876
FXUS64 KOHX 021556
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1056 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Below normal temperatures continue with afternoon highs in the
  80s continues through the middle of next week.

- Most of Middle TN will see drier weather this afternoon with
  low to medium rain chances remaining for areas along the
  Plateau. Higher rain chances (50-70%) return Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorm threat is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

What an early August morning! Temperatures are still in the 70s at
this hour with the eastern third of the area still pretty cloudy.
Some scattered showers have developed in East Tennessee and more
activity is expected to develop along the eastern slopes of the
plateau this afternoon. Some of that activity may impact the eastern
counties of our CWA. For the rest of the area, we`ll remain dry
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Sunday will be cooler, but we
will see more shower and storm coverage as an inverted surface
trough develops as a shortwave moves through the area. Expect more
clouds and temperatures topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The upper air pattern will remain wavy to start the next work week.
Some scattered storms will be around Monday afternoon, but it
will be less widespread compared to Sunday as we`ll be between
troughs. Rain and storm chances will increase on Tuesday as
another trough approaches the area. This troughing will be slow to
move through the area, so higher PoPs will remain in the forecast
for Wednesday. The trough weakens in place as we move into
Thursday so rain chances will decrease but not completely be gone
for Thursday and Friday. As far as temperatures in the extended,
we`ll keep the highs in the 80s likely through Friday with the
troughy pattern. Temperatures look like they`ll start to creep
into the lower 90s as we get into next weekend. Remember folks, it
is early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Morning observations show patches of MVFR cigs near SRB, with IFR
cigs reported at CSV. This will likely persist through a good
portion of the morning. While cigs improve by the afternoon, I`ve
maintained PROB30s for TS potential. Additional SHRA potential is
forecast after ~09z with MVFR cig/vis at the end of the period.

Elsewhere (BNA, MQY, CKV), TAFs are a VFR wind forecast with
prevailing NE winds at 7-10 kts through the afternoon and
occasional clouds. There`s increasing rain chances and MVFR cig
potential for the next TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  69  82  68 /   0  20  50  50
Clarksville    85  65  83  67 /   0   0  30  30
Crossville     79  65  73  61 /  40  60  80  30
Columbia       87  68  80  65 /  10  10  50  20
Cookeville     82  66  76  64 /  20  50  80  30
Jamestown      79  65  75  62 /  30  50  80  40
Lawrenceburg   85  68  79  64 /  10  20  60  10
Murfreesboro   86  69  80  66 /  10  30  60  40
Waverly        85  64  83  64 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Sizemore