288
FXUS64 KOHX 040521
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Summer like weather this week with warm temperatures.

- Weather pattern becomes more unsettled late week into the
  weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms.

- Some storms Friday and Saturday may be severe with damaging
  winds and very heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

We finally got a small taste of summer today as Nashville reached 90
degrees for the first time this year. Wednesday will be similar
with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. A weak upper low
will drift northwestward out of Florida through the day which may
provide just enough lift for a couple scattered storms in the
southeastern part of the CWA. The ridge axis will move eastward
Wednesday into Thursday with southwesterly upper flow slowly
becoming more zonal. A surface boundary will sag southward from
the Midwest toward the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Showers and
storms will develop ahead of the boundary as more moisture-rich
air streams into the warm sector. The highest rain and storm
chances in our area will be in the northwest Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The boundary will continue to sag south on Friday with moisture
pooling just ahead of it. This will increase dew points into the 70s
in our area and increase PoPs. With the warm, humid air mass we will
be quite unstable Friday afternoon. With 25-30 kts of bulk shear,
storms will be able to sustain themselves for a while. We`ll have
to keep an eye to the west of our area for a potential MCS
developing and moving along the zonal flow into our area. We`ll
also have to watch storms developing along the surface boundary.
Soundings Friday afternoon look very moisture-ladened with
damaging winds and very heavy rainfall being the main threats.
Saturday will be similar to Friday with the front not making much
progress through the area.

A shortwave will move through the area on Sunday, but models have
the focus south of the area in northern Mississippi and Alabama.
So in our area, the highest rain chances look to be along the
Alabama/Tennessee state line. As we move into next week, general
troughing means we will stay unsettled. Temperatures over the
extended period are expected to be around normal with highs in the
80s and lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Surface and upper high are both anchored to our east, so Middle
Tennessee remains under a southerly flow. We`ll get to enjoy one
more day of benign weather Wednesday before the next rain chances
begin to emerge. TAFs are VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  71  89  72 /  10   0  20  10
Clarksville    89  70  87  71 /   0  10  60  10
Crossville     83  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  20
Columbia       88  68  88  70 /  10   0  20  10
Cookeville     85  66  84  67 /  10  10  30  20
Jamestown      85  63  83  66 /  10  10  40  20
Lawrenceburg   88  67  87  69 /  20   0  20  10
Murfreesboro   90  67  89  70 /  10   0  20  10
Waverly        88  68  87  69 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose