752
FXUS64 KOHX 042348
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
648 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures this weekend

- Forecast rain chances and amounts have increased for Sunday
  night through Wednesday. Tuesday looks like the wettest day
  overall with medium to high (50 to 80 percent) rain chances.

- Cooler temperatures late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

All is quiet across Middle TN, and no major changes have been made
to the forecast this evening. There is a low chance for patchy fog
overnight across portions of the Plateau. Another beautiful, but
still very warm, day is on tap Sunday as temperatures warm into
the mid and upper-80s with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A surface and upper level ridge centered along the Mid Atlantic
coast will keep our wx nice and dry through the rest of the
weekend. Daytimes will be sunny and very warm, perhaps touching
90 in some spots Sunday. Tonight will be clear and seasonably
cool with lows mostly from 55 to 60. A few patches of late night
fog will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Departure of high pressure to the east will allow southerly flow
to increase, bringing a surge of Gulf moisture Sunday night and
Monday. Scattered showers will develop, especially west of I-65.
Models vary with how vigorous lift will be during this time, thus
models vary considerably with rainfall coverage and amounts.
Generally, the rain looks scattered with amounts mostly less than
one quarter inch. However, a few ensemble members are showing
pockets of 1 inch rainfall amounts in our far west counties. This
potential for 1 inch of rain through Monday is less than 20
percent.

Rain chances will increase Monday night through Tuesday as a
trough approaches from the west and atmospheric instability
increases. Precipitable water values will climb over 1.7" which is
above the 90th percentile for the date. Lift does not look very
strong or focused, but with good moisture depth and instability
through the column, some areas, especially west of I-65, could
have decent amounts of rain approaching one inch on Tuesday. Some
embedded thunder will be possible, but the severe threat is low.

Over the past few days, models have been inconsistent with the
upcoming rain chances, but the latest trends have been wetter.
The large-scale pattern suggests some spots will have decent
rainfall amounts while others do not receive as much. To all
those who want significant relief from the dryness, may the odds
be ever in your favor.

After the front, cooler air will move in for pleasant conditions
late week. The pattern looks mostly quiet, but a disturbance will
bring low chances for scattered showers Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A pesky surface ridge remains the dominant weather feature
affecting Middle Tennessee this evening, so the TAFs are once
again VFR (with the possible exception of overnight radiation fog
at KSRB). Tomorrow, expect surface winds to increase from the SE
as the pressure gradient starts to right up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  88  67  84 /   0   0  10  30
Clarksville    59  89  65  80 /   0   0  10  40
Crossville     55  78  60  78 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       59  85  65  83 /   0   0  10  30
Cookeville     58  82  63  80 /   0   0  10  20
Jamestown      56  80  60  78 /   0   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   59  84  64  81 /   0   0  10  20
Murfreesboro   59  86  65  84 /   0   0  10  20
Waverly        60  85  65  80 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose