570
FXUS64 KOHX 251110
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Friday evening and
  temperatures are expected to get hotter again Sunday through
  Wednesday of next week.

- Low chances for afternoon showers and storms Friday. Medium
  chances for afternoon storms this weekend.

- Any storms that develop each afternoon will produce very heavy
  rainfall and frequent lightning, along with the potential for
  localized gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Without a doubt, today was the quietest radar day we`ve had in
a while. I don`t think I saw any returns this afternoon or this
evening. Afternoon cu has cleared out and if it wasn`t for this heat
and humidity, it`d be a nice night for star gazing. However, I`ll
stick with the A/C. Little to no fog is expected tonight due to the
lack of rain today. Tomorrow should be more of the same, but I do
expect to see a little more on the radar tomorrow afternoon. Much
like any other day this summer, any storms that do develop will
carry a heavy rain, lightning and gusty wind risk. That said, the
risk of those is low.

In regards to the heat headlines, I`m going to let tomorrow`s Heat
Advisory remain in place, though we`ll be right on the edge of not
needing one. A few places west of the Plateau should reach Heat
Index values of 105, but as we get into Saturday and the upper ridge
axis sits over the Atlantic seaboard, we should fall short of Heat
Advisory criteria. Because of this, I`m going to refrain from
issuing another and we`ll have to focus on the low to medium chance
for showers and storms on Saturday. I don`t think coverage will be
all that much, but should be a little more than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

As Sunday rolls around, the upper ridge is expected to start
drifting back to the west. As it does, temperatures will once again
start to climb. Each day from Sunday to Wednesday should get
progressively warmer, with Tuesday and Wednesday still looking the
hottest. NBM probs remain around 70% for reaching triple digit air
temperatures in a few places each day. The biggest question in the
extended is what kind of boundary layer flow we end up with on
Wednesday. Both the Euro and GFS are now suggesting northerly flow.
This could relax dew points and give us a better chance of reaching
triple digits. Also, the GFS is showing better convection chances,
which could push us in the other direction (slightly cooler). So
we`ll have to iron those details out over the next few days. In any
event, both long range models continue to show the extreme values
falling off for the second half of next week and providing Middle TN
with a much needed break by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

VFR. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and
confidence remains low on coverage so do not have mention in TAF
for now. Additional model data this morning may allow for
increased confidence on timing of afternoon storms. Southeast
winds around 5 to 10 knots expected during the day, becoming light
and variable later in the evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  76  94  77 /  30  10  20   0
Clarksville    93  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
Crossville     88  69  88  69 /  30  10  20  10
Columbia       93  73  92  75 /  30  10  20   0
Cookeville     90  72  89  72 /  30  10  20  10
Jamestown      88  71  89  71 /  30  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   90  72  90  73 /  40  10  20   0
Murfreesboro   93  74  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
Waverly        91  72  91  74 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Barnwell