%) that a shower or storm impacts a taf
site Saturday afternoon, otherwise expect few to scattered Cu from
the late morning through the afternoon. Winds will be less than 5
kts overnight and then increase to around 5 kts out of the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  96  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    71  94  73  93 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     66  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       71  94  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     68  91  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      66  90  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   69  92  70  93 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Reagan