505
FXUS64 KOHX 260045
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
645 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- 40-60% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms along the
  Plateau through this evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Very light showers are noted over the northern Cumberland Plateau
just ahead of a frontal boundary. For the remainder of tonight,
patchy low clouds will linger with a few spotty pre-frontal
showers, but no severe weather is expected. The sharp cold front
will move through overnight, leaving us in a much cooler and drier
airmass by Wednesday afternoon. Highs tomorrow will top out in
the upper 40s to low 50s with overnight lows near or just below
freezing for all of Middle TN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Stratiform rain has exited to the east, but gusty southerly winds
persist this morning with gusts of 20-30 mph being measured.
These gusts will lessen this afternoon as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching
from the west, and at this time, is moving through Missouri. Ahead
of this front, we`re still expecting scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms to develop along the Plateau this
afternoon. The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has removed our CWA from
the marginal risk as parameters continue to look unimpressive for
any severe weather this afternoon. So fortunately, we are not
anticipating any impacts from activity that develops.

Showers & storms will gradually diminish after sunset, and then it`s
time for plummeting temperatures. The aforementioned cold front
sweeps through the area tonight, resulting in a much cooler
Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will only be the upper-40s to low-
50s - about 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to today. Behind the
front, northerly winds will be breezy, but it`ll be dry and sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Temperatures will continue to fall Wednesday night and into
Thanksgiving. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected
Wednesday night, and highs for the holiday will be chilly only in
the 40s. The good news is that Thanksgiving Day looks nice
otherwise with plenty of sunshine and no rain in sight. But if
you`re going out Thursday night or early Friday morning, bundle
up! The coldest period of this forecast will be Thursday night as
lows fall into the upper-teens to low-20s.

Surface high pressure builds over the area Friday and into the
weekend, leading to gradually warming temperatures. Meanwhile, a
longwave upper-level trough will begin to take shape to our west.
This trough moves into the Ohio Valley this weekend, resulting in
increasing rain chances late Saturday and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A period of MVFR cigs are expected to impact CKV/BNA/MQY overnight
as a cold front moves through the terminals. Behind the front,
winds will shift from the WSW to the WNW and increase to 10-15
kts. Gusts during the afternoon will increase to 20-25 kts. For
CSV/SRB there is a medium to high chance cigs remain IFR through
the overnight hours before VFR conditions return after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  54  33  49 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    41  51  31  47 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     43  53  28  41 /  40  10   0   0
Columbia       44  54  31  49 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     44  54  29  43 /  40  10   0   0
Jamestown      43  54  28  41 /  50  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   45  54  31  48 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   46  54  32  48 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        40  49  31  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Reagan