953
FXUS64 KOHX 261735
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and
  especially this weekend.

- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

We are a touch cooler right now than we have been previous days
due to a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms that pushed
north through the western half of the area this morning.
Temperatures are sitting around 80 to 85 degrees, however,
satellite does show pockets of clearing within the cloud shield,
so temperatures will continue to rise through the afternoon. With
dew point temperatures still in the 70s, today will once again
feature very hot and humid conditions with heat index values in
the triple digits. As for thunderstorm development through the
remainder of today, the latest HREF brings pretty widespread
scattered activity this afternoon assuming clouds continue to
clear out enough for instability to ramp back up. Similar to
previous days this week, there is very little thermodynamic
support for severe thunderstorms as bulk shear values are in the
single digits and mid-level lapse rates are poor. CAPEs will be
high, though, so any storms that do develop will likely go up very
quick. DCAPE values jumped out at me today with values near 1300
J/kg, and coupled with PWAT values still near 1.70", very heavy
downpours will be possible. This could lead to gusty winds and
flash flooding, so be very cautious if you get caught under a
storm today.

Activity will dwindle down this evening and it will be another
warm and muggy night with lows in the mid 70s. Friday will feature
similar conditions with perhaps more widespread convection as the
ridge continues to break down.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The heat advisory will finally be allowed to expire at 7 PM
Friday. As we move into the weekend, daily rain and thunderstorm
chances will stay with us as we lose the influence of the ridge.
It will still be hot and humid, but temperatures will be back
closer to what we`re used to in late June as drier air is allowed
to mix back in, keeping heat indicies lower. An upper level low
will move across the Great Lakes at the start of the work week
that will eventually bring a front through the area. This
currently looks to happen on Tuesday. PWAT values look to increase
once again to near 2" which exceeds the 90th percentile sounding
climatology for Nashville. Efficient rainfall rates will be
possible with any activity we see through mid week, so again, be
on the lookout for any flooding. On the plus side, bulk shear
values currently look low each day, generally less than 10 kts,
so this does not favor severe weather. Temperatures will be near
normal through next week with daily highs in the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Light and variable to light SW winds this afternoon with VFR
conditions. Scattered thunderstorms develop across the CWA late
this afternoon into early evening. Tonight, some areas of reduced
VIS is possible throughout Middle TN. VFR conditions and light
winds continue through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  75  92 /  20  40  20  60
Clarksville    74  93  74  90 /  10  20  30  60
Crossville     68  87  68  85 /  20  60  30  70
Columbia       72  92  72  91 /  20  50  20  60
Cookeville     70  88  70  86 /  20  50  30  70
Jamestown      69  88  68  86 /  10  50  30  70
Lawrenceburg   71  91  71  89 /  30  50  20  60
Murfreesboro   72  93  72  91 /  20  50  20  60
Waverly        72  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Cravens