800
FXUS64 KOHX 031752
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Considerable flash flooding is ongoing this morning for most of
  Middle TN W of the Cumberland Plateau due to torrential
  rainfall. 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24
  hours with locally higher amounts likely not being measures.
  Flooding concerns will continue through the weekend.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms across
  portions of western Middle TN and a level 2 out of 5 for most of
  the rest of Middle TN. Latest models keep storms W of the
  Cumberland Plateau today and then mostly moving out of the
  Middle TN late tonight into Friday morning. Damaging winds,
  tornadoes, large hail, and torrential downpours will all be
  possible. Locations W of I-65 have the greatest chance to see
  strong storms capable of producing tornadoes and large hail.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Friday and Saturday. For now, Saturday holds a greater risk than
  Friday. Damaging winds will be the main concern, although
  tornadoes will remain possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion states occasional supercell
structures continue to be observed this morning with convection
moving across middle/northeast TN. With some
heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front that, there
will be some potential for storm intensification with cells that
can remain rooted near the boundary, which may move further north
through the day. With MLCAPE expected to increase through the
500-1000 J/kg along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles
expected to persist through the day, some threat for all severe
hazards could evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated
hail and damaging wind threat north of the boundary.

Latest HREF depicts storms training over Middle TN through
tonight then there is decent agreement that a break will develop
late tonight into Friday morning. By 7 AM Friday morning, most
storms look to be limited to North and West over SE KY and W of
the TN River. There is some risk for isolated strong storms to
develop Friday afternoon then activity diminishes through the
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Come Saturday morning, a more organized line of storms looks to
redevelop and work there way across Middle TN from the NW to the
SE. There will be a severe threat with these storms, with severe
hazards possible. Storms will be slow to push E across the state,
finally moving on out through Sunday afternoon. Flooding will be
an ongoing concern through the first of next week.

A much needed break from storms will set up by Monday with the
next chance for rain on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Significant differences in flight conditions with MVFR/IFR
conditions at CKV with periods of showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rains and lower ceilings. BNA flight conditions will vary
greatly depending on periods of convection through 06Z. For MQY,
SRB and CSV, generally VFR conditons with the main concern being
strong southerly winds through this evening due to the tight
pressure gradient.

For Friday morning, a gradual improvement for CKV and BNA, with
all TAF sites becoming VFR during the morning. Winds will remain
brisk out of the south with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION.....99