970
FXUS64 KOHX 072340
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Medium chance for storms, low chance for severe storms later
  this evening. Wind will be the main concern.

- Other than some lingering showers over the Plateau, Sunday
  should be dry for most, but unsettled weather will continue next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

In the midst of doing a forecast update this evening and wanted to
talk about the thunderstorm potential overnight. While this
afternoon`s activity has moved off into East TN, we aren`t
completely out of the woods. The last several runs of CAMs continue
to develop storms south of I-40 shortly before midnight. With
instability at that time running 500-1000 J/Kg and shear values
around 35 kts, at least a couple strong to severe storms will be
possible through about 3 am. Lapse rates are not great, so I lean
more towards the strong side vs severe, but they will need to be
monitored.

Tired of the storms? Tomorrow still looks pretty dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 822 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An MCS is on track to move into Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
Before we get into it, I have to acknowledge that today is another
low confidence day when it comes to storm coverage and strength.
A lot of times with these set ups, we can predict trends, but for
the details, it is more of a nowcast situation, making forecast
decisions on what is happening in real time as things develop. The
last few runs of CAMs have been trending the main line of
convection slightly further north, impacting more of Middle TN,
rather than just the southern portions along the TN/AL border.
Forecast soundings for BNA have also trended up will a little more
instability ahead of the line, but still remain less than what we
saw Friday. That said, there will be more low-level wind shear (especially
for areas south of I-40), and comparable precipitable water
values.

Basically, this just means everything is on the table today. The
main threats continue to be damaging winds and heavy rain, with a
lesser chance of large hail, and a low tornado threat. That said,
there is the potential for some supercell development ahead of the
main line, in the warm-air advection regime. If the ingredients
line up, we could see a period of increased hail and tornado
potential, but we will have to wait and see how things trend
before there is any sort of confidence in this scenario. The
window for expected severe storms remains about the same, running
from about 18Z to 23Z (give or take an hour), with convective
activity dropping off considerably once the MCS exits the mid
state by late afternoon or early evening.

Looking ahead, rain and storm chances will taper off on Sunday,
with a very low severe threat. There will be some lingering
showers over the Plateau, but most will see dry conditions with
increasing sunshine through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 822 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

We have been placed in a slight risk for Monday for another
weakening MCS/damaging wind threat. Models are struggling to
handle the development of the MCS as it moves across the south.
The 06z HRRR seems to want to trend things more south, but the 06z
RRFS has more widespread storms redeveloping across Middle TN
Monday afternoon as the mid-level trough axis increases our low-
mid level shear. This once again leads to a tricky and low-
confidence forecast, depending greatly on how the MCS develops
and interacts with the dynamics in place. We will continue to
monitor Monday`s situation and adjust messaging as confidence
grows and a clearer solution begins to present itself.

Looking into mid next week and beyond, there are signals pointing
towards dryer conditions has high pressure builds from the south.
Expect warming temperatures, with highs consistently around 90
degrees, starting Wednesday and continuing into next weekend. As
far as rain chances, they are looking pretty minimal by mid next
week, with some increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
towards the end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Made some significant adjustments to the forecast with this
issuance, removing the IFR overnight. It looks now to be only
MVFR cigs starting for everyone around 11-13Z and last through the
morning hours. VFR should return for everyone by 18Z. Winds will
be light to calm overnight, but become breezy by mid-morning
tomorrow, with westerly gusts of 15-20 kts through sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  86  67  85 /  70  10  20  70
Clarksville    69  84  66  81 /  50   0  40  70
Crossville     64  79  60  81 /  80  30  10  70
Columbia       69  84  65  84 /  70  10  20  80
Cookeville     66  79  62  81 /  80  20  10  70
Jamestown      64  79  60  81 /  90  30  10  70
Lawrenceburg   68  84  64  84 /  70  20  10  70
Murfreesboro   69  85  64  86 /  70  10  10  70
Waverly        67  82  64  80 /  60   0  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Unger