947
FXUS64 KOHX 070426
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1126 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Low risk for severe storms Saturday. Confidence is low on
  coverage area, but storms should begin around midday and last
  through early evening, much like Friday. Damaging wind and heavy
  rain will be the main threats.

- While Sunday should be dry for most of Middle TN, unsettled
  weather continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Unlike yesterday, the radar has been lit up all day today. Several
spots saw wind damage across the area along with very heavy
rainfall. I think we can expect an isolated shower or two
overnight, but for the most part, things should be much quieter
than earlier.

Downside is, I don`t think we`re done with the active weather. The
TN Valley region remains in a zonal flow aloft and with yet another
MCS expected to develop across OK/AR later tonight, this flow
pattern is expected to push another round of storms towards the mid-
state tomorrow. Latest CAMs (and surprisingly the GFS and NAM are
showing it, too) are displaying a robust MCS rolling through the
area midday and into the early afternoon hours tomorrow. Forecast
soundings aren`t really all that impressive, but then again, they
weren`t leading up to today, either. So, since I`m squarely looking
at soundings for tomorrow that looked like what I was seeing last
night, I have to say we`ll have yet another day of wind and heavy
rain threats, much like today. If there`s anything that could throw
a wrench in this forecast is morning cloud cover across the area,
which is expected. This could help keep the area a little more
stable ahead of the storms. In any event, whether we see wind from
these storms or not, if you have outdoor plans, watch the forecast
and radar closely because there will be plenty of lightning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

If today stunk for your outdoor plans and you don`t like the
forecast for tomorrow, Sunday might be more your speed. Models have
been persistently showing dry conditions, so you might need your
umbrella, but not for rain -- to block the sun. We really could use
Sunday as a break because the active weather pattern looks to pick
right back up on Monday and Tuesday with additional weather system
each day. Neither looks exceptionally impressive in regards to
severe weather, but you`ll want to keep an eye on both days if you
have outdoor plans.

Extended guidance would suggest Wednesday could be another calm day,
but then we get back into the active pattern as next weekend
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and storms continue to push through Middle TN
this evening. Unless directly affecting by a storm, VFR conditions
are expected through about 06-07Z. An MVFR to IFR deck is expected
after this time for all terminals. This should stick around until
17-18Z when VFR conditions return. Winds will be light (less than
10 kts) and mainly westerly through the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  86  71  84 /  60  60  70  10
Clarksville    70  83  69  83 /  70  60  50  10
Crossville     65  81  64  77 /  70  50  80  40
Columbia       70  85  68  84 /  50  60  70  20
Cookeville     67  81  66  78 /  60  60  80  20
Jamestown      65  81  64  78 /  80  60  80  20
Lawrenceburg   69  85  67  83 /  50  60  80  20
Murfreesboro   70  86  68  84 /  60  60  80  20
Waverly        67  82  66  82 /  50  60  60   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Unger