792
FXUS64 KOHX 161718
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1118 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Cooler, dry weather for tonight and Monday.

- Active weather pattern this week with temperatures above normal
  after Monday.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few thunderstorms. No severe weather expected at
  this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1033 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The cold front has cleared the area with little fanfare. Other than
a couple blips on radar over Fentress County, the area stayed dry
with the fropa. We have drier air working into the region and RH
values are dropping with values expected to bottom out in the mid
20 to low 30 percent range. With a 10 mph north wind, burning
would not be advisable this afternoon. Surface high pressure is
moving towards the area from the Midwest. Clear skies and calming
winds will lead to a chilly night with lows in the 30s. The
surface high will move east across the area on Monday ahead of a
weak shortwave that will move through the Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1033 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ahead of the wave, moist, southerly low-level flow will increase.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Monday night
into Tuesday. The highest chances will be along the TN/KY border (40-
60%) with only low chances (10-20%) of rain along the TN/AL border.
The southerly WAA will continue Wednesday and Thursday which will
keep low to medium rain chances in the forecast. We continue to keep
an eye on a more significant wave that will eject from the
Southwest on Thursday. The trend has been to keep the better
forcing west and north of our area, but this will increase rain
chances Thursday night and Friday. The severe weather and flooding
threat with the system continues to look minimal as instability
is very low and the higher rain totals are expected to stay west
and north of Middle Tennessee. As far as temperatures, above
normal temperatures will continue through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with mostly clear skies.
Breezy northerly winds gusting up to 21 knots will gradually
diminish as the afternoon goes on and will become light by 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  37  63  46 /   0   0   0  40
Clarksville    64  34  62  47 /   0   0   0  70
Crossville     61  31  57  39 /   0   0   0  20
Columbia       68  36  64  46 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     61  34  58  41 /   0   0   0  30
Jamestown      59  32  56  39 /   0   0   0  30
Lawrenceburg   68  35  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   66  35  63  44 /   0   0   0  30
Waverly        64  38  62  48 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller