179
FXUS64 KOHX 050536
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms
  late Friday afternoon and evening for most areas along and north
  of I-40. The risk level is 1 out of 5 elsewhere. Damaging winds
  will be the primary threat with large hail and localized
  flooding possible.

- Friday will be hot and humid with many areas in the 90s. Much
  cooler air will follow this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Scattered storms produced local downpours and gusty winds Thursday
afternoon, with most activity moving away and weakening around
sunset. Generally quiet conditions followed with patchy fog expected
in the late night and early morning hours, especially for areas
that received rainfall. Thursday evening satellite imagery showed
a thick plume of smoke in the high atmosphere steaming from fires
in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This smoke had
reached skies over Missouri, and the smoke will continue to
spread, making for a milky sky over Middle TN Friday. The HRRR
smoke model shows most of this smoke staying aloft.

We are continuing to watch late afternoon and evening for the return
of scattered storms including a slight risk for severe wx. Southwest
winds ahead of a cold front will really heat things up with
temperatures jumping up into the low to mid 90s for many areas
with heat index values near 100. The heat and humidity will push
cape values into the 1500-2500 range as deep layer shear increases
to 30-40KT. Several models are showing a significant compact
shortwave moving along the KY/TN line late afternoon potentially
setting off rapid storm development.

It looks like the first cells will start in our northwest around 3
or 4 pm with storms becoming more numerous as they spread across the
Mid State through the evening. The cold front (or cold pool) will
spread northwest to southeast across the area through the evening
quickly pushing the main severe threat to the Plateau and southern
counties around sunset. The main concern will be damaging winds.
Forecast soundings show invert V profiles supporting downburst
winds gusts. Although the tornado risk is low, it is not zero as
there may be a narrow window of enhanced SRH just ahead of cold
front.

After the cold front, a good deal of elevated instability will
remain in place as clusters of showers and storms continue, some
with heavy rainfall. This post frontal convective activity may
last well into the night. As mentioned by the previous forecaster,
those with outdoor plans Friday evening will need to monitor wx
conditions and be prepared to shelter if storms approach.

Post frontal showers will linger into Saturday morning before the
drier and cooler air pushes the moisture out of the area with
clearing skies Saturday afternoon. Post frontal highs will be
mainly in the 70s with lows mostly upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

The shot of cool and dry air this weekend will just be another
"false fall". An upper level high pressure center will build up to
our west with dry conditions and warming temperatures through
next week. Most days will climb into the 80s, and some 90s are
possible by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Expect VFR conditions and light/calm winds across Middle Tennessee
during the overnight period. Winds will increase from the SW
during the morning as a cold front approaches the mid state. Fropa
is likely to occur during the afternoon, but the bulk of the
active weather will be post-frontal, so we`ve included PROB30
groups for TS/CBs for the late afternoon and early evening west of
the Cumberland Plateau. For now, we`ll go with -SHRA at KCSV and
KSRB after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  63  76  53 /  50  80  40   0
Clarksville    94  58  77  50 /  60  80  30   0
Crossville     85  62  72  48 /  10  70  60   0
Columbia       95  62  76  51 /  40  70  40   0
Cookeville     88  62  72  49 /  40  80  50   0
Jamestown      87  62  71  49 /  20  80  60   0
Lawrenceburg   93  62  75  50 /  30  70  50   0
Murfreesboro   95  62  75  52 /  60  80  50   0
Waverly        94  57  76  50 /  50  70  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose