060
FXUS64 KOHX 140355
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1055 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 942 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Low to medium (20-40%) storm chances today. No severe weather
  is expected, but heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

- Heat returns tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid to
  upper 90s. Heat indices rise into the low triple digits west of
  the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Showers have diminished across Middle TN late tonight. Monitoring
the possibility for areas of dense fog later this morning. Right
now, there`s still a bit of cloud cover, so confidence on how
widespread any dense fog will be is low. That said, I still
expect for at least some reduced visibilites come time for your
morning commute.

A mid-level short wave will keep scattered showers and
thunderstorm chances today, although not as widespread as
Wednesday. We will still need to monitor the flooding threat, as
PWATs remain above 1.50 inches.

A pattern change develops as high pressure builds to
the west. With this, dry and hot weather will prevail through the
end of the week. Highs are expected to climb into the low 90s
today and mid 90s by Friday. As for overnight temperatures, there
doesn`t look to be much relief with lows only dropping into the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

The heat sets in by the weekend, with highs climbing to near 100
degrees Saturday and through early next week. Hotest temperatures
are expected west of the Cumberland Plateau. Additionally, there
will be ample moisture around, so heat index values are likely to
be between 100-105 degrees. Although heat index values look below
criteria at this time, heat impacts will still be felt throughout
Middle TN. Those with plans this weekend should keep heat safety
tips on their mind. Looking a little further out, rain chances
being to return Wednesday and Thursday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions at issuance, however due to this afternoon`s rains,
high chance of IFR to LIFR cigs and vis, especially at CSV and
SRB after 05Z. IFR to MVFR at MQY and CKV after 05Z. VFR
conditions should return by mid-morning Thursday. TS probs
Thursday afternoon are too low to include attm, but may need to
add in future TAFs. Winds Will be light (less than 10 kts and
mainly southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  92  74  94 /  30  40  10  10
Clarksville    72  92  72  94 /  30  30  10  10
Crossville     68  84  67  87 /  30  50  10  20
Columbia       72  91  71  94 /  50  40  10  20
Cookeville     69  86  70  89 /  30  40  10  20
Jamestown      68  84  67  88 /  40  40  10  20
Lawrenceburg   70  89  70  92 /  50  50  10  20
Murfreesboro   72  91  72  94 /  40  40  10  20
Waverly        70  92  71  94 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Unger