281
FXUS64 KOHX 052338
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
538 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for strong to severe
  storms through about 10 PM this evening. Main impacts will be
  strong winds and small hail.

- High chance for rain continues into Thursday with a low chance
  for thunderstorms.

- Despite a warm-up Saturday, temperatures will fall Sunday and
  into next week with daily rounds of showers continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1040 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Surface obs late this morning show a warm front draped over
southern Middle TN, and there`s quite the difference in
temperatures. Across southern Middle TN, current temps are sitting
in the upper-50s to low-60s while on the other side of the front,
obs (like in Clarksville and Springfield) remain in the 40s. With
abundant cloud cover, don`t anticipate much of a warm-up this
afternoon, especially for those locations closer to the KY border.
There is plenty of moisture out there with the PWAT on this
morning`s sounding coming in at 0.90" - near the 90th percentile
for early February. And with southerly surface winds, would
anticipate that moisture will continue to be on the rise. This
will help fuel our shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon.

As a shortwave and a low-level jet moves into the area this
afternoon and tonight, wind shear will increase. Bulk shear is
expected to increase near 50 knots this afternoon. The limiting
factor will be instability - something that our abundant cloud
cover won`t help. Instability is still forecast to remain on the
weak side with HREF keeping the probability that SBCAPE rises
above 250 J/kg low. Mid-level lapse rates also aren`t great at
only 6-6.5 C/km. All of this to say that are severe threat through
this evening remains marginal. If storms can tap into some
instability, the main concern for any stronger storms remains wind
gusts near 50 mph and small hail. While there is an abundant
amount of shear, with storms likely remaining elevated, the
tornado threat remains very low.

While showers and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday, our
window for strong to severe storms should come to an end by 10pm
tonight. Through Thursday, most of the area should receive around
0.25 to 0.50 inches with higher totals near an inch favoring areas
near the KY border and the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1040 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Temperatures cool on Friday behind a front, which should also give
us a break in this more active precipitation pattern. Northerly
winds on Friday will be quick to become southerly again though,
allowing temperatures and moisture values to rebound quickly. This
will keep a low chance for showers and storms Saturday, but with
little instability present, don`t see a severe storm threat right
now. Temperatures will be on a roller-coaster as a strong cold
front barrels through Sunday morning. High temperatures Sunday
will likely be at least 20 degrees cooler compared to Saturday.
And temperatures will continue to fall into the new week with high
temperatures falling back into the 40s and overnight lows near
freezing. In addition, this more active pattern keeps shower
chances in the forecast each day, and temperatures look to cool
enough for the low chance for snow or a wintry mix for locations
near the KY border. At this time, don`t expect accumulations or
anything hazardous, but stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

What a messy set of TAFs. We begin the evening with TS in the
Nashville Metro area. Fortunately, existing storms are not likely
to affect any of the terminals. A warm front has moved northward
through Middle Tennessee today, so we find ourselves with a
southerly breeze and abundant moisture. We expect at least
scattered cells to persist throughout the night, although it is
difficult to pin down exact times when each terminal might be
affected, so the TEMPO groups we have included do not reflect the
greatest confident. We are more confident in the deteriorating
ceilings tonight and tomorrow, when a slow-moving cold front looks
to affect the mid state. Widespread showers are likely to develop
along the cold front, so tomorrow`s TEMPO groups are timed with
the fropa. There is some thunderstorm potential with the fropa,
but the probability of convection is low enough that we feel more
comfortable just forecasting showers for now. Winds will be
somewhat gusty tomorrow with a gradual shift to the WSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  72  45  58 /  70  90  80  20
Clarksville    52  69  40  55 /  90  80  60  10
Crossville     57  65  43  56 /  90  80  90  20
Columbia       61  72  45  58 /  50  70  80  30
Cookeville     59  67  44  56 /  90  80  90  20
Jamestown      56  65  40  53 /  90  80  80  20
Lawrenceburg   61  71  47  59 /  50  60  80  30
Murfreesboro   60  71  45  59 /  80  80  80  30
Waverly        57  69  42  55 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Rose