630
FXUS64 KOHX 271711
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1111 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

- Medium to high chance of thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday
  night. Still a lot of uncertainty about severity in Middle TN,
  so monitor forecasts throughout the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1009 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

As expected, this wave that came through here this morning was an
absolute dud. A couple hundredths here and there, mainly north of I-
40, otherwise most remained completely dry. This was likely due to
the dry air that was already place and the lack of umph this system
had with it to drag any real moisture into the area. Initially I had
some concerns about the resulting fire weather conditions, but after
reviewing yesterday`s numbers and comparing them to today`s
forecast, conditions shouldn`t be quite as bad. RHs should bottom
out in the upper 20s to low 30s (yesterday, many were in the teens),
but we will have some gusty winds again this afternoon. Bottom line,
I`d hold off on any outdoor burning until maybe this weekend when
winds will be lighter and RHs solidly back into the 40 to 50
percentile range. Other than that, we won`t be quite as warm
yesterday, but the sun will be out for everyone and we`ll have a
couple of really great days ahead of us.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1009 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Biggest talking point in this forecast revolves around the
thunderstorm potential Tuesday of next week. Current guidance
suggests a fairly robust system coming off the Rockies Monday night
and developing a very dynamic synoptic setup that will affect a
fairly large chunk of the mid-south and Gulf States. There are a lot
of details that need to be worked out with this one. As dynamic as
it`s being portrayed, the shear values will naturally come with it,
but there is a large question as to whether we`ll get the necessary
moisture push into Middle TN to create enough instability for severe
weather. Right now, we`re struggling to see dew points get out of
the 40s. This would be a large limiting factor in our severe
potential, but this could very well change in the coming days, so
this system will need to be monitored through the weekend and into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

VFR expected through the next 24 hours as dry high pressure moves
into the area. This afternoon, west northwest winds will be gusty
at times to 20KT with scattered cumulus clouds. Skies will clear
with lighter winds tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  39  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    62  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     56  32  58  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       63  37  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     59  34  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      57  32  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   63  37  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   63  35  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        62  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13