272
FXUS64 KOHX 221724
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- 20-60% chance for showers/storms across the south and east this
  afternoon/evening. Patchy fog possible for the same areas
  tonight.

- Warm through the week with daily episodes of scattered showers
  and thunderstorms through Saturday. Severe weather threat
  remains very low.

- Drier conditions, with temperatures well above normal early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

High pressure is in the area today, centered to our north currently.
This is promoting a light northeasterly wind behind a front that
is currently stalling to our south. Much of the area, mainly east
of I-65, is experiencing cloud cover from a weakening batch of
convection, which is overrunning the front. All that to say, it`s
a pretty nice day out there. Highs in the 70s to near 80 are
forecast this afternoon with warmest temperatures west of I-65
where the most sunshine will be. I`ve maintained mention of iso-
sct showers or storms across the Plateau region later this
afternoon and early evening where some diurnally-driven activity
could initiate along the moisture/CAPE gradient depicted on hi-
res guidance. For tonight, calm conditions are expected with lows
in the 50s. Depending on cloud cover, patchy fog (perhaps locally
dense), is possible for areas along-south of I-40 and across the
Plateau.

The forecast isn`t much different for tomorrow. We`ll transition to
a more zonal, split flow aloft with a low-level ridge establishing
to our southeast. This should support a light southerly flow in the
boundary layer and a gradual increase in PWs across Middle TN.
Additional afternoon and evening iso/sct convection remains
forecast with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s - a few
degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Middle TN will remain in between the northern and southern jet
streams Thursday into the weekend which will place us in a "weaker"
flow aloft situation. However, there`s signs for 2-3 shortwave
perturbations to trickle through the area with a steady increase in
moisture and instability into Friday. Perhaps the most notable
shortwave is this day which could translate to a weak surface low
moving just north of the Ohio Valley. Thus, Friday afternoon will be
our busiest day in terms of rain chances, but it`s too early to
assume any concern for severe weather or flooding. We`re
transitioning into a time of year where mesoscale considerations
become more influencing. Something to keep an eye on, but no
worries right now. The main theme will be a continuation of warm
weather and daily chances for showers/storms.

Sunday through Tuesday should feature a decline in overall rain
chances owing to a drier airmass behind the exiting system Friday
night/Saturday morning. However, medium-range guidance and
ensembles suggest a more amplified pattern next week with a deep-
layer ridge establishing across the East, and a trough across the
West. This could foster temperatures well above normal with a
chance for highs near 90 by Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Mainly VFR conditions at mid-state terminals. The only exception
is CSV and it should return to VFR by 20Z. Winds will remain light
(less than 10 kts) and northeasterly. As winds calm tonight, look
for IFR to LIFR cigs/vis to return to CSV/SRB around 06-08Z.
Improvement to MVFR possible by 14Z/Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  82  62  83 /  10  30  30  60
Clarksville    54  81  61  82 /   0  10  20  40
Crossville     54  76  57  75 /  30  50  40  70
Columbia       58  81  60  82 /  20  40  20  60
Cookeville     57  77  59  77 /  20  50  40  70
Jamestown      54  77  57  77 /  20  50  40  70
Lawrenceburg   59  79  60  80 /  30  40  20  50
Murfreesboro   57  82  61  82 /  20  40  20  60
Waverly        56  82  61  82 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Unger