103
FXUS64 KOHX 220438
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1038 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A large upper level low pressure system was centered over MD/PA.
Clouds spinning around the low have spread southward to areas
along and northeast of I-24. The clouds will continue to spread
southward across the Mid State overnight. Snow flurries have been
in the air across the Upper Cumberland today and this evening, and
the intensity of the snowflakes is expected to pick up a little
overnight as a disturbance crosses the area. A dusting of snow is
expected by daybreak for the higher elevations of the Upper
Cumberland, and there is a medium chance for the highest points
from Jamestown to Monterey to receive up to 1 inch. No travel
problems are expected, so there is no need for any advisories in
our area. Otherwise, the night will be chilly and blustery with
lows in the 30s and wind chills down in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A rather blustery day is ongoing across the mid state. Temperatures
are generally in the 45F-50F range but those winds are as high as 20-
25 mph in our northwest. That produces wind chill values of around
35F-40F. Certainly a shock given the warm weather we have
experienced. We have a few showers working across southern KY now.
Some of this activity is mixing in with some snow across eastern
portions of that state. Otw, a rather large shield of cloudiness is
moving our way. Latest sat imagery shows the broken sky cover now
over our northern half.

We will be dealing with a disturbance which will drop south tonight.
An upper low should reach the Maryland area tonight with a trough
axis extending westward toward northern KY. Curvature and shear
loses its potency that far west however, but we still foresee some
moisture reaching our northern Plateau, particularly after 06Z.
Freezing levels should easily reach snow support status early this
evening. Snow amounts are expected to remain at or below 1 inch
throughout the northern Plateau. Perhaps 1 or 2 locations could
reach an inch. Otherwise, the rather warm ground will lessen the
impact on roadway surfaces and act to delay the accumulation onset.
Wind direction looks like 280 degrees so some weak upslope component
will be there. Otw, overnight lows will be in the 30s area wide.

Moving on, clouds remain for Friday but winds will back off some. It
will remain on the colder side as clouds and a continuing northerly
flow prevails. Friday night will bring about a decrease in
cloudiness. The surface high by 12z Sat will be over MS, so this
will likely be the coldest night thus far. However, we are still not
expecting freezing temps at BNA with 37F officially in the forecast.
Some other areas however, will see lows down to at or just below
freezing. A warmup will begin Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

In the extended forecast, mild conditions return with a southerly
flow in advance of a Monday night fropa. Showers are expected for
Monday out ahead of the system. Upper pattern looks rather zonal so
not expecting too much in the way of qpf. Perhaps a quarter inch. A
weak surface high will follow the boundary but a warm frontal
passage will follow. The orientation of this boundary will become
parallel to the upper flow with lower level dynamics on the
increase. Rain showers and perhaps some tstm activity looks likely
for Wednesday. On T-Day, the associated boundary will move to our
southeast with some post frontal rainfall and cooler temperatures.
Total rainfall amounts for the Wed/Thu period looks like 1 to 2
inches.

For the extended temps, I am still not showing a freeze for BNA over
the next 7 days. This puts us though to the 28th of November. That
will break the record for the latest freeze ever, which is Nov 27th.
Right now, my best guess is a BNA freeze on the 30th. Otherwise,
mild for the most part for late November. Thanksgiving day, however,
is looking wet and turning cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Terminals will start out with VFR conditions at 06Z, but an area
of MVFR cigs will move southward into Middle TN starting around
08Z and continuing through 16Z. Scattered light snow showers will
impact CSV and perhaps SRB late in the night. Brisk northwest
winds will continue with gusts to 20KT at times through the taf
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  51  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    36  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     29  43  32  51 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       34  50  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     33  46  33  51 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      30  44  35  50 /  30   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   33  50  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   35  51  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        35  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....13