Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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468
FXUS64 KOHX 121102
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
602 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Rain chances return next weekend.

- Temperatures slightly warm into the low to mid 80s through the
  end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

An area of low pressure to the SE shifts further E as high
pressure builds over the SE U.S. As high pressure remains the
dominate feature aloft, pleasant weather will continue for Middle
TN. Feeling the fall season upon us, afternoon highs will remain
in the upper 70s to around 80 through Monday. With little flow
aloft, winds will be thermally driven, staying generally light and
out of the NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Dry weather sticks around through the end of the week as high
pressure sticks around. By Friday, the axis of a mid-level ridge
moves over Middle TN. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs approaching the mid 80s. A
short wave trough then moves overhead through the weekend. This
will bring rain chances back to the forecast. Latest models
suggest a deep trough developing Saturday into Sunday, with a mid-
level jet between 60-70 kts. This could offer our first severe
weather risk that we`ve seen in a while. That said, we will need
to monitor model trends through the week and see how the trough
progression shifts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions persist this taf cycle with SKC conditions. Winds
will be mainly NNE less than 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  51  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    79  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     72  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       79  48  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     73  48  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      72  48  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   77  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   78  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        78  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13