746
FXUS64 KOHX 151108
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
608 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Prolonged heat and humidity continues this week, warranting a
  Heat Advisory for most of Middle TN through Wednesday evening.

- Rain chances remain low through Saturday and begin to increase
  Sunday and Monday.

- A gradual cooldown is on tap Sunday into early next week, but
  temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This evening`s 00Z analysis placed a 595 dam midlevel ridge
centered over Middle TN. For mid September, this is about the 99th
percentile of 500 mb height climatology. This extremely late
season ridging will manifest in heat impacts for much of the
Tennessee River Valley this week. High temperatures on Tuesday are
forecast to be in the upper 90s. HREF probabilities are hinting
at a low chance (30%) of Nashville hitting 100 degrees Tuesday,
which would be the second latest 100 degree day at BNA on record.
This heat also comes with an uncomfortable tinge of humidity,
warranting a Heat Advisory for the majority of the area through
Wednesday evening. A potential extension of the Advisory through
Thursday was discussed on shift, but things are looking much more
borderline on Thursday so did not opt for an extension just yet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We`ll be stuck in this hot and dry pattern through at least the
end of the week. Low-end PoPs remain confined to the Plateau,
leaving the rest of Middle TN with upper 90s temperatures and no
rain to provide any relief. The upper level pattern finally begins
to flatten out a bit as we move into the weekend. In the absence
of such prominent ridging aloft, temperatures naturally trend back
toward normal, finally dropping back below 90 degrees after the
passage of a bonafide cold front on Monday. Tuesday continues on
the wetter and cooler trend, finally ushering in the first taste
of fall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. We will see quiet weather
with a few mid-level clouds during the afternoon. Southerly winds
up to 8 knots after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  76  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville   100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     90  67  90  67 /  10   0  10   0
Columbia      100  74  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     94  72  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      90  70  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro  100  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        98  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
TNZ005>010-023>033-056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dirkes
LONG TERM....Dirkes
AVIATION.....Mueller