045
FXUS64 KOHX 301725
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

- Heat is the primary hazard through Thursday with triple digit
  heat indices each afternoon. Cooler temperatures arrive Friday
  and into the weekend.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue into early next
  week.

- Severe thunderstorm threat is very low, but stronger storms will
  be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Strong high pressure continues its hold on the central part of the
US, and with it, heat remains the main story. Temperatures late this
morning are already in the upper-80s and are forecast to make it
into the mid and upper-90s this afternoon. Dewpoints are expected
to be a little lower this afternoon, mixing out into the
upper-60s to low-70s. So while maximum heat index values still
reach into the triple digits, most locations will likely fall
short of 110 degrees. Still, impacts will be felt by all in this
prolonged heat wave so will keep the Extreme Heat Warning & Heat
Advisory going. Be sure to stay hydrated and limit your time
outdoors during peak heating.

Most places will stay dry today, but some moisture moving into the
area will allow for 20-40% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon,
primarily favoring areas near the Plateau. No severe weather is
expected, but storms will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds.
Storm coverage should gradually taper off after sunset.

The upper-level ridge starts to break down on Thursday as a large
trough takes shape to our north. In response, temperatures trend
down a couple degrees compared to today. This trough also sends a
front south through the Ohio Valley although it doesn`t look to
arrive into Middle TN until late Thursday. Still, weakening high
pressure and this approaching front will result in higher rain
chances of 40-70%. Before any rain is able to provide any relief,
heat indices will still reach into the triple digits, and the heat
risk map still shows major heat impacts being felt because of it.
With that, decided to issue the Heat Advisory for most of Middle
TN for one more day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A big temperature swing is expected on Friday. On the backside of
the front, high temperatures will be in the 80s - much cooler than
they have been in a while. Abundant moisture will still be in place,
however, leading to additional scattered thunderstorms through the
afternoon. With northwest flow aloft persisting through the weekend,
the good news is that these cooler temperatures stick around with
highs in the 80s each afternoon. There will be enough moisture to
allow for medium chances (40-60%) for showers & thunderstorms each
day with coverage primarily favoring the Plateau.

A trough tracks through the area Monday and into Tuesday which will
keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading
into early next week. With this trough`s passage, model guidance
indicates an increase in bulk shear to around 30 knots. This may
be enough for a low chance for a stronger storm with gusty winds
Monday and into Tuesday. By the middle of next week, high pressure
takes hold again of the central part of the US which likely leads
to a return of temperatures in the 90s. So be sure to enjoy the
cooler temperatures while we have them!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR Conditions expected at most TAF sites into tonight. CSV and
SRB could see some showers this afternoon, with a TEMPO group
running for this through 22Z. The fog settles in in the same area
just after midnight, lasting through 13Z. Not expecting anything
dense, but patchy fog with vsby reductions down to 1 mile are
possible. Winds will be variable today and tonight, picking up to
be out of the NW tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  96  74  87 /  10  30  30  50
Clarksville    75  95  72  83 /   0  30  30  30
Crossville     70  88  69  82 /  40  50  30  70
Columbia       74  95  73  86 /  10  30  30  50
Cookeville     72  90  71  82 /  30  50  30  60
Jamestown      70  89  69  80 /  30  50  30  60
Lawrenceburg   73  94  72  86 /  20  40  20  60
Murfreesboro   74  96  73  87 /  20  40  30  50
Waverly        73  95  71  82 /   0  30  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
TNZ005>008-023>028-056>062-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ009-010-029>033-
063>065-077>080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Holley