640
FXUS64 KOHX 190522
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with afternoon heat indices
  ranging from 105 to 110 degrees west of the Cumberland Plateau.
  Temperatures begin a decline on Wednesday.

- Rain chances return across the far west and northwest Tuesday,
  with low to medium rain chances continuing Tuesday night
  through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce heavy
  rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- Temperatures near-normal are forecast mid to late week, with
  even cooler weather favored into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A broad upper-level ridge remains in place across much of the
CONUS which continues to favor our above-normal temperatures
across Middle Tennessee. Excessive heat will continue again on
Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the
upper 90s west of the Plateau. Heat indicies in the low to upper
100s are forecast Tuesday afternoon.

Latest guidance is starting to suggest a faster approach of a
front near the Ohio River on Tuesday. This is good news as
rain/storm chances begin to increase west of I-65, but mainly near
the Tennessee River, during the afternoon hours. Isolated to
locally scattered showers/storms are now expected ahead of the
front which could allow for pockets of cooler temperatures. This
front is forecast to approach Middle Tennessee Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning which could favor overnight convection as well.
I think best chances for showers/storms should stay along and
south of I-40 for Wednesday afternoon with northerly winds
providing drier air into Wednesday night. Forecast highs for
Wednesday have dropped a few degrees from previous.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

An elongated upper-level shortwave will work into the region on
Thursday behind the front that should settle to our south. This
will begin a period of more seasonal temperatures across Middle
Tennessee that appear to stick around into the weekend. Only low
to medium chances for rain/storms are in the forecast through
these days, generally across the south and along the Plateau where
best available moisture is in place to support diurnal activity.

Medium-range guidance continues to depict a more significant
upper-level trough to move into the eastern CONUS on Sunday with
a fairly evident continental air mass to sweep through the Plains,
Mississippi Valley, and into the Tennessee Valley by Monday
morning. A noticeable reduction in dewpoints is possible with
latest forecast dewpoints dipping well into the 50s. This pattern
change will support below-normal temperatures across a large
region, including us here in Middle Tennessee. We have lows in the
50s and 60s in our forecast for Monday and Tuesday mornings next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Nuisance/patchy fog is possible at SRB and CSV again overnight,
though TAFs are not as aggressive as in previous nights.

TAFs reflect VFR conditions across the area tomorrow morning and
through the afternoon. Winds should favor NE once again at 5-7 kts,
though may be variable at times with influence of a front
approaching from the northwest. Continued TS mention for CKV in a
PROB30 due to timing uncertainties, and probabilities were too
low for TAF inclusion at BNA and MQY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  75  93  72 /  10  10  30  10
Clarksville    99  72  91  69 /  30  30  30  10
Crossville     89  68  86  67 /  10  10  50  20
Columbia       99  73  94  70 /  10  10  40  20
Cookeville     92  71  88  68 /  10  10  40  20
Jamestown      91  69  87  67 /  10  10  40  20
Lawrenceburg   96  72  93  69 /  10  10  50  20
Murfreesboro   98  73  94  70 /  10  10  40  20
Waverly        99  72  91  68 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore