291
FXUS64 KOHX 291725
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday.
  Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and localized flooding are
  possible with stronger storms.

- Temperatures warm back well into the 90s late week with drier
  weather currently expected for Independence Day and the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

There`s abundant moisture available once again today as noted by a
PWAT of 1.95 inches on this morning`s sounding - well above the
90th percentile for the date. Dewpoints are in the mid-70s at
this hour, and plenty of instability is already available with
CAPE analyzed at 2000-2500 J/kg this morning. Storms got started
early this morning in this unstable atmosphere with CAMs
indicating activity becoming more scattered this afternoon. The
severe weather threat remains very low due to lack of deep shear,
but any thunderstorm will still be capable of frequent lightning,
heavy rain, and gusty winds. Similar to yesterday, heavy rain
combined with slow storm motions may result in minor localized
flooding this afternoon.

The weather remains unsettled as we start a new work week as an
upper-level trough and an associated front tracks through the
Midwest starting Monday. Ahead of this front, PWATs will remain
at near 2 inches, and additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the area. The severe weather threat remains low
still due to the lack of deep shear. The front approaches the
TN/KY border late Monday evening and continues to progress south
through the area overnight. This keeps activity ongoing through
the overnight hours and into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The front slowly makes its way through Middle TN on Tuesday,
which focuses high rain chances across southern and eastern
portions of the area through the evening. Rain chances will
decrease behind the front, which leads to drier conditions being
favored on Wednesday with northwest flow aloft. Wednesday may even
be a relatively nicer day with lower dewpoints and humidity in
the afternoon. But temperatures will inevitably warm back up late
week and into next weekend as ridging builds back over the area.
So while your Independence Day forecast and subsequent weekend has
temperatures warming back into the mid- and upper-90s, it at
least looks to be much drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Radar trends indicate -SHRA moving through the mid-state, and
should impact TAF sites during the first few hours of the forecast
period. Have removed mention of -TSRA due to the lack of
lightning, but will monitor and amend if lightning activity
picks up. After sunset, expect VFR conditions with the possibility
of LIFR VIS and CIGS at CSV and IFR at SRB, which should clear
out between 13Z and 14Z tomorrow. SHRA/TSRA are expected again
during the late morning, so have included a PROB30 for this late
in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  90  73  89 /  30  60  40  60
Clarksville    73  89  73  87 /  30  60  50  30
Crossville     67  84  68  82 /  20  70  60  90
Columbia       72  88  71  87 /  30  70  40  60
Cookeville     69  85  70  84 /  20  70  60  80
Jamestown      68  85  69  82 /  20  60  60  80
Lawrenceburg   71  87  71  86 /  30  70  40  70
Murfreesboro   72  89  71  88 /  30  70  50  70
Waverly        71  88  71  87 /  30  60  60  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....05