656
FXUS64 KOHX 240519
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1219 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected east of I-65
  through this evening. No severe weather expected.

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for next week with highs
  10-20 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

As of 10 pm CDT...skies across Middle Tennessee are partly to mostly
cloudy, mainly due to a couple areas of clouds along the Cumberland
Plateau and our incoming frontal boundary. Temperatures have cooled
into the 70s with light and variable winds. We are starting to see a
couple reports of fog along the Cumberland Plateau, a trend that
will likely continue. Latest WSR-88D trends At the surface, a cold
front is moving southeast across the Midwest, and will bring us our
long awaited relief from the heat and humidity tomorrow. Aloft, a
longwave trough was quite evident across the northern United States,
while the ridge of high pressure that has plagued the South since
July has now shifted west, extending across the Pacific Coast and
Rockies.

For tonight into tomorrow, expect patchy fog to persist and become
more widespread along the Cumberland Plateau by sunrise. This should
burn off quickly in the morning. A few showers will be possible now
into tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, though coverage should
be minimal compared to Saturday afternoon. All eyes will be on the
front, which should move through during the day Sunday. North winds
will increase, and we`ll feel that drop in humidity during the
afternoon/evening. It`ll be warm once again Sunday with daytime
highs in the 80s, and approaching/exceeding 90 one last time for a
while.

On Monday, finally! What we`ve all awaited...cooler weather! We`ll
be dry with no chance of precipitation. With those dewpoints
expected to be in the 50s, a light north wind, and afternoon high
temperatures in the 70s and low 80s, expect widespread afternoon
time off requests and a substantial increase in outdoor
activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For this long-term forecast period, expect benign weather to
continue throughout, though there may be a couple chances for some
light precipitation, mainly Thursday Night and Sunday. Our longwave
trough should remain entrenched across the northern United States,
which will keep Middle Tennessee under northwest to west flow aloft.
A few disturbances will move through the flow and approach our
region, but it shouldn`t amount to much. Looking through our
probabilistic forecasts, I`m struggling to find anything more than a
slight chance (10-30%) of more than 0.01" inches, and a very low
chance (less than 15%) for anything more than 0.10" inches. In other
words, if you`re expecting any precipitation, you`ll be disappointed.

With our persistent new weather pattern expected to last into next
week, we should not expect much of a warming trend, or even a return
of moisture from the Gulf. It looks like there`s around a 60% chance
we`ll start to see dewpoints exceeding 60 degrees again by the
weekend, though there is almost no chance of dewpoints exceeding 70
degrees. Therefore, the airmass should remain quite comfortable for
us here in Middle Tennessee. After a few days with afternoon highs
in the 70s to low 80s (Monday through Thursday), we`ll see a little
bit of a warm up...to the low to mid 80s for Friday into the
weekend. Enjoy this luxurious weather, though with the persistent
dryness and temperatures in the 80s, drought conditions are
guaranteed to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

BNA/MQY/CKV are expected to remain VFR for the taf period. NNW
winds will increase to 5-10 kts late in the morning with some
gusts up to 15-20 kts during the afternoon before decreasing in
the evening to around 5 kts.

For CSV/SRB, showers will linger around the terminals through the
overnight hours with the best chances from 06-09z. Areas of fog
could impact the terminals prior to 13z as well. VFR conditions
are expected to return around mid morning for the remainder of
the taf period. NNW winds will increase to 5-10 kts during the
late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  61  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  57  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     80  54  74  51 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       89  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     83  55  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      81  54  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   87  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   88  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        87  57  81  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Husted
LONG TERM....Husted
AVIATION.....Reagan