975
FXUS64 KOHX 081800
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A surface boundary between high pressure to our N and a cold front
to our S has been streaming low clouds and drizzle over Middle TN
this morning. Satellite imagery does show signs of these clouds
eroding from N to S. This trend is expected to continue through
the afternoon, allowing us to say hello to some sunshine before
the day is over. Temperatures have been slow to warm with the
added cloud cover, but they are starting to fall in line reaching
the upper 60s. Depending on how fast these clouds can move out,
highs today should climb into the low 70s. Overnight, a much drier
airmass will move in from the N so not expecting much fog
development other than around bodies of water. Overnight lows will
be slightly cooler in the low 50s, even upper 40s possible across
our TN/KY bordering counties and the Upper Cumberland.

A front begins to move into Middle TN Saturday afternoon bringing
respectable rainfall amounts through the weekend. Not expecting
any severe storms, but some thunder is possible with CAMs
suggesting marginal wind shear and lapse rates with weak CAPE.
Timing will likely need more fine tuning, but as of right now,
expecting precipitation to move in by 12z Saturday with heaviest
rain through the late afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Rain will be ongoing through Saturday night with latest timing
suggesting precip moving out by Monday afternoon. With the
additional moisture support from Hurricane Rafael, modest
accumulations look likely ranging from 1+" along the Cumberland
Plateau to 2-3" for areas west of I-65. Sunday, pressure gradients
tighten slightly causing winds to gust around 25 mph through the
early morning and afternoon before weakening through the evening.
Look for a drying trend Monday and Tuesday. Not much to say there,
but by Wednesday, another cold front will bring rain followed by
much more seasonal temperatures towards Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low cloud deck with MVFR/IFR cigs across airports this morning
will continue to erode this afternoon with VFR conditions
expected by 19-20Z. NOrtheast winds 5-10 knots this afternoon
will decrease to around 5 knots tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  51  74  61 /   0   0  60  80
Clarksville    70  48  70  60 /   0   0  60  90
Crossville     71  47  71  52 /   0   0  40  70
Columbia       73  50  75  59 /   0   0  80  90
Cookeville     70  50  74  56 /   0   0  60  80
Jamestown      69  47  73  54 /   0   0  50  80
Lawrenceburg   73  50  76  58 /   0   0  70  80
Murfreesboro   74  51  76  59 /   0   0  60  80
Waverly        70  50  70  60 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Shamburger