750
FXUS64 KOHX 091204
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- High probability for a widespread hard freeze Sunday and Monday
  nights.

- Low to medium chance (30-50%) for light snow accumulation
  across the Plateau Sunday evening through early Monday morning.

- Temperatures rebound near normal values by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Everything is on track forecast-wise. The cold front that came
through overnight has made it to KCSV, and gusty NW winds and low
ceilings are going to be with us throughout the day and into the
evening most areas. Light precipitation is expected to develop
during the evening as an upper trough swings through the region.
By then, there won`t be a great deal of moisture left, but the
cold advection should be enough to squeeze out scattered flurries
at many spots, with light accumulations (1/2" or less) possible
along the Cumberland Plateau. Today and tomorrow are going to be
mostly cloudy and blustery, but by the end of the week, we`ll be
enjoying beach weather again and will forget this Arctic blast
ever happened.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Big changes are on the way starting with a cold front that will
move across Mid TN overnight accompanied by a narrow band of
showers. The front will be followed by a blustery and colder
Sunday. High temperatures will likely occur around daybreak with
falling or steady temps through the day. With actual temps in the
40s much of the day, gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph at times
will drop wind chills into the 30s.

The big changes are associated with a deep, cold trough digging
rapidly across the eastern states. A spoke of energy diving
around the trough will come in Sunday afternoon and evening
bringing a few showers, and by the end of the day, some snow
flurries as well. During the evening, the disturbance combined
with upslope flow will create snow showers with potential light
accumulations on the Plateau. Most of the Upper Cumberland will
have less than one half inch, but favored high elevations from
Jamestown to Monterey could have one half to 1 inch of snow Sunday
evening through early Monday morning. No major travel problems are
expected, but a few slick spots could occur on elevated surfaces
where the snow accumulates.

But, the main story is the blast of cold air with temperatures
plunging down into the low to mid 20s by daybreak Monday. During
the daytime Monday, temperatures will warm only into the 30s to
maybe around 40 with continued blustery northwest winds making it
feel colder.

As the core of upper level low pressure moves overhead on Monday,
we will keep snow shower chances for the Plateau and scattered
sprinkles/flurries elsewhere. Cycles of melting and new snow
showers will limit accumulations for the Plateau with most areas
staying at less than half an inch. Elsewhere, no accumulations are
expected.

Monday night will be the coldest period as skies clear and winds
settle. Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

As quickly as the cold snap arrived, the upper trough will move
out Tuesday and low level winds will flip to southerly. This will
set the stage for a quick temperature rebound, with near-normal
readings returning by Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are
expected late week with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s.
The next chance for rain moves in next Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A cold front has reached the Cumberland Plateau, with gusty NW
winds now or soon to affect our terminals. MVFR ceilings are also
filling in behind the surface boundary as a swath of wrap-around
moisture rotates across Middle Tennessee. Winds will remain gusty
throughout the day, and MVFR ceilings will linger through the day
before improving most places during the evening and overnight.
We`ve also included periods of a light rain/snow mix after 00Z as
light precipitation coincides with an upper trough passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      49  27  40  24 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    47  25  40  23 /  20  10  10  10
Crossville     50  20  30  16 /  40  60  40  30
Columbia       48  25  40  20 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     50  23  33  19 /  50  40  30  20
Jamestown      49  22  31  19 /  60  80  60  50
Lawrenceburg   49  24  38  19 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   49  26  38  21 /  20  20  10  10
Waverly        46  24  39  21 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose