580
FXUS64 KOHX 201149
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
649 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

- Daily scattered storms continue this weekend with localized
  flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds possible.

- A hot week is upon us with daily heat index values near or just
  above 105 for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of western Middle TN
  Sunday from 11AM-8PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The upper level ridge will start to build over us on Sunday. This
will bring warming temperatures with them pushing back into the
low to mid 90s. With dew points in the mid to upper 70s it will
feel more like 100-110 in the afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for areas west of the Plateau. We will still be on the
northern edge of the upper level ridge with vort maxes spinning
around it. That will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
once again in the afternoon and evening with chances mainly east
of I-65. The severe threat will be low but given the amount of
CAPE can`t rule out gusty winds with any stronger updrafts. Storm
motion will be similar today and will be a bit "quicker", this
will keep the localized flash flooding risk low but with PWATs
still above 1.75" heavy rain can be expected with thunderstorms.
Mainly dry conditions Sunday night with warm lows in the low to
mid 70s.

The upper level ridge will start to amplify on Monday keeping
highs in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat index values will once
again push to 100-110. The upper level ridge will be set up just
to our west and we will once again see vort maxes spin around it.
This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area
for the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will be the main threat
with thunderstorms but gusty winds will also be possible with any
stronger cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to amplify over the central
part of the country and over Middle TN. This will bring a hot week
with highs in the low to mid 90s and possibly some upper 90s mid
to late week. The humidity will stick around keeping afternoon
heat index values 100-110. Overnight lows will also remain warm in
the low to mid 70s. Sounding profile will continue to warm and
this will lower our thunderstorm threat. Still could see some
scattered thunderstorms Tuesday but after that chances should be
on the low side and just isolated. The heat will be the bigger
concern. With the extended period of hot temperatures we will see
major to some extreme heat risk by the middle part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

We start the day with some MVFR ceilings along the Cumberland
Plateau, which should scatter out by noon. The remainder of the
TAFs are VFR, with the exception of KCSV and KSRB, where PoPs are
actually high enough to warrant PROB30 groups for -SHRA mainly
during the afternoon. With a surface ridge situated to our
immediate east, the atmosphere is a bit drier today with greater
subsidence, and PoPs are too low elsewhere to be included in the
TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  96  76 /  30  10  40  20
Clarksville    94  77  95  76 /  20  10  30  20
Crossville     87  70  89  68 /  50  20  60  30
Columbia       94  74  96  74 /  20  10  30  20
Cookeville     89  72  90  71 /  50  20  60  30
Jamestown      88  71  89  69 /  60  30  70  30
Lawrenceburg   92  73  94  73 /  30  10  40  20
Murfreesboro   95  74  96  73 /  30  20  50  20
Waverly        94  75  94  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TNZ005>009-023>029-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose