821
FXUS64 KOHX 181716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Dangerous heat continues into Tuesday with afternoon heat
  indices ranging from 105 to 110 degrees west of the Cumberland
  Plateau. Temperatures will gradually cool starting Wednesday.

- Rain chances will be low through Tuesday. Low to medium rain
  chances return to the forecast starting Wednesday. Thunderstorms
  may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows strong high pressure situated
over much of the southern Great Plains and into the southeast US.
With this high having more influence over the area today, this
should suppress rain and thunderstorm development through this
afternoon with CAMs and the HREF showing no convection. Meanwhile,
temperatures will be hot. Current temperature readings are already
in the mid to upper-80s, and highs are expected to reach into the
upper-90s. Thanks to high humidity, heat indices will rise around
105-108 degrees. Calm conditions are expected overnight with just
a low chance of patchy fog across the Plateau.

The heat wave continues into Tuesday with high pressure
maintaining its influence over the area. High temperatures Tuesday
rise a degree or two with readings getting very close to the
100-degree mark across the western half of Middle TN. Regardless,
heat indices will still be dangerously hot, generally in the
105-110 range west of the Plateau. A shortwave rounding the
periphery of the upper-level high may result in isolated
convection Tuesday afternoon, but these chances remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

By Wednesday, the upper-level high retreats back to the west, and
temperatures will cool off a few degrees. Rain chances will also
rise to 40-50% across the area as an upper-level trough moves
through the Ohio Valley and causes a weak front to dip south. The
front moves south through Middle TN late Wednesday, causing
highs to further cooldown into the upper-80s to low-90s Thursday.
Low to medium rain chances continue into Thursday and Friday with
highest rain chances focused across the south and along the
Plateau. There`s no obvious signs for severe weather, but there`s
a high chance for heavy downpours at times, especially with above
average PWAT values. This, of course, could lead to localized
flooding at times, especially with slower storm motions.

Low chance for rain continues into Saturday, but the big pattern
change comes Sunday into Monday. By late weekend, a large trough
moves over the Great Lakes/Ontario area, sending a strong front
south. This front brings in drier and cooler air. So by the time
we start the new work week, we`ll be looking for temperatures in
the 80s with dewpoints in the 50s!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR will prevail through the day with mainly northeast winds 5-8 KT.
Patchy fog will form late tonight with MVFR vsbys for CSV and SRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  99  74  95 /   0  10  10  50
Clarksville    73  98  73  94 /   0  10  20  50
Crossville     66  89  68  88 /   0  10  10  50
Columbia       72  98  72  95 /   0  10  10  50
Cookeville     69  92  69  90 /   0  10  10  50
Jamestown      66  91  68  89 /   0  10  10  50
Lawrenceburg   71  96  71  94 /   0  10  10  50
Murfreesboro   72  97  72  96 /   0  10  10  50
Waverly        73  99  72  94 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13