016
FXUS64 KOHX 170147
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
747 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 740 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Cooler, dry weather for tonight and Monday.

- Active weather pattern this week with temperatures above normal
  after Monday.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few thunderstorms. No severe weather expected at
  this time.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure currently extends from the Upper Midwest into the
Tennessee Valley, generally on the backside of the longwave upper
trough. With clear skies and calming winds we`ll have a chilly
night with lows in the 30s to near 40. An upper low currently
near the Four Corners will move east into the Plains tomorrow with
high pressure moving toward the East Coast. Eventually a moisture
axis will enter our area from the west with a few rain showers
near a weakening front. Best rain chances tomorrow night is along
& north of I-40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1033 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The cold front has cleared the area with little fanfare. Other than
a couple blips on radar over Fentress County, the area stayed dry
with the fropa. We have drier air working into the region and RH
values are dropping with values expected to bottom out in the mid
20 to low 30 percent range. With a 10 mph north wind, burning
would not be advisable this afternoon. Surface high pressure is
moving towards the area from the Midwest. Clear skies and calming
winds will lead to a chilly night with lows in the 30s. The
surface high will move east across the area on Monday ahead of a
weak shortwave that will move through the Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1033 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ahead of the wave, moist, southerly low-level flow will increase.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Monday night
into Tuesday. The highest chances will be along the TN/KY border (40-
60%) with only low chances (10-20%) of rain along the TN/AL border.
The southerly WAA will continue Wednesday and Thursday which will
keep low to medium rain chances in the forecast. We continue to keep
an eye on a more significant wave that will eject from the
Southwest on Thursday. The trend has been to keep the better
forcing west and north of our area, but this will increase rain
chances Thursday night and Friday. The severe weather and flooding
threat with the system continues to look minimal as instability
is very low and the higher rain totals are expected to stay west
and north of Middle Tennessee. As far as temperatures, above
normal temperatures will continue through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Gusty north winds will become light early this
evening. Light north winds overnight will become east after
daybreak Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  64  48  74 /   0   0  20  40
Clarksville    35  63  48  72 /   0   0  40  70
Crossville     31  57  40  65 /   0   0  10  30
Columbia       36  65  48  76 /   0   0  10  30
Cookeville     34  59  43  68 /   0   0  10  40
Jamestown      33  56  40  66 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   35  64  47  75 /   0   0  10  20
Murfreesboro   35  64  45  75 /   0   0  10  30
Waverly        38  63  49  73 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Sizemore
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....13