639
FXUS64 KOHX 011115
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through today. Frequent
  lightning and heavy rainfall are possible with stronger storms.

- Temperatures warm back well into the 90s late week with drier
  weather currently expected for Independence Day and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A cluster of showers and storms are ongoing along the Mississippi
River in West Tennessee. High res guidance wants to squash the
activity as it moves eastward toward the Tennessee River, but the
environment ahead of those storms is favorable for those storms to
continue with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg. If the
storms do hold together, I am not expecting anything severe.

More storms will develop late Tuesday morning ahead of the mid
level trough axis and surface cold front. The setup has not
changed with ample moisture ahead of the front with PWAT values
approaching 2", weak mid level lapse rates, and 10-15 kts of
effective bulk shear. This should translate to storms that are a
little more progressive which should keep the flood threat low,
but rainfall rates will be high at times. Severe storms are not
expected given the weak lapse rates and low shear.

The cold front will clear Middle TN by 03z Wednesday with a drier
pattern settling into the region. Some patchy fog is likely prior
to dawn on Wednesday. The air mass on Wednesday will be less humid
with dew points in the 60s instead of the 70s and highs in the
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The upper pattern will see a upper ridge strengthening as we go
from Thursday into the weekend. This means temperatures will climb
into the low to mid 90s for Independence Day with plenty of
sunshine. The long weekend will be hot and dry with the upper
high in control. Some low diurnal storm chances may return as we
get into the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Low cigs are impacting mainly portions of southern and eastern
Middle TN this morning. One more round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected through this afternoon as a front moves
through the area. This activity will likely bring MVFR cigs and
visibilities through the area. Once showers and storms clear the
area around 00Z, drier air moves into the area as winds become
northwesterly. MVFR to IFR cigs will likely redevelop along the
Plateau overnight along with patchy fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  69  91  69 /  60   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  68  89  68 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     82  65  84  61 /  80  30  10   0
Columbia       85  67  88  65 /  60  10   0   0
Cookeville     82  65  85  63 /  80  20   0   0
Jamestown      82  65  84  61 /  90  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  66  88  65 /  70  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   87  68  89  65 /  70  10   0   0
Waverly        85  66  88  66 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements