


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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176 FXUS64 KOHX 050258 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 958 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Mostly dry and hot through the weekend with widely scattered thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. - Rain and thunderstorm chances increase next week. - Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees through at least mid-week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Happy 4th! Or what`s left of it at least. All is quiet across Middle TN with temperatures in the upper 70s and light winds. The weather will remain quiet tonight with isolated patchy fog overnight. Saturday features widely scattered diurnally-driven thunderstorms that will pose a heavy rain and gusty wind threat. Similar to previous days, any outflows that kick off of a storm could provide enough lift to spark another. Activity will diminish after sunset tomorrow, giving way to another quiet and warm night with lows in the 70s. The upper-level high will start breaking down come Sunday with weak troughing moving into the area. This will increase our rain and storm chances as we head into the new work week. Models are currently keeping the majority of the day Sunday dry with the exception of a few pop-up afternoon thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 PoP chances will increase to 25-40% areawide Monday afternoon as moisture starts to build back in across Middle TN. Profiles feature very little bulk shear with values around 10 kts or less and poor mid- level lapse rates, however, PWAT value do creep back up near 1.90", so healthy rainfall rates will be possible in any storms. This same setup will follow into Tuesday. Deterministic models suggest a front will move through the area mid-week as an upper- level low traverses the Great Lakes region. Upper-level winds will increase as this low approaches during the Wednesday afternoon/evening timeframe, pushing bulk shear values up near 25 to 30 kts, particularly across the northern half of the CWA. Still several days out, but something to watch. Of note, PWAT values will continue to increase through the week with values exceeding 2" by mid-week - approaching the Climatological Max for this time of year, so we will certainly need to keep an eye out for flash flooding potential in any storms. With the increase in moisture and our normal summertime temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat index values will gradually rise through the week, though it appears indicies will largely remain below the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. Heat advisory or not, it will be hot and uncomfortable out with feel-like temperatures near or just above 100 degrees, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you have to be outdoors through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. There is a very low chance (less than 10%) that a shower or storm impacts a taf site Saturday afternoon, otherwise expect few to scattered Cu from the late morning through the afternoon. Winds will be less than 5 kts overnight and then increase to around 5 kts out of the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 71 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 66 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 71 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 68 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 66 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 69 92 70 93 / 10 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Reagan