273
FXUS64 KOHX 200528
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1128 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- High rain chances across Middle Tennessee Thursday afternoon
  through Friday night.

- Another high chance for rain late Monday through Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures lasting into early next week, then turning
  sharply colder by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low clouds and areas of fog will be in place overnight into
Thursday morning as a few showers begin to develop ahead of the
next big wx system. Some areas may have dense fog, but uncertain
how widespread that will be. Temperatures will be mild for this
time of year with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Deep, moist southwest flow will cause rain to spread across the
area Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening. A few
rumbles of thunder may be heard, but no strong thunderstorms are
expected. Some breaks in the rain will occur Thursday night, but
rain will become widespread again Friday as a deep upper low
pressure system moves out of the southwest states toward our
area. By the time the bulk of the rain moves out of our area late
Friday night, most locations will have received 1" to 1.50".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Post-frontal showers will taper off Saturday with a drier and
slightly cooler (but still above normal) period from midday
Saturday through Sunday. Then, another similar looking system will
come in for Monday through Tuesday with another soaking, roughly
1" rainfall. Once again, some storms will be possible, but we are
not looking for severe wx.

Following the rainy system next week, a major pattern change will
occur with an Arctic front bringing much colder air by
Thanksgiving with cold conditions for the next weekend heading
into the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low clouds are expected to impact the terminals through the taf
period with MVFR/IFR cigs prevailing for the majority of the time.
There could be periods where the low level clouds scatter enough
for VFR conditions briefly. In addition to the low clouds, fog is
expected to drop visibilities at CKV/SRB/CSV to IFR/LIFR through
12-14z. Showers will lift from south to north and impact the
terminals through the afternoon and evening. Instability will be
minimal so thunder was not mentioned. Winds will be around 5 kts
or less for the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  67  60  73 /  10 100  90  80
Clarksville    48  65  58  72 /  10 100 100  90
Crossville     48  68  57  68 /   0  70  90  90
Columbia       52  72  60  73 /  10 100  80  90
Cookeville     51  67  58  70 /   0  80 100  80
Jamestown      49  66  56  69 /   0  70 100  80
Lawrenceburg   52  73  60  72 /  10  90  70  90
Murfreesboro   52  69  60  73 /  10  90  90  90
Waverly        51  65  58  71 /  20 100  90  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan