566
FXUS64 KOHX 031114
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
614 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with
  temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places
  on Independence Day.

- Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the
  holiday weekend.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure remains situated from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio
Valley, with drier air bringing quiet weather across Middle TN.
PWs are in the 1.0-1.1" range; about half the values from our
recent rainy period. Rain-free weather will persist across the
area through the short-term period with warm (hot) afternoons.
Temperatures will be on the increase by Independence day, with
highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the mid 90s near
Nashville.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Deep-layer ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS this weekend,
with moisture increases expected across Middle TN with the return
of southerly flow. The combination of heat and increasing humidity
will result in an uptick in afternoon indices Saturday and Sunday;
from the 90s to the low 100s. An isolated shower or storm can`t be
ruled out on Sunday with PWs rising back into the 1.4-1.5" range.

A few low-amplitude disturbances appear to pass north of our
region on Monday, with further moisture increases through the
area near a diffuse front nearby. This will foster an increasing
presence of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through mid
next week. Medium-range guidance is suggestive of a decent
shortwave moving toward Tennessee on wednesday, so PoPs are medium
to high at this time. Increased rain chances and lessening
presence of ridging will suppress temperatures to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Patchy fog this morning is resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions
across portions of southern and eastern Middle TN, including at
KSRB. This will diminish through mid-morning. VFR conditions
prevail thereafter with light northerly winds and mostly clear
skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    90  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     85  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     86  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      85  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   88  65  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   90  67  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        89  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements