330
FXUS64 KOHX 050348
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1048 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms
  late Friday afternoon and evening for most areas along and north
  of I-40. The risk level is 1 out of 5 elsewhere. Damaging winds
  will be the primary threat with large hail and localized
  flooding possible.

- Friday will be hot and humid with many areas in the 90s. Much
  cooler air will follow this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Scattered storms produced local downpours and gusty winds Thursday
afternoon, with most activity moving away and weakening around
sunset. Generally quiet conditions followed with patchy fog expected
in the late night and early morning hours, especially for areas
that received rainfall. Thursday evening satellite imagery showed
a thick plume of smoke in the high atmosphere steaming from fires
in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This smoke had
reached skies over Missouri, and the smoke will continue to
spread, making for a milky sky over Middle TN Friday. The HRRR
smoke model shows most of this smoke staying aloft.

We are continuing to watch late afternoon and evening for the return
of scattered storms including a slight risk for severe wx. Southwest
winds ahead of a cold front will really heat things up with
temperatures jumping up into the low to mid 90s for many areas
with heat index values near 100. The heat and humidity will push
cape values into the 1500-2500 range as deep layer shear increases
to 30-40KT. Several models are showing a significant compact
shortwave moving along the KY/TN line late afternoon potentially
setting off rapid storm development.

It looks like the first cells will start in our northwest around 3
or 4 pm with storms becoming more numerous as they spread across the
Mid State through the evening. The cold front (or cold pool) will
spread northwest to southeast across the area through the evening
quickly pushing the main severe threat to the Plateau and southern
counties around sunset. The main concern will be damaging winds.
Forecast soundings show invert V profiles supporting downburst
winds gusts. Although the tornado risk is low, it is not zero as
there may be a narrow window of enhanced SRH just ahead of cold
front.

After the cold front, a good deal of elevated instability will
remain in place as clusters of showers and storms continue, some
with heavy rainfall. This post frontal convective activity may
last well into the night. As mentioned by the previous forecaster,
those with outdoor plans Friday evening will need to monitor wx
conditions and be prepared to shelter if storms approach.

Post frontal showers will linger into Saturday morning before the
drier and cooler air pushes the moisture out of the area with
clearing skies Saturday afternoon. Post frontal highs will be
mainly in the 70s with lows mostly upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

The shot of cool and dry air this weekend will just be another
"false fall". An upper level high pressure center will build up to
our west with dry conditions and warming temperatures through
next week. Most days will climb into the 80s, and some 90s are
possible by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR conditions for the evening as showers and thunderstorms exit
to the east. Overall we will see VFR conditions for the overnight
with just a low chance of patchy fog mainly north of Nashville and
over the Plateau. Things will remain dry into the afternoon with a
line of showers and thunderstorms pushing in from the north after
the TAF period. Winds will be light out of the south tonight
picking up to 6-12 knots with gusts to 18 knots after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  95  63  76 /   0  50  80  40
Clarksville    64  94  58  77 /   0  60  80  30
Crossville     62  85  62  72 /  10  10  70  60
Columbia       67  95  62  76 /  10  40  70  40
Cookeville     63  88  62  72 /  10  40  80  50
Jamestown      62  87  62  71 /  10  20  80  60
Lawrenceburg   66  93  62  75 /  10  30  70  50
Murfreesboro   66  95  62  75 /  10  60  80  50
Waverly        65  94  57  76 /   0  50  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller