546
FXUS64 KOHX 201122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- High chance for rain (70-90 percent) with scattered
  thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather
  threat is very low.

- Warm next week with daily rounds of scattered showers and
  thunderstorms. Severe weather threat remains very low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Other than making a few hourly tweaks, the forecast looks to be
well on track. Thick high clouds might stymie our chance to reach
the afternoon record high of 87 (2002), but we`ve got a great
Easter in store with well above normal temperatures and no rain
in the forecast. Have a great day!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Mesoanalysis this evening shows a cold front stalled to our north
over central Missouri and Illinois. Taking a look further out
shows an area of high pressure off the SE US coast while a low
pressure system takes shape over the southern Rockies. Overall, a
quiet night is in store for Middle TN. Winds this evening are
calm across the area, and cloud cover will keep lows relatively
warm in the mid-60s. A very similar day to Saturday is in store
for Easter Sunday as the front remains stalled, and the high
pressure off the eastern coast helps keep our own weather dry and
warm. Clouds will stick around through the day, but highs should
warm into the low and mid-80s.

By Sunday night and into Monday, the aforementioned low over the
Rockies will eject towards the northeast, finally pushing a cold
front through Middle TN. This will bring a high chance (70-90%)
for rain and thunderstorms across the area through Monday. Great
news is that the risk for severe weather still looks to be very
low. CAPE values through the day on Monday will rise to around
300-750 J/kg, particularly across the east ahead of the front.
Bulk shear values rise to 30-40 knots which could help support a
stronger storm or two, however, forecast soundings are still
unimpressive with long, skinny CAPE profiles and weak lapse rates.
Won`t rule out a pulse storm that manages to briefly produce
small hail or gusty winds, but the overall risk for severe storms
remains very low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The front stalls again just to our southeast on Tuesday.
Temperatures cool down into the 70s behind the front, and the
front`s proximity to our southeast puts a low to medium chance of
lingering showers in this area for Tuesday. Temperatures will be
quick to rebound back into the 80s by Wednesday, and through the
remainder of the week, we enter a more summer-like pattern. A
series of shortwaves track through the area, bringing daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be more
diurnally driven, meaning chances will be highest each afternoon
and evening. Good news is that the threat for severe weather
remains low over the next week with little forcing and wind shear
not supportive for severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Other than high clouds blanketing the region, VFR conditions are
expected for this TAF cycle. Southerly wind gusts will pick up
again late this morning and while they may relax before sunset,
they are expecting to kick up again ahead of a line of showers due
into Middle TN overnight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected in
both windows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  66  77  57 /   0  50  90  30
Clarksville    85  65  77  53 /   0  80  60  10
Crossville     82  63  76  57 /  10  10  60  60
Columbia       85  65  75  57 /   0  40  90  40
Cookeville     82  65  74  57 /  10  10  70  50
Jamestown      82  63  75  54 /  10  10  60  50
Lawrenceburg   85  66  75  58 /   0  30  80  40
Murfreesboro   86  66  76  58 /   0  30  80  40
Waverly        85  63  77  54 /   0  70  60  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Unger