027
FXUS64 KOHX 111727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1127 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Temperatures will rebound quickly this week with highs
  returning to the 60s and 70s by Friday.

- Dry through the end of this week. There is a low 20-30% chance
  of rain and storms late weekend.

- Unsettled, wet weather is in store next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A frigid start to this Veterans Day. Some of the lowest
temperatures felt this morning include 14F in Monterey, 17F in
Woodbury, and 19F in Bethpage just to name a few. Low to mid
teens were common, especially over areas that received measurable
snowfall yesterday. Though it`s still quite cool out, temperatures
have warmed above freezing for the majority of Middle TN under
mostly clear skies. A continued warming trend will ensue as
southwesterly gradient winds increase this afternoon, pulling in
warmer air. A building area of high pressure centered over the
southeast will keep winds on the gustier side today with gusts up
to 30 mph through this evening. Though it will be cool again
tonight with lows in the 30s, winds will remain sustained between
10-15 mph overnight, mitigating any frost or fog development. The
warmup will truly be felt Wednesday as the surface ridge expands
north, giving us full sun with afternoon highs in the low 50s /
mid 60s; a stark contrast to the last 48 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A building upper ridge resulting in dominating high pressure will
keep our weather quiet with continued warmth through the majority
of this week. We will see a slight increase in moisture and a
more considerable increase in temperatures by Friday as we ride
the outer rim of the eastward-bulding ridge that will push an
expansive warm front through the area. Temperatures Friday are
slated to reach into the low to mid 70s east of the Cumberland
Plateau, and even warmer by Saturday. Models are still hinting at
our next chance for rain and storms perhaps occuring this weekend,
though disagreement remains amongst the upper air patterns
between the various models. The NBM has maintained a low chance
around 20% for rain late Saturday night with higher chances closer
to 40% by Sunday. The signal for an unsettled, wet week remains
as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. The main focus of
the forecast will be the winds as SSW winds will be around 10 kts
through the evening with gusts up to 20-25 kts. The gusts will
decrease after 03-06z with sustained winds dropping to 5-10 kts.
35-45 kt 2000 ft winds will remain overnight so a period of LLWS
was included at all of the taf sites. Surface winds will increase
to around 10 kts again after 12-14z with gusts up to 20 kts after
15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  39  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    51  39  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     43  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       51  38  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     44  34  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      43  34  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   50  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   50  37  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan