Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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139 FXUS64 KOHX 091737 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Showers continue to move north and east this morning, and obs sites west of the TN river are now showing some of that precip reaching the ground. CAMs show showers running into drier air over the mid state early this afternoon for most of the area before finally able to break through later in the afternoon and especially this evening. Areas west of I-65 will likely see showers put down a tenth to maybe three quarters of an inch of rain before this evening. As the strong Plains low continues northward, additional WAA and moisture will move in, and will allow for some thunderstorms to develop this evening and overnight. Not expecting anything severe with the lack of stronger instability but there is decent deep layer shear that could yield some gusty winds with any stronger updrafts. Southerly winds will remain strong overnight outside of showers and storms, with speeds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph, especially at higher elevations. Cold front will push east Sunday, and rain chances will also increase and push east during the afternoon hours. Rain chances should come to an end Monday morning and the front will be completely through the mid state by then also. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 After the rain moves through Sunday night, we are still looking at around a half inch to an inch on the Plateau, and 1 to 2 inches for the rest of the mid state through the weekend. Drier air will move in Monday with somewhat zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough will move into the region Tuesday but looks dry, and ridging will move in right behind it. The ridge will be short lived as a stronger trough moves east from the Plains later on Wednesday, and will bring in our next shot at rain. Ensembles are not in complete agreement on timing yet, and even the deterministic solutions are not completely on board with rain Wednesday into Thursday. But nevertheless that trough will be our next shot at seeing more needed rainfall across the area. Models do agree that we will be a little cooler after this trough, with highs in the 60s Thursday through Saturday and lows in the 40s for most of the mid state. Drier weather returns Thursday into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Light SHRA will spread across airports this afternoon/evening and continue into tonight before becoming more scattered on Sunday. Cigs will gradually lower to MVFR/IFR with vis becoming MVFR this evening/tonight. LLWS is also expected as a strong southerly low level jet develops overnight with speeds around 40-45 kts. Light southeast surface winds this afternoon will increase and become southerly overnight into Sunday with gusts to around 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 60 72 56 / 60 100 80 70 Clarksville 70 60 71 50 / 70 90 90 30 Crossville 72 53 65 53 / 20 70 70 90 Columbia 74 59 71 56 / 80 90 80 80 Cookeville 74 57 68 55 / 30 80 80 90 Jamestown 73 55 67 54 / 20 80 80 90 Lawrenceburg 75 59 71 57 / 70 90 60 80 Murfreesboro 76 59 72 57 / 60 90 70 80 Waverly 70 60 71 52 / 80 100 90 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Shamburger