


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
630 FXUS64 KOHX 271711 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 - Medium to high chance of thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night. Still a lot of uncertainty about severity in Middle TN, so monitor forecasts throughout the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1009 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 As expected, this wave that came through here this morning was an absolute dud. A couple hundredths here and there, mainly north of I- 40, otherwise most remained completely dry. This was likely due to the dry air that was already place and the lack of umph this system had with it to drag any real moisture into the area. Initially I had some concerns about the resulting fire weather conditions, but after reviewing yesterday`s numbers and comparing them to today`s forecast, conditions shouldn`t be quite as bad. RHs should bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s (yesterday, many were in the teens), but we will have some gusty winds again this afternoon. Bottom line, I`d hold off on any outdoor burning until maybe this weekend when winds will be lighter and RHs solidly back into the 40 to 50 percentile range. Other than that, we won`t be quite as warm yesterday, but the sun will be out for everyone and we`ll have a couple of really great days ahead of us. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1009 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Biggest talking point in this forecast revolves around the thunderstorm potential Tuesday of next week. Current guidance suggests a fairly robust system coming off the Rockies Monday night and developing a very dynamic synoptic setup that will affect a fairly large chunk of the mid-south and Gulf States. There are a lot of details that need to be worked out with this one. As dynamic as it`s being portrayed, the shear values will naturally come with it, but there is a large question as to whether we`ll get the necessary moisture push into Middle TN to create enough instability for severe weather. Right now, we`re struggling to see dew points get out of the 40s. This would be a large limiting factor in our severe potential, but this could very well change in the coming days, so this system will need to be monitored through the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 VFR expected through the next 24 hours as dry high pressure moves into the area. This afternoon, west northwest winds will be gusty at times to 20KT with scattered cumulus clouds. Skies will clear with lighter winds tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 39 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 56 32 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 59 34 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 57 32 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 63 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 35 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 62 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....13