052
FXUS64 KOHX 070603
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
103 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- There is a low flash flooding risk Tuesday, mainly across
  northwest Middle TN. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1"-3" are
  expected.

- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s and
  overnight lows in the 50.

- Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal
  temperatures and below-normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Light to moderate showers are ongoing this evening with a larger
cluster of showers slowly moving in from west Tennessee in
association with the remnant gulf low currently over Mississippi. As
this low moves north, it will eventually collide with the
incoming cold front, pushing a plume of higher moisture across
northwest Middle TN with PWATs near 2". Measured PWAT values on
tonight`s 00Z sounding show us sitting at 1.80" which is .01 away
from the daily max. Showers will continue through the overnight
hours, increasing in coverage and intensity as greater moisture
builds into the area. Very low chance for thunder overnight with
such saturated profiles and low instability. Moving into tomorrow,
overcast and showery conditions will persist. Our greatest
weather hazard will be flash flooding, and the overall threat at
this time remains low with a lack of instability and the ongoing
drought. However, CAMs tonight are hinting at the possibility of a
small window of enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg just ahead of the
front, and if that is realized, that will drive the flash flooding
risk up with higher rainfall rates. That risk is largely confined
to the northwest area of the CWA, and appears unlikely at this
time with overcast conditions expected. 1" to 3" is likely in
total by tomorrow night with the highest totals falling across the
northwest portion of the CWA. The HREF gives the Clarksville area
a 60% chance of surpassing 2" and only a 20% of surpassing 3".

For convective coverage, 00Z CAMs are initializing a narrow band of
thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Just as mentioned above, if there are any instances of
clearing tomorrow, it will ramp up instability, and with bulk
shear values around 30 kts, we could see a strong storm or two.
Severe weather chances overall are low, though. The front will
clear the area early Wednesday, ushering in a drier and cooler
airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Aside from the last bit of showers with the exiting front Wednesday,
the long term forecast brings all too familiar conditions back to
Middle TN.....dry and warm, though temperatures will be much
closer to seasonal norms. Temperatures will gradually warm each
day this week with 80s making a comeback by next weekend. Flow
aloft will shift northwesterly and with a large ridge building
across the central US, a series of upper level disturbances will
stream in. Moisture is lacking at this time, so we`ll see some
increase in cloud cover, but rain chances at this time each day
are less than 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Periods of rain/showers will persist across Middle TN for the next
several hours, particularly for BNA, MQY and CKV. In fact, chances
for rain remain quite high through ~21z for BNA and MQY, and
through ~19z for CKV. SHRA activity could also bring MVFR cig/vis
reductions as well. SE winds will become S during the afternoon at
8-12 kts. Once this activity declines behind the front, a NW
wind shift is forecast, as well as a period of LIFR/IFR cigs
tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  63  75  52 /  90  60   0   0
Clarksville    78  60  75  47 /  90  30   0   0
Crossville     73  61  70  47 /  80  90  10   0
Columbia       81  63  74  51 /  90  60   0   0
Cookeville     76  63  71  49 /  90  80  10   0
Jamestown      73  60  69  47 /  90  80  10   0
Lawrenceburg   80  63  73  50 /  80  60   0   0
Murfreesboro   81  63  74  51 /  90  60   0   0
Waverly        79  59  73  49 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Sizemore