760
FXUS64 KOHX 232307
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The clouds are getting an `A` for effort, that`s for sure. They
managed to keep half of Middle TN blanketed in relative warmth last
night, only allowing areas south of I-40 and west of I-65 to drop
below freezing. Most everybody else saw morning lows in the 40s.
Since the sun came up, they are getting more than just a
participation trophy for clearing out of here. It`s a little slow,
but all of Middle TN should be basking in sunshine by early this
afternoon. This will leave us with highs in the low to middle 50s
before sunset. I haven`t messed with the NBM`s overnight
temperatures much. We`ll be clear with calm winds tonight, which
will lead to more people seeing below freezing temperatures, but the
bulk of spots that see the mercury fall below 32 will be
sheltered/valley locations across our south and east. After the cool
morning, tomorrow should be pretty fantastic with very mild
afternoon highs and more sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The upcoming week will be headlined by two weather systems. The
first should make its appearance in the mid-state Monday afternoon
and evening, preceded by breezy pressure gradient winds. With a
lack of instability associated with this system, thunder should be
non-existent and rainfall totals should relatively light. Cold
air similar to tonight will filter in behind Monday`s system, but
I don`t think it`ll touch the airmass coming in behind the second
system of the week.

Speaking of the second system of the week, there are still some
significant model differences regarding the placement of the surface
low. Depending on its trajectory, we could see a little thunder in
our southern counties Wednesday evening. However, I`ve leaned away
from this, so we can expect a good dousing of rain Wednesday night
through Thanksgiving Day. The bulk of ensembles suggest 1 to 2
inches for this holiday system, but there are about 15-20%
showing slightly more than that. Bottom line, this system is
going to be a real turkey.

There has been a little chatter about what the cold air behind this
system will do. It`s going to be chasing the precipitation. This
scenario is by far the most often occurring winterish scenario in
Middle TN: showers being chased by cold air and the big question
being whether they`ll meeting up for snow chances. For now, I`ll say
no. Forecast soundings dry out before cold enough air can get in
here, leaving everything we see liquidy. However, it`s pretty
stinkin` cold air behind this system. A big CP airmass is being seen
in all models and will likely bring us our coldest temperatures of
the season. Yes, it`s a week out, but next Saturday`s forecast
morning lows current sit in the low to mid 20s. If you`re counting,
that means if the first colder airmass of the week doesn`t get BNA
to freezing, we`ll break the record for the latest first fall freeze
currently November 27th, set in 2009.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period with just a few
cirrus clouds expected. Tonight, patchy fog will bring a few hours
of MVFR/IFR vis to SRB/CSV and possibly CKV as well but confidence
is low. Light to calm southerly winds tonight will increase and
become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      36  66  51  69 /   0   0   0  40
Clarksville    34  64  51  67 /   0   0   0  70
Crossville     28  61  42  64 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       32  65  49  69 /   0   0   0  30
Cookeville     33  61  46  65 /   0   0   0  50
Jamestown      30  62  45  65 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   32  64  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   32  65  50  69 /   0   0   0  30
Waverly        36  64  51  67 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Shamburger