881
FXUS64 KOHX 081108
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
508 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Surface winds have shifted to the north now that a cold front has
pushed east of Middle Tennessee. So temperatures are nominally
cooler and widespread cloudiness and mist/fog blankets the mid
state early this morning. We can expect some clearing this
afternoon, but the next active weather system will move in
Saturday, with even better rain chances and higher QPF values than
the now-departed cold front produced.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 146 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

It`s going to be a rainy weekend. High rain chances will be with
us from Saturday through Sunday night. A deep trough extending
from a surface low over the Upper Midwest to a tropical system in
the Gulf of Mexico will be slow to depart Middle Tennessee. We can
expect some storms from this system, but the risk of severe storms
is going to be quite low. Mostly we can expect widespread showers.
At this time, storm total QPF values range from 1+" along the
Cumberland Plateau to 2-3" most areas west of I-65. This would be
a much more robust output than the last active weather system.
While PoPs and QPF values are relatively high with our weekend
cold front, the temperature change following the fropa will be
minimal. The next cold front, which looks to come through Middle
Tennessee Wednesday and Wednesday night, will bring a much more
substantial temperature drop despite much lower PoPs and QPF
values. So by this time next week, it will finally feel like
November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

IFR to VLIFR cats continue to plague Middle TN TAF sites. These
conditions are expected to improve today, however, it`ll be a
slow-go, with VFR returning at CKV by 18Z then improving at other
sites through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

Winds will remain less than 10 kts from the NNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  51  74  62 /   0   0  70  80
Clarksville    70  48  70  61 /   0   0  80  90
Crossville     71  47  71  52 /   0   0  50  60
Columbia       73  51  74  59 /   0   0  90  80
Cookeville     70  50  73  57 /   0   0  60  70
Jamestown      69  47  72  54 /   0   0  50  70
Lawrenceburg   73  51  75  59 /   0   0  80  70
Murfreesboro   74  51  75  59 /   0   0  70  70
Waverly        70  50  70  60 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger