156
FXUS64 KOHX 121104
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

- A significant rainfall event is expected Saturday. There is a
  medium to high chance for flooding.

- River/creek rises will increase into the weekend, with a total
  of 4 to 7 inches of rain from today through Sunday.

- There is a low chance for severe weather on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Our brief lull in rain is coming to an end this morning as the next
wave of rain moves in across the south. Over the last 24 hours,
rainfall amounts have ranged from 2.5" to 3" along and north of I-40
to 1" to 2" south of I-40. This next wave will bring an additional
0.5" to 0.75" of rain to the area with the highest totals over our
southern counties and along the Cumberland Plateau. A strong cold
front will push through the area later this evening, but the risk
for thunderstorms today is very low with little to no instability
noted on the latest CAMs. Rain will come to an end late tonight
and we will dry out and cool off for Thursday with decreasing
clouds and highs in the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Dry conditions will stay with us through Friday. After a cold night
on Thursday with lows in the 20s, temperatures will rebound nicely
on Friday with highs in the 50s and a mix of clouds and sun. Our
weather takes another turn Saturday as a dynamic system moves across
the southeast. The synoptic setup features a deep trough
developing over the West Coast that starts taking a more negative
tilt as it approaches the south. In response to this, the low
level jet will strengthen to near 70 kts over middle TN. A
deepening surface low will move nearby with an attendant cold
front Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show warm air
advection filtering in along with plenty of moisture being pulled
in from the southwest thanks to the strong low-level jet. Let`s
talk severe storm potential first: 00Z model runs tonight have
backed off on severe potential, keeping the majority of
instability to our south. Given the setup, I believe strong to
severe storms could still be likely, especially across our
southern-most counties where the better instability is. Should
storms tap into decent instability, this would be an all modes of
severe weather type of deal. Stay tuned!

Now, let`s move on to the current bigger threat for Saturday:
flooding. There remains a consistent signal that more widespread
flooding to potential flash flooding will be likely with this
system Saturday. The NAEFS mean PWAT anomaly continues to
highlight the entire mid state as being a standard deviation above
normal climatology with an outlined area over our western counties
of near 3 standard deviations above climatology - all the more
signal for increased chance of flooding. WPC introduced a moderate
risk for flooding Saturday for a large portion of our area. This
means there`s at least a 40% chance of exceeding flash flood
guidance within 25 miles of a point. Current QPF values range from
2.5" across our south/southern Plateau counties to 4" to 5" across
our western and northern counties. Keep in mind: this is ON TOP OF
what we have received the past few days. Should we get any
stronger thunderstorms, this will only push rainfall rates up
higher, increasing the threat for flash flooding. Rises on rivers
and creeks is also expected with this wave. Please be cautious
Saturday and have multiple ways to receive warnings in the event
one is issued for your area.

The cold front will push through Sunday and temperatures will
plummet. Wrap-around moisture associated with the exiting surface
low could result in a few snow showers or wintry mix Sunday,
depending on temperatures. Regardless, little to no accumulation
is expected. Temperatures will stay cool to start the new week
with more rain chances by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR to LIFR cigs will continue through the TAF period along with
reduced visibility. Showers will lift northward and continue on-
and-off through the evening. A cold front will move eastward
through Middle TN after 00Z, resulting in a northerly wind shift
behind it. Showers will also come to an end behind the front.
There`s a low probability of thunder with activity today, but
probabilities remain too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  36  43  25 /  90  70   0   0
Clarksville    54  31  38  21 /  90  50   0   0
Crossville     53  34  43  20 / 100 100   0   0
Columbia       58  34  43  22 / 100  80   0   0
Cookeville     55  34  41  22 / 100  90   0   0
Jamestown      54  33  41  19 /  90 100   0   0
Lawrenceburg   57  36  44  23 / 100  90   0   0
Murfreesboro   58  34  43  21 / 100  80   0   0
Waverly        55  30  40  22 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Clements