989
FXUS64 KOHX 081109
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Above-normal temperatures with highs generally in the 90s
  expected through the week. Wednesday will be the hottest day of
  the week with heat indices near 100 degrees.

- Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday, but rain chances increase
  starting Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Satellite imagery this evening shows strong high pressure centered
over the Plains, and this feature will be setting back over the
southeastern US through Wednesday. Quiet night is ahead with only
a low chance for patchy fog and lows in the 60s to low-70s.
Temperatures will be on the rise Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking in
the mid-90s west of the Plateau. Some CAMs are picking up on a
few isolated showers Tuesday. Not sure how likely this is with
strong subsidence, but PWATs of 1.3 inches are right around
average so perhaps this warm atmosphere can help generate a couple
showers. The NBM has picked up on this as well and has introduced
low PoPs (10-20%) into the forecast. At any rate, most of the
area will stay dry, and dry conditions expected on Wednesday.
Wednesday will also be the hottest day of the week with heat
indices near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Troughing to our north sends a front south on Thursday. Moisture
streaming into the area ahead of the front will cause
rain/thunderstorm chances to increase Thursday into Friday. Forecast
soundings still don`t show much of a severe threat with poor lapse
rates and weak shear at or less than 30 knots. But with forcing from
the front, we may have to watch to see if a low strong to severe
threat presents itself. Low to medium rain chances will linger this
weekend with southerly flow and a couple shortwaves tracking through
the area. As far as temperatures go, they`ll cool some Thursday into
the weekend with the breakdown of the high and periods of rain, but
highs still look to range from the upper-80s into the low-90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected across Middle Tennessee for the TAF
period. Could see some patchy fog this morning, very isolated.
Should clear out around 14z. Winds will be out of the SE around
5-10 knots, with some gusts between 15-20 knots after 15z. Gusts
will lessen after 0z on the 9th.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  72  94  74 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    93  72  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
Crossville     84  63  86  64 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       93  70  95  71 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     87  67  89  69 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      85  66  87  68 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   90  69  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  70  95  71 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        92  73  94  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Holley