262
FXUS64 KOHX 220357
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1057 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect through Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storm will decrease through the next
  couple of days (10 to 20 percent midweek), then increase again
  late week (30 to 60 percent this weekend).

- Widespread severe wx is not expected, but a few storms each
  afternoon will produce very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
  and localized gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Dangerous heat will continue to be the main forecast concern as
an upper level ridge builds over the region. A Heat Advisory will
continue with heat index values expected to reach 105 to 109 for
many areas through Wednesday. Wednesday looks like the hottest day
of this heat wave. Sinking and drier air under the ridge will
result in lower, but not zero storm coverage midweek. Storm
features will remain the same with potential for downpours,
lightning, and gusty winds peaking in the heat of the late
afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, there is some concern for patchy dense fog at night,
particularly overnight into Tuesday morning in areas that had
heavy downpours Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The center of the upper ridge will shift east on Thursday, allowing
hot temperatures to ease by a degree or 2. Some spots may still be
reaching advisory criteria heat index levels, but the heat will
be trending a little lower. Storm chances will creep up only
slightly into the 20 to 30 percent range.

Flattening of the ridge, increased moisture depth, and passage of
some weak upper impulses to our north will lead to increasing
thunderstorm coverage for the weekend (30 to 60 percent).
Temperatures will be a little more tolerable, but still triple
digit heat index values each afternoon.

Looking into next week, the ridge may build up again Monday and
Tuesday before the ridge re-centers out over the plains by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Patchy fog will be possible after 06z and could be locally dense at
times mainly over the Plateau. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. Fog will lift by 14z with VFR conditions
returning. Northerly winds up to 6 knots. We will once again see a
chance for pop up thunderstorms after 18z but the coverage will be
much less widespread than Monday, with the lower coverage confidence
is too low to add it to the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  94  75  96 /  40  30   0  10
Clarksville    75  93  74  95 /  20  30   0  10
Crossville     68  88  68  88 /  50  30   0  20
Columbia       74  93  74  94 /  40  50  10  20
Cookeville     70  89  70  91 /  50  30   0  20
Jamestown      69  88  67  90 /  40  30   0  20
Lawrenceburg   73  92  72  93 /  40  50  10  20
Murfreesboro   73  94  72  96 /  40  40   0  20
Waverly        73  93  74  95 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller